arXiv research

New Riemannian geometry for Compound Gaussian distributions applied to efficient change detection.

Paper uses VAEs to detect radar targets in complex noise.

Researchers calculated EVaR for various distributions using Lambert function.

New MC-Tree method combines Monte Carlo and binomial tree for option pricing and CVA.

A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…

The paper develops generalization bounds for deep compound Gaussian neural networks.

Recursive training of generative models can lead to model collapse, and the recursion converges to a unique limiting distribution.

The paper develops a Gaussian process model for predicting chemical efficacy.

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation of the tail probability of a compound distribution in the form of a rapidly conve…

Normalized compound random measures are flexible nonparametric priors for related distributions. We consider building general nonparametric regression models using normalized compound random measure mixture models. Posterior inference is made using a novel pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler for normalized comp…

An efficient adaptive direct numerical integration (DNI) algorithm is developed for computing high quantiles and conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of compound distributions using characteristic functions. A key innovation of the numerical scheme is an effective tail integration approximation that reduces the truncation …

Paper extends stochastic dominance for compound binomial distributions.

Paper establishes sufficient condition for comparing linear combinations of infinite-mean risks.

Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.

Generates natural product-like compounds using GPT models.

High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross…

Virtual screening (VS) is widely used during computational drug discovery to reduce costs. Chemogenomics-based virtual screening (CGBVS) can be used to predict new compound-protein interactions (CPIs) from known CPI network data using several methods, including machine learning and data mining. Although CGBVS facilitat…

Shear stress distribution prediction in open channels is of utmost importance in hydraulic structural engineering as it directly affects the design of stable channels. In this study, at first, a series of experimental tests were conducted to assess the shear stress distribution in prismatic compound channels. The shear…

A new method reduces compounding errors in model-based reinforcement learning.

Study quantifies information borrowing in hierarchical Bayesian models.

Paper introduces a new model for cyber insurance pricing.

A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.

Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…

SVDD and Deep SVDD improve radar target detection in clutter.

We address structured covariance estimation in elliptical distributions by assuming that the covariance is a priori known to belong to a given convex set, e.g., the set of Toeplitz or banded matrices. We consider the General Method of Moments (GMM) optimization applied to robust Tyler's scatter M-estimator subject to t…

Study estimates Medallion's compounded return before fees at 31.8%.

Characterizes measures preserving compound mixed renewal process properties.

This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…

A new method calculates accurate SABR model option prices and deltas.

Here we present an application of two maxentropic procedures to determine the probability density distribution of compound sums of random variables, using only a finite number of empirically determined fractional moments. The two methods are the Standard method of Maximum Entropy (SME), and the method of Maximum Entrop…

Matrix H-theory models stock market fluctuations using hierarchical multivariate distributions.

In this paper, we introduce a new model for the risk process based on general compound Hawkes process (GCHP) for the arrival of claims. We call it risk model based on general compound Hawkes process (RMGCHP). The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and the Functional Central Limit Theorem (FCLT) are proved. We also study the ma…

Semi-supervised learning improves QSAR model predictions for novel compounds.

New insights into empirical Bayes and compound decision problems with improved regret bounds.

Compound Finance optimizes risk metrics for V3 protocol using Chainrisk simulations.

STMT predicts compounds in unknown areas with trend reflection.

In this paper, we propose the discrete time Compound Beta-Binomial Risk Model with by-claims, delayed by-claims and randomized dividends. We then analyze the Gerber-Shiu function for the cases where the dividend threshold $d=0$ and $d>0$ under the assumption that the constant discount rate $ν\in (0,1)$. More specifical…

ChemGrapher uses deep learning to automatically convert chemical compound images into accurate graphs.

Optimizes portfolios with utility theory, diversification, and leverage.

This study deals with the problem of pricing compound options when the underlying asset follows a mixed fractional Brownian motion with jumps. An analytic formula for compound options is derived under the risk neutral measure. Then, these results are applied to value extendible options. Moreover, some special cases of …

The study improves compound selection in in silico screening by focusing on model's ability to predict desirable outcomes.

A new method solves complex financial problems using deep learning.

With the rapid development of high-throughput technologies, parallel acquisition of large-scale drug-informatics data provides huge opportunities to improve pharmaceutical research and development. One significant application is the purpose prediction of small molecule compounds, aiming to specify therapeutic propertie…

The book examines statistical issues with fat-tailed distributions and proposes remedies.

Ethereum's Pectra upgrade introduces 0x02 compounding validators, offering higher stake and potential APR uplifts.

New MGCPP model for order flow in financial markets.

In this paper we study a class of insurance products where the policy holder has the option to insure $k$ of its annual Operational Risk losses in a horizon of $T$ years. This involves a choice of $k$ out of $T$ years in which to apply the insurance policy coverage by making claims against losses in the given year. The…

A novel Hawkes Process model captures order sizes in LOBs, improving fit quality and market impact studies.