arXiv research

Paper detects hierarchical changes in latent variable models from data streams.

New method combines domain changes and sparse mixing for better latent variable learning.

Trading strategy uses Hoeffding's Inequality to predict financial regime change.

Improves change-point detection for high-dimensional time-series.

Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.

Tree-based regularization improves latent variable inference from related datasets.

Proposes a model to detect changes in multivariate time series data.

We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional changes, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show that under this assumption, the correct causal structural choices lead to faster ad…

This paper tackles causal representation learning from multiple distributions without hard interventions.

Researchers relax the CVF's smoothness requirement to create more flexible flow models.

Derives a new formula for optimal stopping problems with exploding derivatives.

Robustly detects and attributes climate change impacts under interventions.

Domain adaptation framework identifies latent variables for target distribution identifiability.

Bayesian Context Trees improve change-point detection in discrete data.

Graphical models are widely used in scienti fic and engineering research to represent conditional independence structures between random variables. In many controlled experiments, environmental changes or external stimuli can often alter the conditional dependence between the random variables, and potentially produce s…

New framework TDRL identifies latent causal variables from sequential data.

An essential problem in domain adaptation is to understand and make use of distribution changes across domains. For this purpose, we first propose a flexible Generative Domain Adaptation Network (G-DAN) with specific latent variables to capture changes in the generating process of features across domains. By explicitly…

Simplified calculus for semimartingales makes complex transformations easier.

Balancing graph summarization and change detection in streaming data.

We present two online causal structure learning algorithms which can track changes in a causal structure and process data in a dynamic real-time manner. Standard causal structure learning algorithms assume that causal structure does not change during the data collection process, but in real-world scenarios, it does oft…

We introduce a variable importance measure to quantify the impact of individual input variables to a black box function. Our measure is based on the Shapley value from cooperative game theory. Many measures of variable importance operate by changing some predictor values with others held fixed, potentially creating unl…

Study uses remotely sensed data to infer economic outcomes in experiments and quasi-experiments.

Bayesian optimization adapted for experiments with changing environmental conditions.

Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.

We present an alternating augmented Lagrangian method for convex optimization problems where the cost function is the sum of two terms, one that is separable in the variable blocks, and a second that is separable in the difference between consecutive variable blocks. Examples of such problems include Fused Lasso estima…

Estimates causal contributions of multiple causes on outcome changes.

Paper tackles dynamic behavior of variable topology mechanisms, presenting new transition conditions.

We study exponential Levy models with change-point which is a random variable, independent from initial Levy processes. On canonical space with initially enlarged filtration we describe all equivalent martingale measures for change-point model and we give the conditions for the existence of f-divergence minimal equival…

Recourse explanations can become invalid if collective actions change statistical data.

We generalize to the finite-state case the notion of the extreme effect variable $Y$ that accumulates all the effect of a variant variable $V$ observed in changes of another variable $X$. We conduct theoretical analysis and turn the problem of finding of an effect variable into a problem of a simultaneous decomposition…

Recent years have seen an increasing popularity of learning the sparse \emph{changes} in Markov Networks. Changes in the structure of Markov Networks reflect alternations of interactions between random variables under different regimes and provide insights into the underlying system. While each individual network struc…

The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have have power law decay, with density $f\left( x\right) \simeq f_{0}x^{-2}$, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator and denominator and their correlation. We also obtain the conditional probability…

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data…

When training a deep neural network for image classification, one can broadly distinguish between two types of latent features of images that will drive the classification. We can divide latent features into (i) "core" or "conditionally invariant" features $X^\text{core}$ whose distribution $X^\text{core}\vert Y$, cond…

Geometric QHD tests improve hub detection in correlated data.

Studying the impact of climate change on precipitation is constrained by finding a way to evaluate the evolution of precipitation variability over time. Classical approaches (feature-based) have shown their limitations for this issue due to the intermittent and irregular nature of precipitation. In this study, we prese…

We prove two-sided inequalities for the $L^p$-norm of a pushforward or pullback (with respect to an orientation-preserving diffeomorphism) on oriented volume and Riemannian manifolds. For a function or density on a volume manifold, these bounds depend only on the Jacobian determinant, which arises through the change of…

Change detection involves segmenting sequential data such that observations in the same segment share some desired properties. Multivariate change detection continues to be a challenging problem due to the variety of ways change points can be correlated across channels and the potentially poor signal-to-noise ratio on …

New framework predicts 5-year glucose values with missing data.

EVARS-GPR refines Gaussian Process Regression for seasonal data with sudden scale changes.

Identifying changes in model parameters is fundamental in machine learning and statistics. However, standard changepoint models are limited in expressiveness, often addressing unidimensional problems and assuming instantaneous changes. We introduce change surfaces as a multidimensional and highly expressive generalizat…

Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series of demand, supply and the price itself. However, there are many historic events …

New MIP approach for efficient change-point detection.

Researchers derive $q$-series for $SO(3)$ and $OSp(1|2)$ groups.

Although the growth of share-based payments with performance conditions (hereafter, SPPC) is prominent today, the theoretical price of SPPC has not been sufficiently studied. Reflecting such a situation, the current accounting standards for share-based payments issued in 2004 have had many problems. This paper develops…

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental evaluation of a randomized treatment. It then reviews evaluation methods based on se…

Bayesian model for multi-environment prediction with latent variable changes.

Develops analysis of Hölder continuous mappings on Heisenberg groups.