Investigates adjustments on Lie group crossed modules for gauge theory.
problem Existence and classification of adjustments on crossed modules of Lie groups.
method Differentiation/integration correspondence with infinitesimal adjustments; Lie algebra techniques.
result Infinitesimal adjustments exist if and only if the Kassel-Loday class lies in the image of the Chern-Weil homomorphism.
This paper develops an XVA (costs) analysis of centrally cleared trading, parallel to the one that has been developed in the last years for bilateral transactions. We introduce a dynamic framework that incorporates the sequence of cash-flows involved in the waterfall of resources of a clearing house. The total cost of …
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
problem Recurring patterns in volatility and liquidity of major cryptocurrencies.
method Data from two centralized exchanges and a decentralized exchange analyzed for patterns.
result Systematic patterns in volatility and liquidity across different timeframes.
Improved asset pricing using uncertainty-adjusted sorting in machine learning models.
problem Ignoring asset-specific estimation uncertainty in portfolio construction.
method Uncertainty-adjusted prediction bounds for sorting assets.
result Improves portfolio performance across various ML models and equity panels.
This paper compares various graph centrality methods for portfolio optimization.
problem Investment risk and return optimization using network theory.
method Graph centrality measures applied to portfolio optimization.
result Graph-theoretical methods yield higher risk-adjusted returns.
Paper develops framework for valuing and assessing credit risk in renewable PPAs.
problem Renewable PPAs expose both parties to counterparty credit risk.
method Modelled joint dynamics of electricity prices and renewable output, incorporated default probabilities.
result Provides transparent metric for PPA valuation under counterparty risk.
Improves trial efficiency by adjusting for historical prognostic scores.
problem Reducing statistical uncertainty in randomized trial estimates.
method Linear covariate adjustment using a prognostic model trained on historical data.
result Prognostic covariate adjustment achieves minimum variance and reduces mean-squared error.
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
Paper introduces OCRR Score for quantifying DeFi wallet credit risk.
problem Inability to assess credit risk in decentralized finance.
method Probabilistic measure based on historical and predictive on-chain activity.
result Dynamic adjustment of LTV and LT based on wallet risk profile.
GENI estimates node importance in KGs using GNNs.
problem Estimating node importance in KGs.
method GENI uses graph neural networks with a predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment.
result GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than state-of-the-art methods.
Random forests are a powerful method for non-parametric regression, but are limited in their ability to fit smooth signals, and can show poor predictive performance in the presence of strong, smooth effects. Taking the perspective of random forests as an adaptive kernel method, we pair the forest kernel with a local li…
Bayesian method estimates QTEs from observational data.
problem Estimating nuanced characteristics of counterfactual distributions.
method Bayesian semiparametric conditional distribution regression model with double balancing score.
result Proposed method provides more accurate QTE estimates than other methods.
Trading-R1 uses LLMs for financial trading, improving risk-adjusted returns.
problem Lack of interpretability and trust in AI for finance.
method Supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with a curriculum.
result Improved risk-adjusted returns and lower drawdowns compared to other models.
We address the problem of optimal Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market when interventions create feedback in the rate dynamics. In particular, we extend the work done on optimal impulse control by Cadenillas and Zapatero to incorporate temporary market reactions, of random duration and level, to Bank i…
We model bond's price curves corresponding to the sovereign uruguayan debt nominated in USD, as an alternative to the official bond prices publication released by the Central Bank of Uruguay (CBU). Four different gaussian models are fitted, based on historical data issued by the CBU, corresponding to some of the more f…
Calibrated PRMs improve inference efficiency for LLMs by dynamically adjusting compute budgets.
problem Poor calibration of PRMs leads to overestimation of success probabilities in partial reasoning steps.
method Quantile regression for calibration, instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework.
result Calibrated PRMs reduce inference costs while maintaining accuracy, especially on confident problems.
Exact second-order optimization for deep learning reduces computational cost and improves performance.
problem Inadequate use of second-order optimization methods in deep learning due to high computational cost and non-convexity.
method Developed an exact stochastic second-order Newton method that addresses the non-convexity issue and provides an expression for the stochastic Hessian.
result Exact second-order Newton direction formula and its application in deep learning datasets.
