Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.
problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Gaussian processes are conditioned on various types of data.
problem Exact inference in Gaussian processes is limited to linear-Gaussian settings.
method Established an equivalence between GPs and linear diffusion models, allowing for approximate inference in non-linear settings.
result A general-purpose GP inference scheme that handles various conditioning statements, including non-linear physics and natural language.
The paper shows how to infer conditional independence from non-Gaussian data.
problem Inferring conditional independence from non-Gaussian distributions.
method Developed a method to recover conditional independence structure from the precision matrix of generalized nonparanormal data.
result The conditional independence structure can be inferred from the precision matrix of generalized nonparanormal data.
Conditional diffusion models can approximate target distributions well with Gaussian-mixture reverse kernels.
problem Approximating target distributions in conditional diffusion models.
method Using finite Gaussian mixtures with ReLU-network logits as reverse kernels, reducing the problem to static conditional density approximation.
result The resulting neural reverse-kernel class is dense in conditional KL divergence under exact terminal matching.
This paper addresses the problem of scalable optimization for L1-regularized conditional Gaussian graphical models. Conditional Gaussian graphical models generalize the well-known Gaussian graphical models to conditional distributions to model the output network influenced by conditioning input variables. While highly …
A scalable online method for Gaussian processes that improves decision-making in various applications.
problem Scalability issues with Gaussian processes for online decision-making.
method Online variational conditioning (OVC) for SVGPs.
result OVC enables efficient online learning and decision-making with SVGPs.
Study on conditioning Gaussian measures on nonlinear observations, including representer theorem and mode estimation.
problem Conditioning Gaussian measures on nonlinear observations in Bayesian inference and machine learning.
method Representer theorem, novel mode definition, maximum a posteriori estimation, Laplace approximation.
result Identification of infinite-dimensional Gaussian and finite-dimensional non-Gaussian components in conditioned measures.
We describe various sets of conditional independence relationships, sufficient for qualitatively comparing non-vanishing squared partial correlations of a Gaussian random vector. These sufficient conditions are satisfied by several graphical Markov models. Rules for comparing degree of association among the vertices of…
A new method combines Gaussian graphical models for better distributed Gaussian process predictions.
problem Poor results from traditional DGP due to violated conditional independence assumption.
method Proposes using Gaussian graphical models to aggregate local predictions from subsets of data.
result Our method outperforms other state-of-the-art DGP approaches on both synthetic and real datasets.
New method uses Gaussian processes for solving linear PDEs with boundary conditions.
problem Solving linear PDEs with boundary conditions.
method Boundary Ehrenpreis--Palamodov Gaussian Processes (B-EPGPs).
result Significant accuracy and resource improvements over existing methods.
This work introduces efficient sampling methods for Gaussian processes by focusing on pathwise conditioning.
problem Intractable mathematical expressions in Gaussian process posteriors limit practical applications.
method Investigates a pathwise interpretation of conditioning to derive efficient sampling methods.
result Derives a general family of approximations that allow for efficient sampling of Gaussian process posteriors.
Often in machine learning, data are collected as a combination of multiple conditions, e.g., the voice recordings of multiple persons, each labeled with an ID. How could we build a model that captures the latent information related to these conditions and generalize to a new one with few data? We present a new model ca…
New method aggregates Gaussian experts by detecting conditional independence violations.
problem Aggregation of dependent Gaussian experts leads to sub-optimal solutions.
method Uses Gaussian graphical model to detect and correct conditional independence violations.
result Improves aggregation of Gaussian experts, outperforming SOTA DGP approaches.
New SQ lower bounds for NGCA without requiring chi-squared condition.
problem Proving SQ hardness for NGCA under moment-matching conditions.
method General SQ lower bound methodology applied to NGCA under moment-matching conditions.
result Proved near-optimal SQ lower bounds for NGCA without chi-squared condition.
We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. We define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals, derive a lower and an upper bound on the fractional Beth…
This paper considers inference over distributed linear Gaussian models using factor graphs and Gaussian belief propagation (BP). The distributed inference algorithm involves only local computation of the information matrix and of the mean vector, and message passing between neighbors. Under broad conditions, it is show…
The paper proves conditions for zero Gaussian curvature convex hypersurfaces to be hyperplanes.
problem Conditions for zero Gaussian curvature convex hypersurfaces to be hyperplanes.
method Proving Bernstein type theorems for entire convex graphical hypersurfaces with zero Gaussian curvature in Euclidean and Minkowski contexts.
result Zero Gaussian curvature convex hypersurfaces must be hyperplanes if the mean curvature goes to zero at infinity.
