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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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265177102 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Competence Regions

Dynamic Ensemble Selection (DES) techniques aim to select locally competent classifiers for the classification of each new test sample. Most DES techniques estimate the competence of classifiers using a given criterion over the region of competence of the test sample (its the nearest neighbors in the validation set). T…

2018-04-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Dynamic regressor selection (DRS) systems work by selecting the most competent regressors from an ensemble to estimate the target value of a given test pattern. This competence is usually quantified using the performance of the regressors in local regions of the feature space around the test pattern. However, choosing …

2019-04-09abs ↗pdf ↗

The study proposes a framework to accept OOD data based on competence scores.

problem Silent failures in Domain Generalization where models reject OOD data without proper justification.
method A learning to reject framework using proxy incompetence scores to predict trustworthiness.
result Increasing incompetence scores are predictive of reduced accuracy, but not always favorable for accuracy/rejection trade-off.

PaRCE estimates model confidence for CNNs across various uncertainties.

problem Limited holistic approach to estimating perception model confidence in CNNs.
method Probabilistic and reconstruction-based competency estimation.
result PaRCE best distinguishes between various types of samples and regions.

Dynamic ensemble selection systems work by estimating the level of competence of each classifier from a pool of classifiers. Only the most competent ones are selected to classify a given test sample. This is achieved by defining a criterion to measure the level of competence of a base classifier, such as, its accuracy …

2018-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Symmetry-electronic fingerprints reveal competing magnetic phases in two-dimensional materials.

problem Predicting magnetic ground states, moments, and anisotropy in two-dimensional magnets.
method Introduce the symmetry-electronic fingerprint (SEF), a physically interpretable representation that encodes crystallographic symmetry operations, Wyckoff-site geometry, and site-resolved electronic structure.
result SEF-trained models accurately classify magnetic ordering and regress moments alongside anisotropy energies.

Yield curve forecasting is an important problem in finance. In this work we explore the use of Gaussian Processes in conjunction with a dynamic modeling strategy, much like the Kalman Filter, to model the yield curve. Gaussian Processes have been successfully applied to model functional data in a variety of application…

2017-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a Bayesian model to predict business revenue and demand.

problem Estimating revenue and demand at business facilities.
method Variational Bayesian spatial interaction model (BSIM) with scalable inference.
result BSIM outperforms competing approaches in predicting pub revenue and demand.

In unsupervised outlier ensembles, the absence of ground truth makes the combination of base outlier detectors a challenging task. Specifically, existing parallel outlier ensembles lack a reliable way of selecting competent base detectors, affecting accuracy and stability, during model combination. In this paper, we pr…

2018-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Diffusion maps are a commonly used kernel-based method for manifold learning, which can reveal intrinsic structures in data and embed them in low dimensions. However, as with most kernel methods, its implementation requires a heavy computational load, reaching up to cubic complexity in the number of data points. This l…

2019-01-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Selecting and combining the outlier scores of different base detectors used within outlier ensembles can be quite challenging in the absence of ground truth. In this paper, an unsupervised outlier detector combination framework called DCSO is proposed, demonstrated and assessed for the dynamic selection of most compete…

2019-11-23abs ↗pdf ↗

FreB protocol uses AI to infer hidden parameters with valid confidence regions.

problem Generating biased or overconfident conclusions from AI-generated posterior distributions.
method Frequentist-Bayes (FreB) protocol reshapes AI-generated posterior distributions into valid confidence regions.
result FreB provides valid confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with expected probability.

We study the isoperimetric structure of asymptotically flat Riemannian 3-manifolds (M,g) that are C^0-asymptotic to Schwarzschild of mass m>0. Refining an argument due to H. Bray we obtain an effective volume comparison theorem in Schwarzschild. We use it to show that isoperimetric regions exist in (M, g) for all suffi…

2011-02-15abs ↗pdf ↗

SPLICE method disentangles shared and private latent variables from multi-view data.

problem Lack of methods to characterize nonlinear relationships and preserve geometric information in multi-view data.
method Neural network-based approach to infer disentangled, interpretable representations of shared and private latent variables.
result SPLICE yields more interpretable representations by preserving geometry and is more robust to incorrect latent dimensionality.

A new method matches similar regions in non-rigid shapes using spectra of differential operators.

problem Evaluating similarity of non-rigid shapes with partiality.
method Alignment of spectra of differential operators (SI-LBO and regular LBO) on a manifold with multiple metrics.
result Matching spectra outperforms competing methods on standard benchmarks.

