New method infers causal effects without knowing control variables.
problem Inference errors when control variables are unknown.
method Proposes a method for inferring causal effects when control variables are unknown.
result Proves method yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals for average causal effects.
Unified causal model improves controllable text generation without bias.
problem Controllable text generation tasks, biased by prior models.
method Unified causal framework for attribute-conditional generation and text attribute transfer.
result Significant superiority over previous conditional models for improved control and reduced bias.
The paper proposes a method to identify causal structure in complex dynamical systems.
problem Spurious correlations in data-driven models limit the performance of control systems.
method The method leverages controllability concepts to compute input trajectories and uses causal inference techniques.
result The method reliably identifies the true causal structure of control systems from real-world data.
CausalMix generates synthetic data with causal controls for mixed-type tables.
problem Synthetic data for causal inference with mixed-type and multimodal tabular data.
method CausalMix combines Gaussian latent priors with data-type-specific decoders for control over overlap, confounding, and treatment effect heterogeneity.
result CausalMix achieves state-of-the-art distributional metrics and stable causal control.
Formula adjusts steady-state models for control confounding.
problem Learning steady-state models from operational data can be flawed due to control confounding.
method Derives a formula to adjust for control confounding using structural dynamical causal models.
result Estimates a causal steady-state model from closed-loop operational data.
Combining causality, control, and reinforcement learning for system control.
problem Learning to control dynamical systems using causal, control, and reinforcement learning approaches.
method Combining causal identification, control strategies, and reinforcement learning to control dynamical systems.
result Combining different learning paradigms for effective system control.
New diffusion models improve counterfactual image generation with semantic control.
problem Challenges in preserving identity, maintaining quality, and ensuring causal model faithfulness in counterfactual image generation.
method Integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through Pearlian causality, introducing spatial, semantic, and dynamic abduction.
result Demonstrates high-level semantic identity preservation and principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.
New method identifies how platforms can influence consumer behavior.
problem Estimating the causal effect of digital platforms on consumption.
method General causal inference problem, focusing on observational designs, and explicitly modeling consumption dynamics.
result Exogenous variation in consumption and responsive algorithmic control actions are sufficient for identifying steerability of consumption.
New approach uses negative controls to estimate causal parameters without completeness conditions.
problem Estimating causal parameters when not all confounders are observed.
method Identification strategy based on minimax learning formulations for general function classes.
result Avoids completeness conditions and uniqueness assumptions on bridge functions.
CPCMs integrate causal drivers for robust portfolio optimization.
problem Degradation of classical portfolio models under structural breaks and lack of arbitrage consistency in machine learning.
method Causal PDE-Control Models integrating structural causal drivers, nonlinear filtering, and forward-backward PDE control.
result CPCM solvers achieve higher Sharpe ratios and lower turnover than benchmarks.
Framework for estimating treatment effects using external control data.
problem Improving efficiency in estimating average treatment effects (ATE) in hybrid trials.
method Developed a formal causal inference framework based on exchangeability assumptions and graphical criteria. Proposed estimators and efficient doubly-robust methods.
result Established finite-sample performance and demonstrated application to spinal muscular atrophy trial.
A new method for estimating causal effects using synthetic controls.
problem Evaluating causal effects of policy changes in settings with observational data.
method Distributional Synthetic Controls method.
result Allows construction of entire synthetic distributions for the treated unit.
Unified framework for generating data by modeling causal and correlational dependencies.
problem Modeling both causal and correlational dependencies among latent factors.
method Causal-Correlation Variational Autoencoder (C2VAE) framework.
result Improves generation quality, disentanglement, and intervention fidelity.
CIB compresses variables causally, preserving key causal interactions.
problem Constructing causal variable abstractions in complex systems.
method Causal Information Bottleneck (CIB) method, extending IB to include causal structures.
result CIB produces causally interpretable abstractions that accurately capture causal relations.
Algorithm reduces variance in causal effect estimation from multiple datasets.
problem Unidentifiable average treatment effect in observational data due to selection bias.
method Constructs control variates using datasets where ATE is not identifiable to reduce variance.
result Significant reduction in variance of ATE estimate using control variates.