HTFM improves mode coverage and tail-statistic recovery for heavy-tailed data.
problem Tackles heavy-tailed data in various domains with rare events.
method Proposes a framework using clock-conditioned Gaussian sources and truncated logsignature features.
result Improves mode coverage, sample quality, and tail-statistic recovery over Gaussian flow matching and baselines.
This work shows that Gaussian is the only prior for optimal linear estimation in L1 loss.
problem Optimal linear estimation of a random variable from noisy observations under L1 fidelity criterion. method Analyzes the conditions under which the conditional median is a linear estimator and identifies the Gaussian distribution as the only prior that induces linearity.
result Gaussian is the only prior distribution that induces linearity in the conditional median for L1 loss. This dissertation advances scalable Gaussian processes using iterative methods and pathwise conditioning.
problem The classical Gaussian process formulation is not scalable for large datasets and modern hardware.
method Combining iterative methods and pathwise conditioning to improve scalability.
result Significantly reduced memory requirements and facilitated application to larger datasets.
Extends Gaussian process regression for non-Gaussian data.
problem Inadequate modeling of uncertainty and over-smoothing in non-Gaussian datasets.
method Time-changed Gaussian processes with Lévy processes.
result Improved modeling of heavy-tailed non-Gaussian behaviors.
TSFlow uses Gaussian processes to match priors for better time series forecasting.
problem Difficulties in aligning generative models' priors with time series data.
method Conditional flow matching (CFM) with Gaussian processes, optimal transport, and data-dependent priors.
result TSFlow produces high-quality unconditional samples and competitive forecasting results.
Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various multivariate risk measures significantly. In this contribution we derive precise approxim…
We consider so-called regular invertible Gaussian Volterra processes and derive a formula for their prediction laws. Examples of such processes include the fractional Brownian motions and the mixed fractional Brownian motions. As an application, we consider conditional-mean hedging under transaction costs in Black-Scho…
We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. As an extension of Welling and Teh (2001), we define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals and derive an …
Sharp risk bounds for early-stopping in Gaussian linear regression are derived.
problem Minimizing in-sample mean squared error in high-dimensional Gaussian linear regression.
method Early-stopped mirror descent (ESMD) with local Gaussian width bounds.
result Sharp risk bounds extend to early-stopped mirror descent for least squares estimator (LSE).
We study learning problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of additional task variables. In varying-coefficient models with Gaussian process priors, a Gaussian process generates the functional relationship between the task variables and the parameters of this con…
Efficiently learns Gaussian tree models with near-optimal sample complexity.
problem Learning tree-structured Gaussian distributions efficiently.
method Conditional mutual information tester for Gaussian variables, near-optimal sample complexity.
result Near-optimal sample complexity for structure learning of Gaussian tree models.
We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks.
problem Understanding the behavior of convolutional neural networks in the infinite-channel limit.
method We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks under Gaussian prior and posterior distributions.
result We provide a large deviation principle for the sequence of conditional covariance matrices and the posterior distribution.
FlowSDR learns a low-dimensional projection preserving the response's conditional distribution.
problem Learning a low-dimensional projection that captures the response's conditional distribution.
method FlowSDR uses conditional log-likelihood maximization with monotone rational-quadratic spline flows to learn the projection and conditional density.
result FlowSDR outperforms existing SDR methods in various simulation settings and a face-age prediction task.
GP-ConvCNP improves NP models for time series data by adding Gaussian Process.
problem GP-ConvCNP addresses the lack of generalization and robustness in ConvCNP models for time series data.
method GP-ConvCNP incorporates a Gaussian Process to improve ConvCNP's performance and generalization.
result GP-ConvCNP models show improved generalization and robustness to distribution shifts and future extrapolation.
