Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.
problem Qualitative changes in causal relationships due to agent actions or environmental tipping points.
method Propose meta-causal states to group causal models based on equivalent qualitative behavior and parameterize specific mechanisms.
result Meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior and disentangled from unlabeled data.
Intelligent agents can cope with sensory-rich environments by learning task-agnostic state abstractions. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to approximate causal states, which are the coarsest partition of the joint history of actions and observations in partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). Our m…
Develops a new method to discover causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from observational data, especially for nonstationary time series.
method State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for conditionally stationary time series.
result SDCI can recover underlying causal dependencies with provable identifiability for state-dependent causal structures.
Method infers causal structure from system behaviors using RKHS and kernel ε ε ε -machines.
problem Discovering causal structure in systems with varying external and measurement noise.
method Combines causal states and RKHS for efficient representation and inference of causal structure.
result Robustly estimates causal structure in high-dimensional data with varying noise.
Unified kernel-based methods improve nonlinear causal discovery.
problem Identifying nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables.
method Unified Kernel Principal Component Regression (KPCR) and Gaussian Process score-based model with Smooth Information Criterion.
result Improved performance in time series nonlinear causal discovery.
Enhances RL in partially observable, noisy environments by uncovering causal states.
problem Making decisions based on incomplete and noisy observations in partially observable Markov decision processes (P 2 ^2 2 OMDPs). method Causal State Representation under Asynchronous Diffusion Model (CaDiff) framework, incorporating a novel asynchronous diffusion model (ADM) and a new bisimulation metric.
result Enhances returns by at least 14.18% compared to baselines on Roboschool tasks.
In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are particularly challenging in such nonstationary environments. In this paper, we study c…
New model learns causal world dynamics from state space models.
problem Lack of causal world models in neural world modeling.
method State Space Models (SSM) with attention mechanisms.
result SSM can learn causal models of environments with equivalent performance.
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
FOCUS improves offline RL by incorporating causal structure into world-models.
problem Learning effective policies from historical data without interaction.
method FOCUS proposes a practical algorithm that learns and leverages causal structure in offline RL.
result FOCUS outperforms plain model-based offline RL algorithms and other causal model-based RL algorithms.
Formula adjusts steady-state models for control confounding.
problem Learning steady-state models from operational data can be flawed due to control confounding.
method Derives a formula to adjust for control confounding using structural dynamical causal models.
result Estimates a causal steady-state model from closed-loop operational data.
New framework for AI to learn causal models through experience.
problem Lack of guidance for variable choice and interventions in causal models for AI.
method Defines actions as state space transformations, introduces causal variables, and identifies interventions.
result Clarifies the concept of interventions and makes causal representation learning clearer.
Framework for Granger causality in extreme events.
problem Identifying causal links from extreme events in time series.
method Causal tail coefficient and novel inference method.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in detecting Granger causality in extremes.
Aggregated variables can mask causal effects, turning unconfounded into confounded relations.
problem Aggregated variables can mask causal effects, leading to paradoxical confounding.
method Analysis of how aggregated variables can change the definition of causality and the feasibility of causal relations.
result Macro causal relations are defined by micro states, not just aggregated variables.
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.
Proposes method to learn state abstractions that generalize across environments.
problem Learning abstractions that generalize in block MDPs.
method Invariant causal prediction to learn model-irrelevant state abstractions (MISA).
result Proves high probability of outputting a state abstraction corresponding to causal feature set for return.
New formalism for decision making combines causal structures with MDPs, improving reinforcement learning performance.
problem Sequential decision making with causal knowledge to improve performance.
method Causal Markov Decision Processes (C-MDPs) and C-UCBVI algorithm exploiting causal structure.
result C-UCBVI achieves an i l d e O ( H S Z T ) ilde{O}(HS\sqrt{ZT}) i l d e O ( H S Z T ) regret bound, independent of actions. New method explains time series classification by assessing causal effects.
problem Understanding machine learning model decisions in time series classification.
method Model-agnostic causal attribution method using diffusion models.
result Causal attributions differ from associational ones, highlighting risks.
Causal Imitation Learning handles noisy measurements and distribution shifts.
problem Learning from noisy state observations and distributional shifts.
method Causal inference framework and adversarial RKHS learning.
result Improved robustness to distribution shifts compared to standard methods.
We present Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNNs) to learn functional causal models from observational data. CGNNs leverage conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries to discover bivariate and multivariate causal structures. CGNNs make no assumption regarding the lack of confounders, and learn a diffe…
Method recovers causal diffusion mechanisms from steady-state data without parametric assumptions.
problem Recovering causal diffusion mechanisms from steady-state gene expression data.
method Non-parametric kernel estimator for drift function, cross-validation for hyperparameter tuning.
result Full causal mechanism can be non-parametrically identified under weak non-explosion criterion.
This paper develops a federated approach to learn Granger causality in interdependent industrial clients.
problem Detecting and quantifying interdependencies in large, complex industrial data.
method Linear state space system framework, federated learning, differential privacy.
result Federated Granger causality learning addresses bandwidth and computational limitations.
Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.
problem Decentralized counterfactual reasoning in coupled industrial systems with private data.
method Federated causal representation learning in state-space systems.
result Proves convergence to centralized oracle and provides privacy guarantees.
New method identifies causal relationships in presence of hidden variables.
problem Identifying causal relationships when hidden variables exist.
method Established sufficient conditions and introduced a search algorithm.
result Proved soundness and completeness of the search algorithm.
The paper tackles matching a desired mean in causal systems through shift interventions.
problem Matching a desired mean in causal systems.
method Defining Markov equivalence classes, proposing active learning strategies, deriving lower bounds.
result Proposed active learning strategies require fewer interventions than previous approaches, especially for certain graph classes.
