Book introduces ML and AI for causal inference.
problem Uncertainty in causal relationships.
method Structural equation models, DAGs, SCMs, and Double/Debiased Machine Learning.
result Improved inference in causal models using predictive tools.
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “Causal Machine Learning”
This paper explores causal analysis in machine learning for better interpretability.
problem The lack of causality in traditional interpretable machine learning models.
method An overview of causal approaches for interpretable machine learning.
result Causal analysis improves the interpretability of machine learning models.
New benchmark tests machine learning's ability to learn causal overhypotheses.
problem Machine learning's difficulty in understanding causal overhypotheses.
method Adapted blicket detector environment for machine learning agents to test causal overhypotheses.
result Many state-of-the-art methods struggle with causal overhypotheses in the new benchmark.
Synthetic experiments are crucial for assessing causal machine learning methods.
problem Current empirical evaluations of causal machine learning methods are insufficient and unreliable.
method Propose principles for conducting rigorous empirical analyses with synthetic data.
result Rigorous synthetic experiments are essential for building trust in causal machine learning methods.
CausalML simplifies causal inference methods in Python.
problem Combining causal inference and machine learning.
method Collection of causal inference methods in Python.
result Makes causal inference methods accessible in Python.
Proposes Causal Loss to improve machine learning models' causal inference.
problem Machine learning algorithms often fail to capture causal relationships when data is inconsistent.
method Introduces Causal Loss, a model-agnostic loss function that enhances interventional capabilities.
result Causal Loss improves non-causal associative models to have interventional capabilities.
CDPs visualize causal dependencies in AI models.
problem Understanding how AI models depend on data inputs causally.
method Developed Causal Dependence Plots (CDPs) to visualize causal dependencies.
result CDPs show causal changes in predictors and outcomes.
Integrating causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models for decision support.
problem Providing causal insights and decision support through machine learning models.
method Proposing an approach that integrates causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models.
result The proposed approach achieves competitive performance in prediction and what-if analysis while offering transparency on the system structure, causal relationships among variables, and functional forms connecting them.
ddml aids causal inference in econometrics with machine learning.
problem Estimation of causal effects with endogenous variables and unknown functional forms.
method Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) in Stata.
result Monte Carlo evidence supports using DDML with stacking for causal inference.
Research aims to bridge statistical learning to causal models in AI.
problem Challenges in machine learning and AI related to causality.
method Transition from statistical learning to causal models.
result Progress in AI may require advances in causal modeling.
This thesis tackles causality in machine learning, improving OOD generalization and robustness.
problem Machine learning struggles with OOD generalization and robustness due to lack of causality modeling.
method Exploits the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM) to ensure conditional distribution invariance under distribution shifts.
result Demonstrates how incorporating causality can enhance machine learning's OOD generalization, interpretability, and robustness.
Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.
problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.
Responds to critiques on tests for causal parameter confidence intervals.
problem Testing nominal confidence interval coverage for causal parameters estimated by machine learning.
method Rejoinder to critiques on nearly assumption-free tests.
result Clarifies and supports the original research's approach.
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
problem Misrepresentation of market trough drivers by simpler models.
method Flexible DML average partial effect causal machine learning framework.
result Volatility of options-implied risk appetite and market liquidity are key drivers.
Develops a machine learning pipeline for learning causal structure in time-series data.
problem Current ML algorithms fail to learn causal structure in time-series data due to lack of temporal order consideration.
method Integrates machine learning with chaos theory using ChaosFEX feature extractor to learn generalized causal structure.
result Successfully learns generalized causal structure in time-series data.
This study uses causal Shapley values to analyze how socioeconomic factors cause the spread of COVID-19.
problem Understanding how socioeconomic factors cause the spread of COVID-19.
method The study employs an explanatory framework from cooperative game theory augmented with do calculus, specifically causal Shapley values, to analyze the causal connections.
result The causal Shapley values reveal distinct advantages of non-linear machine learning models over linear models in multivariate analysis.
New measures for causal entropy and information gain studied.
problem Quantifying causal relationships in machine learning.
method Formal study of causal entropy and information gain.
result Established fundamental properties and relationships.