Study selective classification with halfspaces, achieving error bounds under Gaussian distributions.
problem Modeling relationships in subsets of data defined by selection rules.
method Sparse linear classifiers for subsets defined by halfspaces, focusing on Gaussian feature distributions.
result First PAC-learning algorithm for homogeneous halfspace selectors with error guarantee $\bigO*{\sqrt{\mathrm{opt}}}$.
Paper introduces robust Gaussian process regression without sacrificing computational efficiency.
problem Violation of independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise assumption in Gaussian process regression.
method Proves robust and conjugate Gaussian process regression (RCGP) at no additional cost using generalised Bayesian inference.
result RCGP enables exact conjugate closed form updates in all settings where standard GPs admit them.
Develops a nonparametric graphical model for conditional independence.
problem Evaluation of conditional independence without distributional assumptions.
method Nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction techniques applied to a nonparametric graphical model.
result Method outperforms existing methods in non-Gaussian settings and high-dimensional data.
One goal in Bayesian machine learning is to encode prior knowledge into prior distributions, to model data efficiently. We consider prior knowledge from systems of linear partial differential equations together with their boundary conditions. We construct multi-output Gaussian process priors with realizations in the so…
Extracts invariant features to predict Y without confounding by Z, using conditional independence and optimal transport.
problem Extracting invariant features to predict Y without confounding by Z, a response variable influenced by unknown confounders Z.
method Develops a methodology penalizing statistical dependence between feature and confounders conditioned on Y, using the Optimal Transport Barycenter Problem.
result The method extracts invariant features in the Gaussian case, equivalent to penalizing dependence between feature and conditional random variable Z_Y.
Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model complexity, representational capacity and overfitting. In this work, we propose …
Exact recovery method for community detection in Gaussian mixtures with dependent noise.
problem Community detection in Gaussian mixtures with dependent and heterogeneous noise.
method Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for constrained quadratic optimization problem, using Σ-whitened separation and local inequalities. result Sharp exact-recovery threshold and no-gap mechanism in the unknown-size setting.
Paper introduces a nonparametric functional graphical model for random functions.
problem Estimating probabilistic conditional independence in functional graphical models.
method Functional sufficient dimension reduction to relax Gaussian or copula Gaussian assumptions.
result Enhances estimation accuracy and retains probabilistic conditional independence.
A new model combines deep learning and Gaussian Processes with hyperdata learning.
problem Combining deep learning and Gaussian Processes for expressive and robust learning.
method Conditional Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) with hyperdata learning and approximate inference.
result Conditional DGP offers better expressiveness and robustness compared to existing methods.
Develops new oracle inequalities for Gaussian ranking estimators.
problem Lack of rigorous theoretical support for Gaussian ranking estimators.
method Novel oracle inequalities for regularized pairwise ranking.
result Derives fast learning rates under general dimension assumptions.
Generative models use kernel smoothing for conditioning on small example sets.
problem Improving generative models' performance with limited conditioning examples.
method Showed that cross-attention conditioning is equivalent to kernel smoothing, specifically a Nadaraya--Watson kernel smoother.
result The approach predicts and confirms three failure regimes for kernel-based conditioning.
Researchers disrupt Gaussian model inference to test adversarial attacks.
problem Disrupting conditional inference in multivariate Gaussian models under adversarial conditions.
method Considered white- and grey-box settings with complete and incomplete knowledge of the Gaussian distribution, respectively. Reduced to quadratic and stochastic quadratic programs. Derived structural properties for solution methods.
result Demonstrated the impact and efficacy of attacks in various applications, including real estate evaluation, interest rate estimation, and signals processing.
Gaussian Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm is one of the most important distributed algorithms in signal processing and statistical learning involving Markov networks. It is well known that the algorithm correctly computes marginal density functions from a high dimensional joint density function over a Markov network i…
We show that the two-stage adaptive Lasso procedure (Zou, 2006) is consistent for high-dimensional model selection in linear and Gaussian graphical models. Our conditions for consistency cover more general situations than those accomplished in previous work: we prove that restricted eigenvalue conditions (Bickel et al.…
A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.
New formula for portfolio risk management using conditional PDEs.
problem Optimal diversification and risk management of portfolios.
method Closed-form formula for conditional probability, Gaussian copulas, conditional risk-neutral PDE.
result Dynamic monitoring of portfolio volatilities and weights from PDEs.