Proposes dynamic model type recommendation for OLP technique.

problem Limited local competence of base-classifiers in uneven data distributions.
method Builds a multi-label meta-classifier to recommend model types based on local data complexity.
result Statistically similar performance to original OLP with fixed base-classifier model.

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically underspecified by the data, and can represent many different but high performing models…

2020-01-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Nested Cavity Classifier (NCC) is a classification rule that pursues partitioning the feature space, in parallel coordinates, into convex hulls to build decision regions. It is claimed in some literatures that this geometric-based classifier is superior to many others, particularly in higher dimensions. First, we give …

2019-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimating machine learning performance 'in the wild' is both an important and unsolved problem. In this paper, we seek to examine, understand, and predict the pointwise competence of classification models. Our contributions are twofold: First, we establish a statistically rigorous definition of competence that general…

2019-10-24abs ↗pdf ↗

PQMass assesses generative model quality using chi-squared tests.

problem Assessing the quality of generative models without density assumptions.
method Divides sample space into regions, applies chi-squared tests to p-values.
result Effectively assesses generative model quality, novelty, and diversity.

One of the main strengths of online algorithms is their ability to adapt to arbitrary data sequences. This is especially important in nonparametric settings, where performance is measured against rich classes of comparator functions that are able to fit complex environments. Although such hard comparators and complex e…

2020-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.

problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.

Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiabil…

2018-07-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Competency questions help experts select best clustering for energy data.

problem Ad hoc and subjective selection of clustering structures by domain experts.
method Formalize expert knowledge and requirements with competency questions.
result Competency questions improve reproducibility and evaluation of clustering applications.

This paper uses neural networks to accurately model competing risks in survival analysis.

problem Ignoring competing risks leads to biased survival estimation in machine learning models.
method The paper introduces constrained monotonic neural networks to model each competing survival distribution.
result The method ensures exact likelihood maximization with reduced computational cost.

Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.

problem Estimating HTEs from time-to-event data with competing events.
method Outcome modeling approach using plug-in estimators for potential outcomes.
result Competing events introduce new challenges for HTE estimation.

HACSurv models dependencies between competing risks and censoring for improved survival analysis.

problem Inaccurate survival predictions due to ignoring dependencies between competing risks and censoring.
method HACSurv uses hierarchical Archimedean copulas to model dependencies and cause-specific survival functions.
result HACSurv improves accuracy in survival predictions and captures complex risk interactions.

PyDTS analyzes survival data with discrete intervals and competing risks.

problem Discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks and optional penalization.
method Regularized estimation methods, model evaluation metrics, variable screening tools, and simulation module.
result Supports research and development in discrete-time survival analysis.

New approach generates optimal disturbances for controller verification.

problem Optimizing disturbances for controller verification with blackbox access.
method Online learning approach that adaptively generates disturbances based on controller inputs.
result New algorithm (MOTR) outperforms existing methods in simulated examples.

New method for discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks.

problem Discrete failure time data in survival analysis.
method Proposes a new estimation procedure for discrete-time survival analysis with competing events.
result Offers advantages over existing procedures and integrates regularized regression methods.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…

2019-09-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian model predicts evolving guest origin markets in tourism.

problem Forecasting the changing composition of guest origin markets in tourism.
method Developed and applied Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average (BDARMA) models to Airbnb booking data.
result BDARMA models achieve lower forecast error and competitive performance in guest origin market shares.

A new computationally efficient dependence measure, and an adaptive statistical test of independence, are proposed. The dependence measure is the difference between analytic embeddings of the joint distribution and the product of the marginals, evaluated at a finite set of locations (features). These features are chose…

2016-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.

problem Estimating treatment effectiveness for specific events in the presence of alternative event types.
method Meta-learners combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling and elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling.
result Compared meta-learners in multiple simulation settings, providing practical guidance for model selection.

Bayesian models predict evolving guest origin markets in tourism.

problem Forecasting the changing composition of guest origin markets in tourism.
method Developed and applied Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average (BDARMA) models to Airbnb booking data.
result BDARMA models outperform standard benchmarks in forecasting guest origin market shares.

CoPhy-PGNN tackles competing PG losses in neural networks for solving eigenvalue problems.

problem Solving eigenvalue problems with competing physics-guided loss functions.
method Learning generalizable solutions using a novel approach to handle competing PG losses.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach in quantum mechanics and electromagnetic propagation.