Study uses RL to optimize global equity portfolios, finds mixed results.
problem Optimizing dynamic portfolio weights across diverse global markets.
method Deep reinforcement learning with Soft Actor-Critic, incorporating various constraints and reward formulations.
result RL strategies achieve competitive performance, but no strategy consistently outperforms Buy and Hold.
The paper establishes CLTs for Markov chains and improves sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Establishing central limit theorems for ergodic averages of Markov chains.
method Drift conditions to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for CLTs, including lower bounds on convergence rates.
result Sharp conditions and convergence rates for various MCMC algorithms on heavy-tailed targets.
We introduce an innovative theoretical framework to model derivative transactions between defaultable entities based on the principle of arbitrage freedom. Our framework extends the traditional formulations based on Credit and Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA and DVA). Depending on how the default contingency is accoun…
Study optimal strategies for unwinding uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
problem Optimizing strategies for handling uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
method Modeling and solving the problem for a general class of in-flow processes, enabling an analytic solution.
result Optimal strategies depend on the autocorrelation of orders; only truth-telling flow is unwound myopically.
A method estimates causal parameters using a latent variable recovery.
problem Estimating causal parameters in contexts with multiple causes and unobserved confounding.
method Substitute adjustment via recovery of latent variables.
result Substitute adjustment estimates adjusted regression parameters under certain conditions.
Enhances Federated Learning by prioritizing device contributions and adjusting aggregation parameters.
problem Data privacy and security in distributed learning systems.
method Integrates multiple criteria for device contribution, uses prioritized aggregation, and adapts aggregation parameters online.
result The proposed approach outperforms standard Federated Learning methods in distributed learning tasks.
The paper analyzes variance reduction in stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics.
problem Reducing the variance of stochastic gradient estimators in Langevin dynamics.
method Central limit theorem and Poisson equation analysis for variance characterization.
result Anti-symmetric perturbations can reduce the variance of non-reversible Langevin dynamics.
This article provides a new representation for pricing adjustments in derivatives.
problem Derivative pricing adjustments and XVA (Expected Value of All Risk) models.
method An Ito SDE/parabolic PDE framework to encapsulate pricing adjustments.
result A new representation that encompasses various past adjustments.
The paper gives picture of enrichment to economic and financial system analysis using agent-based models as a form of advanced study for financial economic data post-statistical-data analysis and micro-simulation analysis. Theoretical exploration is carried out by using comparisons of some usual financial economy syste…
Paper introduces methods to adjust for missing data in causal inference.
problem Missing data and selection bias in causal inference.
method Developed necessary and sufficient conditions for valid adjustment sets.
result Introduced algorithms for finding minimum adjustment sets.
New graphical criteria for efficient covariate adjustment in non-parametric causal models.
problem Estimating population average treatment effects in observational studies using non-parametric causal graphical models.
method Developed new graphical criteria to determine efficient covariate adjustment sets for estimating treatment effects in non-parametric causal graphical models.
result Graphical criteria for efficient covariate adjustment can be applied in both linear and non-parametric causal models.
Tabular Q-learning outperforms advanced RL methods in monetary policy.
problem Dynamic setting of short-term interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment under uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
method Discrete-action Markov Decision Process with tabular Q-learning, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning, POMDP formulations.
result Standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return) compared to advanced RL methods and traditional policy rules.
ABS dynamically adjusts batch size based on policy stability, improving RL performance.
problem Diminishing returns with large batch sizes in RL due to non-stationary data.
method Adaptive Batch Scaling (ABS) with Behavioral Divergence metric.
result Larger batch sizes can improve RL performance, contrary to conventional wisdom.
Paper proposes embedding medical concepts from claims data for better risk adjustment models.
problem Lack of efficient representation of medical histories in risk adjustment models.
method Semantic embeddings of medical concepts from diagnostic, procedure, and prescription codes.
result Embedding-based models outperform commercial risk adjustment models in prospective risk score prediction.
We describe principal 3-bundles with adjusted connections using Lie algebras and groupoids.
problem Describing principal 3-bundles with adjusted connections.
method Derived explicit forms of adjustment data for 3-term L∞-algebras, integrated action Lie 3-algebroids to Lie 3-groupoids, and used differential cohomology. result Explicit description of principal 3-bundles with adjusted connections in terms of differential cohomology.
