A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian active learning improves holistic educational assessments.
FID misaligns with human judgment due to reliance on ImageNet classes.
Bayesian framework evaluates predictors of subjective visual tasks.
The appeal of metric evaluation of research impact has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Although the public at large and administrative bodies are much interested in the idea, scientists and other researchers are much more cautious, insisting that metrics are but an auxiliary instrument to the qualitati…
In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature an…
When eliciting judgements from humans for an unknown quantity, one often has the choice of making direct-scoring (cardinal) or comparative (ordinal) measurements. In this paper we study the relative merits of either choice, providing empirical and theoretical guidelines for the selection of a measurement scheme. We pro…
This master's thesis discusses an important issue regarding how algorithmic decision making (ADM) is used in crime forecasting. In America forecasting tools are widely used by judiciary systems for making decisions about risk offenders based on criminal justice for risk offenders. By making use of such tools, the judic…
Complex statistical machine learning models are increasingly being used or considered for use in high-stakes decision-making pipelines in domains such as financial services, health care, criminal justice and human services. These models are often investigated as possible improvements over more classical tools such as r…
To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be resolved to use the approach in practice. In this paper we review the quantitative metho…
In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and gene…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…
We introduce POLAR - a framework that adds interpretability to pre-trained word embeddings via the adoption of semantic differentials. Semantic differentials are a psychometric construct for measuring the semantics of a word by analysing its position on a scale between two polar opposites (e.g., cold -- hot, soft -- ha…
One of the most popular approaches to understanding feature effects of modern black box machine learning models are partial dependence plots (PDP). These plots are easy to understand but only able to visualize low order dependencies. The paper is about the question 'How much can we see?': A framework is developed to qu…
In our work, we propose to represent HTM as a set of flat models, or layers, and a set of topical hierarchies, or edges. We suggest several quality measures for edges of hierarchical models, resembling those proposed for flat models. We conduct an assessment experimentation and show strong correlation between the propo…
Automates finding interactions in GLMs using neural networks.
Small Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) face many obstacles when they try to access credit market. These obstacles are increased if the SMEs are innovative. In this case, financial data are insufficient or even not reliable. Thus, when building a judgemental rating model, mainly based on qualitative criteria (soft inform…
Many applications in preference learning assume that decisions come from the maximization of a stable utility function. Yet a large experimental literature shows that individual choices and judgements can be affected by "irrelevant" aspects of the context in which they are made. An important class of such contexts is t…
Model visualizes and analyzes multilayer networks in a latent space.
Real-time speech enhancement model removes various noises and reverb.
Paper introduces adversarial lossy compression for video artifacts reduction.
The top word list, i.e., the top-M words with highest marginal probability in a given topic, is the standard topic representation in topic models. Most of recent automatical topic labeling algorithms and popular topic quality metrics are based on it. However, we find, empirically, words in this type of top word list ar…
Paper proposes HIDAM model to improve MSE default risk assessment using heterogeneous information networks.
Sepsis is the leading cause of death in non-coronary intensive care units. Moreover, a delay of antibiotic treatment of patients with severe sepsis by only few hours is associated with increased mortality. This insight makes accurate models for early prediction of sepsis a key task in machine learning for healthcare. P…
Bayesian optimisation framework for multi-objective decision-making from choice data.
Demon aligns diffusion models without retraining or backpropagation.
A new method automatically and dynamically sets learning rates in deep learning.
In this paper we study image captioning as a conditional GAN training, proposing both a context-aware LSTM captioner and co-attentive discriminator, which enforces semantic alignment between images and captions. We empirically focus on the viability of two training methods: Self-critical Sequence Training (SCST) and Gu…
Neural network model improves loss reserving accuracy and distribution flexibility.
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
Model learns metrics and preferences from user comparisons.
ForecastQA creates a new QA task for event forecasting from text data.
Framework evaluates post-hoc interpretability methods in time-series classification.
Decisions by Machine Learning (ML) models have become ubiquitous. Trusting these decisions requires understanding how algorithms take them. Hence interpretability methods for ML are an active focus of research. A central problem in this context is that both the quality of interpretability methods as well as trust in ML…
Paper tackles NNS under uncertainty with improved algorithms.
In many applications, an anomaly detection system presents the most anomalous data instance to a human analyst, who then must determine whether the instance is truly of interest (e.g. a threat in a security setting). Unfortunately, most anomaly detectors provide no explanation about why an instance was considered anoma…
The goal of query performance prediction (QPP) is to automatically estimate the effectiveness of a search result for any given query, without relevance judgements. Post-retrieval features have been shown to be more effective for this task while being more expensive to compute than pre-retrieval features. Combining mult…
The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindn…
The influence of human judgement is ubiquitous in datasets used across the analytics industry, yet humans are known to be sub-optimal decision makers prone to various biases. Analysing biased datasets then leads to biased outcomes of the analysis. Bias by protected characteristics (e.g. race) is of particular interest …
SSLfmm package improves semi-supervised learning by incorporating informative missingness in finite mixture models.
This study improves child welfare risk models using clustering methods.
New method defends against unseen threat models using perceptual adversarial training.
New algorithms reduce regret for convex bandits with small comparator norms.
The study optimizes bounds for comparing training and population loss.
Interactive DR framework for comparing datasets.
This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total a…
New algorithm reduces dynamic regret by adapting to comparator complexity.
In this report we describe a tool for comparing the performance of graphical causal structure learning algorithms implemented in the TETRAD freeware suite of causal analysis methods. Currently the tool is available as package in the TETRAD source code (written in Java). Simulations can be done varying the number of run…
Study compares market microstructure between two South African exchanges.