New causal measures improve feature selection in AI models.
problem Lack of causal interpretability in AI models.
method Introduces causal entropy and causal information gain to assess feature control.
result Demonstrates superiority of causal information gain in feature selection.
High-dimensional models can outperform simpler ones in causal inference.
problem Estimating average treatment effects with many covariates.
method High-dimensional linear regression and synthetic control with many control units.
result Adding more control units can improve imputation performance even when pre-treatment fit is perfect.
TabCF simplifies causal inference for distributional effects.
problem Estimating causal effects with unmeasured confounding.
method Control function regression using tabular foundation models.
result Accurate, fast, and transparent causal estimation of distributional quantities.
The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described precisely. Causal models with design describe the study design and the missing data mech…
The paper introduces negative controls to evaluate causal discovery algorithms, improving their reliability.
problem Lack of a general guideline for evaluating causal discovery algorithms.
method Derive exact distributional results under random guessing for evaluation metrics and propose a pipeline for using negative controls.
result Evaluation metrics can achieve very favorable values under random guessing, highlighting the need for negative control results.
NICE learns a representation to avoid bad controls in causal inference.
problem Avoiding bad controls in causal inference from observational data.
method Uses invariant risk minimization (IRM) to learn a representation of covariates that avoids bad controls.
result NICE outperforms adjusting for all covariates in cases with unknown collider variables and bad controls.
Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.
problem Decentralized counterfactual reasoning in coupled industrial systems with private data.
method Federated causal representation learning in state-space systems.
result Proves convergence to centralized oracle and provides privacy guarantees.
Causal inference deals with identifying which random variables "cause" or control other random variables. Recent advances on the topic of causal inference based on tools from statistical estimation and machine learning have resulted in practical algorithms for causal inference. Causal inference has the potential to hav…
Causal effect estimation relies on separating the variation in the outcome into parts due to the treatment and due to the confounders. To achieve this separation, practitioners often use external sources of randomness that only influence the treatment called instrumental variables (IVs). We study variables constructed …
New method uses differential equations for better counterfactual analysis.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes for policy analysis.
method Continuous-time approach to synthetic controls using controlled differential equations.
result Improves counterfactual estimation for irregularly aligned multivariate time series.
Framework calculates positional influence in causal residual Transformers.
problem Understanding positional influence in causal residual Transformers.
method Adjoint-sensitivity framework for positional influence in causal residual Transformers.
result Exact evolution of adjoint-energy influence density and decomposition into residual transmission, nonlocal Volterra, and local channels.
New method learns causal relationships in latent variables.
problem Disentangling causally related latent variables under supervision.
method Structural causal model (SCM) as prior for bidirectional generative model.
result Proposes DEAR method enabling causal controllable generation and disentanglement.
Extended LPCMCI learns causal models from interventional data to minimize prediction error.
problem Optimizing prediction of target variables using causal models.
method Combining observational and interventional causal discovery methods.
result Extended LPCMCI allows 60.9% optimal prediction of target variables compared to 53.6% with original LPCMCI.
Survey on combining causal models with deep generative models for improved explainability and fairness.
problem Deep generative models lack explainability, induce spurious correlations, and poor out-of-distribution extrapolation.
method Structural causal models (SCMs) combined with deep generative models to address shortcomings.
result Causal generative models offer robustness, fairness, and interpretability.
A method to detect spillover effects and select valid donors for synthetic control models.
problem Identifying valid donors in synthetic control models when spillover effects are possible.
method Theoretical grounding and practical method using pre-intervention data to identify donor values and debias causal estimates.
result A Theorem that identifies assumptions for identifying donor values and debias causal estimates.
We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.
problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.
Paper introduces active and passive causal inference techniques.
problem Causal inference in machine learning.
method Categorizes causal inference techniques into active and passive approaches.
result Describes and discusses various causal inference methods.
New method identifies causal relationships using proxy variables in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships due to unmeasured confounding.
method Develops a general nonparametric approach using a single negative control outcome (NCO) and negative control exposure (NCE).
result Establishes a new identification result and proposes a kernel-based testing procedure.
TSC improves causal effect estimation in panel data.
problem Estimating causal effects in panel data with a single treated unit.
method Targeted synthetic control method that refines initial weights through a one-dimensional targeted update.
result TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.