Enhanced framework selects features for unbiased causal inference.
problem Unbiased estimation of causal quantities in causal inference.
method Three-stage computational framework balancing treatment and non-treatment variables.
result Significantly reduces bias and variance in estimating causal quantities.
Language models trained on chess board states outperform those on moves, even with causal masking.
problem Applying causal masking to spatial data for training unimodal language models.
method Trained bidirectional and causal self-attention models on both spatial (board-based) and sequential (move-based) chess data.
result Models trained on spatial board states achieve stronger playing strength than those trained on sequential data, even with causal masking.
Federated Granger causality learns reliable interactions without sharing data.
problem Uncertainty in federated Granger causality estimates.
method Closed-form covariance recursions and spectral-radius-based convergence conditions.
result Uncertainty depends only on client data statistics and is independent of model parameters.
CoDA augments data with counterfactuals from local causal structures.
problem Improving sample efficiency in RL with complex dynamic processes.
method Local causal models (LCMs) and Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CoDA).
result CoDA significantly improves RL agent performance in locally factored tasks.
Proposes a new classifier for causal discovery in categorical data.
problem Causal discovery for categorical data.
method Classification with optimal label permutation (COLP) and simple learning algorithm.
result Favorable performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Causal Mosaic distinguishes cause from effect using nonlinear ICA and ensemble methods.
problem Distinguishing cause from effect in bivariate settings.
method Nonlinear ICA and ensemble framework (Causal Mosaic).
result Causal Mosaic shows state-of-the-art performance on artificial and real-world datasets.
New method recovers causal graphs from data scores in non-linear models.
problem Recovering causal graphs from data scores in non-linear models.
method Score matching algorithms and efficient Jacobian approximation.
result New method, SCORE, is competitive and faster than state-of-the-art methods.
Transformer-based method for causal discovery with prior knowledge integration.
problem Complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations in time series data.
method Multi-layer Transformer forecaster with gradient-based causal structure extraction and attention masking for prior knowledge integration.
result Significant improvement in causal discovery and causal lag estimation compared to state-of-the-art methods.
CIfly simplifies causal inference tasks with linear-time reachability primitives.
problem Efficiently solving complex causal inference problems.
method Formalizes reachability as a core operation, builds on state-space graphs, and uses rule tables.
result CIfly algorithms run in linear time, outperforming existing methods.
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.
Novel framework uses causality for financial forecasting.
problem Balancing invariance and prediction accuracy in financial time series.
method Causality-inspired models for forecasting asset returns.
result Efficacy in stable and accurate predictions, especially in turbulent markets.
Novel graphical models for time series with latent confounders improve causal inference.
problem Causal relationships and independencies in multivariate time series with unobserved confounders.
method Introduced a novel class of graphical models and characterized their properties.
result Novel graphs provide stronger causal inferences without additional assumptions.
Flow models recover causal transformations from observational data and a valid ordering.
problem Causal inference with only observational data and a valid causal ordering.
method Flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformations of exogenous variables.
result Flow models outperform previous methods and deliver consistent performance across various structural causal models.
This paper establishes the existence of observable footprints that reveal the "causal dispositions" of the object categories appearing in collections of images. We achieve this goal in two steps. First, we take a learning approach to observational causal discovery, and build a classifier that achieves state-of-the-art …
Pattern recognition in neuroimaging distinguishes between two types of models: encoding- and decoding models. This distinction is based on the insight that brain state features, that are found to be relevant in an experimental paradigm, carry a different meaning in encoding- than in decoding models. In this paper, we a…
Symplectic quandles can detect causality in spacetimes, improving on existing methods.
problem Detecting causality in (2+1)-dimensional spacetimes using existing methods.
method Combining Alexander-Conway polynomial with symplectic quandles.
result Symplectic quandles can distinguish between different types of links, suggesting their ability to detect causality.
Paper develops a method for causal representation learning from irregular tensors.
problem Complex patterns in high-dimensional, irregular tensor data.
method Novel causal formulation and CaRTeD framework integrating temporal causal representation learning with irregular tensor decomposition.
result Framework provides theoretical guarantees and outperforms state-of-the-art techniques.
Framework trains safe agents avoiding deceptive behavior.
problem Training safe agents from unsafe incentives.
method Formal settings, causal influence analysis, maximizing non-mediated effects.
result Agents avoid manipulating delicate state for rewards.
Counterexample disproves Borde-Sorkin conjecture on causal continuity of Morse spacetimes.
problem Disproving the Borde-Sorkin conjecture on causal continuity of Morse spacetimes.
method Provided a counterexample with low regularity causal structure and causal bubbling.
result Borde-Sorkin conjecture does not hold for Morse spacetimes with large anisotropy.
New method identifies causal structure in exchangeable data.
problem Existing causal discovery methods struggle with i.i.d. data.
method Exchangeable data provides richer conditional independence structure.
result Exchangeable data allows for unique causal structure identification.
We study the performance of Local Causal Discovery (LCD), a simple and efficient constraint-based method for causal discovery, in predicting causal effects in large-scale gene expression data. We construct practical estimators specific to the high-dimensional regime. Inspired by the ICP algorithm, we use an optional pr…
Dagma-DCE improves causal discovery with interpretable measures and open-source code.
problem Arbitrary proxy measures of causal strength in non-parametric causal discovery.
method Uses weighted adjacency matrices based on an interpretable measure of causal strength.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in simulated datasets.
ISAHP discovers instance-level causal structures in event sequences.
problem Discovering fine-grained causal relationships in asynchronous, interdependent event sequences.
method ISAHP, a novel deep learning framework using self-attention mechanism.
result ISAHP meets Granger causality requirements and discovers complex causal structures.