New theory connects non-abelian bundle gerbes to abelian ones.
problem Challenges in extending higher gauge theory beyond fake-flat sector.
method Developed a comprehensive theory of adjusted connections on non-abelian bundle gerbes.
result Established a new coordinate-independent formulation of lifting theorem.
Efficient adjustment sets found for cost-minimized causal estimations.
problem Estimating interventional means with minimum cost in causal graphical models.
method Defined cost-adjustment sets, constructed flow networks, and used maximum flow algorithms.
result Minimum cost optimal adjustment sets exist and can be found efficiently.
The paper provides PAC bounds for estimating causal effects using covariate adjustment with a valid set.
problem Estimating causal effects in high-dimensional settings without randomized experiments.
method PAC learning perspective, valid adjustment set, $\eps$-Markov blanket, constraint-based algorithms.
result PAC-bounds the estimation error of covariate adjustment by a term exponential in the size of the adjustment set.
Study optimal adjustment sets for causal policies with hidden variables.
problem Estimating dynamic treatment regimes with hidden variables.
method Developed criteria for graphs without hidden variables to compare estimators, extended to dynamic policies and hidden variables.
result Existence and computation of optimal minimal and globally optimal adjustment sets.
New method estimates treatment effects from high dimensional data.
problem Estimating treatment effects from high dimensional data with confounders.
method Generative modeling approach to backdoor adjustment in variational inference.
result Empirically, estimates interventional likelihood in high dimensional settings.
Improved ARMA-GARCH model for illiquid assets like cryptocurrencies.
problem Inadequate modeling of illiquid assets, especially cryptocurrencies, with traditional ARMA-GARCH models.
method Introducing liquidity-adjusted liquidity jump and diffusion metrics into ARMA-GARCH framework.
result The liquidity-adjusted model improves model fit and volatility sensitivity for cryptocurrencies.
Improved estimator reduces bias in statistical learning models.
problem Asymptotic bias in classic WDRO estimator.
method Adjusted Wasserstein distributionally robust estimator.
result Asymptotic unbiased estimator with smaller MSE.
Develops a method to approximate convexity adjustments for interest rate products.
problem Finding accurate convexity adjustments for interest rate products.
method Uses Malliavin calculus to develop an approximation method.
result Excellent numerical accuracy of the formulas for various interest rate products.
Proposes BA method for unbiased time series anomaly detection evaluation.
problem Anomalies in time series data are rare, making F1-score unreliable.
method Introduces Balanced Point Adjustment (BA) to address F1-score bias.
result BA provides fairer evaluation of time series anomaly detectors.
New risk measures adjust for tail risk inadequacies.
problem Tail risk inadequacy in classical risk measures.
method Developed a family of adjusted risk measures using target risk profiles.
result Analyzed and derived properties of adjusted risk measures.
The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.
problem Constructing or selecting probability measures for asset pricing.
method Historical review of various approaches including state price theory, martingale measures, and modern data-driven methods.
result Modern asset pricing involves constructing, transforming, or selecting probability measures to represent market prices.
Optimizes treatment duration to maximize quality-adjusted lifetime.
problem Balancing risks and benefits in clinical decision making.
method Proposes a weighted estimating equation to adjust for confounding and informative censoring, and a nonparametric estimator for mean counterfactual quality-adjusted lifetime.
result Shows the optimal time for percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy insertion in ALS patients.
Policy gradient methods ignore the potential value of adjusting environment variables: unobservable state features that are randomly determined by the environment in a physical setting, but are controllable in a simulator. This can lead to slow learning, or convergence to suboptimal policies, if the environment variabl…
Model predicts risk-adjusted returns across various financial markets.
problem Stationary models fail in predicting risk-adjusted returns due to market regime changes.
method Asset-independent regime-switching model using hidden Markov models.
result Accurately detects bull, bear, and high volatility periods for improved risk-adjusted returns.
LOAD discovers optimal adjustments locally for scalable causal inference.
problem Scalable causal inference for unknown causal graphs.
method Local Optimal Adjustments Discovery (LOAD) method.
result LOAD combines local and global approaches for efficient and accurate causal effect estimation.
Historical returns depend on historical closing prices and distributions. We describe how to compute adjusted closing prices from closing price/distribution data with an emphasis on spreadsheet implementation. Then the growth of a security from one date to another (1 + total return) is just the ratio of the correspondi…