Novel approach integrates Multivariate Square-root Lasso into Synthetic Control for high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in practical implementation and computational efficiency of Synthetic Control method for high-dimensional disaggregated data.
method Integrates Multivariate Square-root Lasso into Synthetic Control framework.
result Demonstrates superior computational efficiency without compromising estimation accuracy.
The study uncovers latent capabilities of language models via causal representation learning.
problem Rigorous causal evaluations of language model capabilities are challenging due to confounding effects and computational costs.
method Proposes a causal representation learning framework to identify latent capability factors as causally interrelated after controlling for a common confounder (base model).
result Identifies a three-node linear causal structure explaining performance variations across 1500 models and six benchmarks.
The paper introduces a new algorithm for fair decision-making in outcome control tasks.
problem Fair and equitable automated decision-making in outcome control tasks.
method Causal analysis and optimization to ensure fairness in decision-making.
result Developed an algorithm for maximizing Y while ensuring causal fairness. CoDA augments data with counterfactuals from local causal structures.
problem Improving sample efficiency in RL with complex dynamic processes.
method Local causal models (LCMs) and Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CoDA).
result CoDA significantly improves RL agent performance in locally factored tasks.
Method identifies causal interactions between time series using extreme eigenvalue variability.
problem Detecting causal interactions between time series.
method Largest eigenvalue of lagged correlation matrices, measuring causal interactions through variability.
result The method outperforms traditional Granger causality tests in detecting structural changes.
The paper discusses selecting predictive models for causal inference, highlighting the challenges and proposing a solution.
problem Selecting the best predictive models for causal inference from a variety of machine learning models.
method The paper proposes using Rext−risk, flexible estimators, and splitting data to compute risks for model selection. result The proposed method controls both outcome errors for treated and non-treated individuals, addressing the issue of model selection for causal inference.
Paper introduces a new convergence for Lorentzian spaces using causal diamonds.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on a new geometric convergence.
method Uses causal diamonds to define a new convergence for Lorentzian spaces.
result Proves a pre-compactness theorem for Lorentzian spaces.
Gradient-based methods can be biased by distributional asymmetries in bivariate categorical data.
problem Gradient-based causal discovery methods can be biased by distributional asymmetries in bivariate categorical data.
method Identified and examined two distributional biases: Marginal Distribution Asymmetry and Marginal Distribution Shift Asymmetry. Employed two simple models to demonstrate and control these biases.
result Gradient-based methods can be biased by distributional asymmetries, and these biases can be controlled.
One of the central difficulties of settling the L2-bounded curvature conjecture for the Einstein -Vacuum equations is to be able to control the causal structure of spacetimes with such limited regularity. In this paper we show how to circumvent this difficulty by showing that the geometry of null hypersurfaces of En…
Financial event studies often misestimate causal effects due to misspecified factor models.
problem Misspecification of factor models in financial event studies leads to inconsistent estimates of causal effects.
method Proposed synthetic control methods to construct replicating portfolios from control securities.
result Synthetic control methods provide more accurate estimates of causal effects in event studies.
GPT learns a causal world model from token predictions, validated in game sequences.
problem Does GPT implicitly learn a causal world model from token predictions?
method Derived a causal interpretation of GPT's attention mechanism and proposed zero-shot causal structure learning.
result GPT can generate legal next moves with high confidence for sequences with encoded causal structures, but fails for illegal moves.
The paper examines challenges in achieving fair predictions using causal counterfactuals.
problem Achieving fair predictions using causal counterfactuals in fairness settings.
method Analyzes the limitations of causal models in fairness settings and the challenges of selecting counterfactuals.
result Causal models that capture counterfactuals are outside the class commonly considered in fairness literature.
The paper uses machine learning to find causal rules from business process logs.
problem Discovering causal relationships in business process logs.
method Action rule mining followed by causal machine learning (uplift trees).
result Identifies treatments with high causal effect on outcomes.
Estimates treatment effects in time series data with always-missing controls.
problem Lack of control group in time series data, especially during specific events.
method Recover control group in event period, account for confounders and temporal dependencies.
result Robust estimation of control group's potential outcome and accurate predicted holiday effect.