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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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295887116 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for China trade shock

This paper measures financial market resilience in China and identifies key uncertainties.

problem Measuring financial market resilience in China.
method Quantitative analysis of total financial market and sub-markets, Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach.
result Financial market resilience in China is event-driven and influenced by geopolitical risks, economic and trade policy uncertainty, and U.S.-China tensions.

Study shows how COVID-19 pandemic affected China's crude oil futures market efficiency.

problem Impact of COVID-19 on China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
method Multifractal analysis to compare market efficiency before and during the pandemic.
result Market efficiency of SC and its cross-correlations with other assets increased significantly after the outbreak of COVID-19.

HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors by lowering travel friction.

problem How HSR connectivity affects analyst earnings forecast errors in China.
method Firm-year panel data from 2008-2019; placebo test to rule out pre-existing trends.
result HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors after connectivity, not before.

This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.

problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.

This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.

problem The impact of the U.S.--China trade war on stock markets and financial contagion.
method Developed a novel jump-diffusion process to account for risk contagion, using high-frequency financial data and quasi-maximum likelihood estimator.
result Evidence of financial contagion from the U.S. to China, with changes in risk contagion channels.

The study uses Random Matrix Theory to identify structural changes in stock markets during shocks.

problem Understanding structural changes in stock markets during exogenous shocks.
method Random Matrix Theory and complexity gap analysis.
result The complexity gap collapses during shocks, indicating strong synchronization, and widens before shocks, signaling a rich structure.

Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.

problem Understanding how stock market volatility is influenced by economic demand changes.
method Divided industries into demand-oriented groups and analyzed spillover networks.
result Spillover effects from demand-oriented sectors to consumption-oriented sectors increased during the outbreak.

The study examines insurance demand under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.

problem Optimal insurance and investment strategies under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
method Rough volatility model and Hawkes process with power kernel, Functional Ito formula extension.
result Individuals demand more catastrophe insurance when path-dependent effects are considered.

Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.

problem Understanding order dynamics during extreme macroeconomic events.
method First-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model.
result Active participation by different traders during high volatility days, influencing market outcomes.

Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks bec…

2019-01-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Study reveals holiday effect on China's time-honored brands, especially alcoholic beverages.

problem Understanding holiday impact on China's time-honored brands.
method Event study using listed companies of China's time-honored brands from 2012-2021.
result Time-honored brand stocks show significant post-holiday effect during Chinese New Year, alcoholic beverages more sensitive.

The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.

problem Unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states in international trade among G7 countries.
method Analysis based on a model of international trade with supply and demand structures.
result Found relative equilibrium price vector is very degenerate, indicating unequal exchange.

Hierarchical AI multi-agent framework optimizes equity portfolios in China's A-share market.

problem Optimizing equity portfolios in China's A-share market using AI and multi-agent systems.
method A hierarchical multi-agent design integrating macro, firm-level, and reinforcement learning approaches.
result Consistently outperforms benchmarks and state-of-the-art systems on risk-adjusted returns and drawdown control.

China uses two Renminbi markets to hedge cross-border risks, leading to a price discrepancy.

problem China's two Renminbi markets (onshore and offshore) create a price discrepancy for currency forwards.
method Joint equilibrium model for spot and forward trading with transaction costs and segmented supply.
result The model explains the observed forward price discrepancy in terms of offshore liquidity stress.

This study shows how trade policy uncertainty affects stock-T bill correlations.

problem The impact of trade policy uncertainty on stock-T bill relationships.
method Extended Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) framework incorporating exogenous variables.
result Trade policy uncertainty significantly alters stock-T bill correlations, especially under specific political conditions.

Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.

problem Network models assume idiosyncratic risk, which can be unrealistic and lead to incorrect predictions.
method Proposed a production-based asset pricing model to account for substitutability between trade partners and correlation in supply and demand shocks.
result Assets positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks earn lower average risk premia.

Paper proposes MSSDDPG for better financial trading strategies.

problem Extracting accurate features from noisy, non-stationary financial time series.
method Multi-scale stroke deep deterministic policy gradient reinforcement learning model (MSSDDPG).
result MSSDDPG outperforms other strategies in China's CSI 300 and SSE Composite.

New framework analyzes pre-stock jump trading behaviors using multivariate time series analysis.

problem Understanding micro-trading behaviors before stock price jumps.
method Multivariate time series analysis considering temporal information.
result Identifies highly informative attributes for predicting price jumps.

Proposes a new model for simulating electricity prices and their correlation structure.

problem Simulating and understanding the complex dynamics of intraday electricity prices.
method Develops a multidimensional statistical model based on Poisson measures, estimating three key parameters.
result Demonstrates the model's effectiveness in battery valuation through dynamic programming.

Paper predicts high-frequency futures return directions using mean-uncertainty methods.

problem Data imbalance in short-term price movements of futures markets.
method Employed mean-uncertainty logistic regression and support vector machines under sublinear expectation framework.
result Mean-uncertainty approaches outperform conventional methods in classification metrics and average returns.

Sparse portfolio strategy from mutual funds' favorite stocks in China A share market.

problem Building a sparse portfolio from mutual funds' favorite stocks in a market with limited fund information.
method Analyzed mutual fund favorite stocks, used portfolio optimizer with constraints, and compared different methods.
result Sparse portfolios consistently outperform the benchmark index 930950.CSI.

Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.

problem Investor-driven information diffusion and its impact on excess comovement.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 4,533 Chinese and 4,517 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2022.
result Retail-driven information diffusion significantly drives excess comovement in China, while institution-driven diffusion is the primary driver in the U.S.

Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.

problem Standard models struggle to explain high comovement in business cycles across countries.
method Developed a demand-driven reduced-form model with strategic complementarities and international trade linkages.
result Combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks matches empirical comovement levels.

We examine how the structure of the world trade network has been shaped by globalization and recessions over the last 40 years. We show that by treating the world trade network as an evolving system, theory predicts the trade network is more sensitive to evolutionary shocks and recovers more slowly from them now than i…

2010-10-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a Structural Matrix Autoregressive model for joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume.

problem Joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume
method Structural Matrix Autoregressive model
result Volatility is primary driver of trading activity, with informational shocks incorporated through price variability.

We study the valuation and hedging problem of European options in a market subject to liquidity shocks. Working within a Markovian regime-switching setting, we model illiquidity as the inability to trade. To isolate the impact of such liquidity constraints, we focus on the case where the market is completely static in …

2012-05-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Study examines volatility-based strategy for Chinese ETF options, improving returns in volatile markets.

problem Lack of effective trading strategies in volatile Chinese equity markets.
method Volatility forecasting using GARCH models to dynamically adjust positions and exposures.
result Dynamic adjustment of positions and exposures enhances returns in volatile markets.