Study assesses hyperparameter tuning for causal inference with DML.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for causal inference with DML.
method Empirical simulation study using DML approach.
result Hyperparameter tuning crucial for causal estimation with DML.
Proposes a method to identify causal relationships using background knowledge.
problem Identifying causal relationships in the presence of background knowledge.
method Learning local structure using all types of causal background knowledge (direct, non-ancestral, ancestral). Criteria for identifying causal relationships based on local structure.
result Effective and efficient method for local structure learning and causal relationship identification.
Double machine learning improves causal effect estimation by relaxing assumptions.
problem Estimating causal effects with observational data.
method Double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework.
result DML improves adjustment for nonlinear confounding relationships.
Introducing CausalBench: A Flexible Benchmark Framework for Causal Analysis and Machine Learningcs.LG
CausalBench aims to advance causal learning research with a transparent platform.
problem Lack of unified benchmark datasets, algorithms, metrics, and evaluation interfaces for causal learning.
method Introduces CausalBench, a flexible benchmark framework for causal analysis and machine learning.
result Promotes scientific collaboration, reproducibility, and awareness in causal learning research.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
Paper develops a new inequality for non-causal machine learning.
problem Current concentration inequalities cannot be applied to non-causal machine learning.
method Develops a framework for non-causal random fields and proves a Hoeffding-type inequality.
result Obtains a Hoeffding-type concentration inequality for non-causal random fields.
Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines avoid spurious associations.
problem Learning algorithms for rule-based models are vulnerable to spurious associations.
method Building on invariant causal prediction, propose Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines for conjunctions/disjunctions of binary-valued rules.
result The method can identify causal parents of a variable of interest in polynomial time.
Matched Machine Learning combines machine learning and matching for causal inference.
problem Non-interpretable methods for causal inference.
method Combines machine learning and matching for interpretable causal inference.
result Performs as well as black-box machine learning methods and better than existing matching methods.
DoubleML is a Python library for causal inference using machine learning.
problem Estimating causal parameters in complex models with machine learning.
method Double machine learning framework for valid statistical inference.
result High flexibility and easy extension for various model specifications.
Theory and methods to mitigate omitted variable bias in causal machine learning.
problem Mitigating omitted variable bias in causal machine learning models.
method Developed a general theory and flexible statistical inference methods for bounding and testing the magnitude of omitted variable bias.
result Simple plausibility judgments can bound the magnitude of omitted variable bias in complex, nonlinear models.
DoubleML implements machine learning for causal inference in R.
problem Estimating causal effects in regression models with high-dimensional data.
method Double machine learning framework with Neyman orthogonality and sample splitting.
result Valid inference on causal parameters using machine learning methods.
Graphical causal inference as pioneered by Judea Pearl arose from research on artificial intelligence (AI), and for a long time had little connection to the field of machine learning. This article discusses where links have been and should be established, introducing key concepts along the way. It argues that the hard …
Estimating the average causal effect of intervention in continuous variables using machine learningstat.ML
Study develops method for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.
problem Lack of methods for estimating causal effects in continuous variables.
method Develops a method independent of data generating models for continuous variable interventions.
result Preserves identifiability of data and applies to any generating models.
Causal Explainability of Machine Learning in Heart Failure Prediction from Electronic Health Recordsstat.ML
The paper investigates causal relationships in heart failure prediction using machine learning.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between clinical variables and heart failure.
method Proposes a new computational framework for causal structure discovery (CSD) of mixed-type clinical variables for binary disease outcomes.
result Feature importance from nonlinear classifiers strongly correlates with causal strength of variables, but not differentiating cause and effect.
Deep Causal Graphs model complex causal relationships using neural networks.
problem Limited applicability of parametric causal models to real-life datasets with non-linear relationships.
method Deep Causal Graphs, an abstract specification for neural networks to model causal distributions.
result Demonstrates expressive power in modelling complex interactions and provides true causal counterfactuals.
Surveying machine learning methods for economic forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of economic forecasts using machine learning.
method Nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series cross-validation, classification with economic losses.
result Recent advances in machine learning methods enhance economic forecasting accuracy.
Management Decisions in Manufacturing using Causal Machine Learning -- To Rework, or not to Rework?cs.LG
The paper uses causal machine learning to optimize rework decisions in manufacturing.
problem Optimizing rework policies in manufacturing systems to balance yield improvement and rework costs.
method Proposes a causal model using double/debiased machine learning (DML) techniques to estimate conditional treatment effects and derive rework policies.
result Achieved a yield improvement of 2-3% during the color-conversion process of white LEDs.
New estimators improve causal inference in machine learning studies.
problem Improving causal inference in machine learning models.
method Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators for average causal effect.
result Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators outperform other methods in simulations.
From Dependence to Causationstat.ML
Machine learning is the science of discovering statistical dependencies in data, and the use of those dependencies to perform predictions. During the last decade, machine learning has made spectacular progress, surpassing human performance in complex tasks such as object recognition, car driving, and computer gaming. H…
The paper discusses selecting predictive models for causal inference, highlighting the challenges and proposing a solution.
problem Selecting the best predictive models for causal inference from a variety of machine learning models.
method The paper proposes using , flexible estimators, and splitting data to compute risks for model selection.
result The proposed method controls both outcome errors for treated and non-treated individuals, addressing the issue of model selection for causal inference.
AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.
problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.
Study uses causal machine learning to assess coupon campaign impact on retailer sales.
problem Assessing the causal effect of a coupon campaign on retailer sales.
method Causal machine learning algorithms, subgroup analysis, optimal policy learning.
result Only two coupon categories (drugstore and other food) have a significant positive impact on sales.
Survey on causal interpretability models for machine learning.
problem Understanding and explaining the decisions made by machine learning models.
method Comprehensive survey on causal interpretable models.
result Evaluation metrics for interpretability are discussed.
Study evaluates and compares traditional and causal machine learning methods for estimating direct price effects of environmental amenities.
problem Estimating direct price effects of environmental amenities in housing markets.
method Empirical Monte Carlo simulation to compare traditional regression and causal machine learning approaches.
result Causal Machine Learning (CML) methods, particularly causal forest DID, perform comparably to generalized DID in most scenarios.
This paper uses machine learning to estimate how different types of crashes affect highway traffic.
problem Estimating the heterogeneous causal effects of crashes on highway traffic.
method Neyman-Rubin Causal Model, Conditional Shapley Value Index, Structural Causal Model, Doubly Robust Learning.
result Different types of crashes have varying impacts on traffic, with rear-end crashes causing the most severe congestion.
Causal predictors don't generalize better across domains than non-causal predictors.
problem How well do causal predictors generalize across different domains?
method 16 prediction tasks on tabular datasets, selecting causal features.
result Causal predictors do not outperform non-causal predictors in domain generalization.
FairTrade uses variational inference to create fair predictions in causal models.
problem Creating fair predictions in machine learning models with causal reasoning.
method FairTrade uses variational inference to account for unobserved confounders and integrates fairness constraints on causal paths.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of FairTrade in creating fair predictions in both simulated and real-world datasets.
This work optimizes maintenance schedules using causal machine learning.
problem Challenges in machine maintenance, especially imperfect maintenance policies.
method Causal inference from observational data to learn maintenance effects.
result Novel approach accurately predicts maintenance effects and optimizes schedules.
This paper introduces an innovative Bayesian machine learning algorithm to draw interpretable inference on heterogeneous causal effects in the presence of imperfect compliance (e.g., under an irregular assignment mechanism). We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the proposed Bayesian Causal Forest with Instrum…
fairadapt uses causal inference to mitigate algorithmic bias in data pre-processing.
problem Mitigating algorithmic bias in machine learning predictions.
method Causal graphical model and observed data to address counterfactual questions.
result The method can help eliminate discrimination and justify fair decisions.
The relationship between statistical dependency and causality lies at the heart of all statistical approaches to causal inference. Recent results in the ChaLearn cause-effect pair challenge have shown that causal directionality can be inferred with good accuracy also in Markov indistinguishable configurations thanks to…