Causal Component Analysis aims to recover latent variables with causal relationships.
problem Recover latent variables with causal relationships from observed mixtures.
method Introduces a likelihood-based approach using normalizing flows to estimate unmixing function and causal mechanisms.
result Demonstrates effectiveness through synthetic experiments in CauCA and ICA settings.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
Identifies causal effects in LiNGAM models with latent variables.
problem Identifying causal effects in LiNGAM models with latent confounders.
method Complete graphical characterization and efficient algorithms for certification. RICA adaptation for estimation.
result Efficient algorithms and RICA adaptation for estimating causal effects.
Causal discovery witnessed significant progress over the past decades. In particular, many recent causal discovery methods make use of independent, non-Gaussian noise to achieve identifiability of the causal models. Existence of hidden direct common causes, or confounders, generally makes causal discovery more difficul…
New method recovers causal networks from short time-series data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from short time-series data in complex systems.
method Large-scale Nonlinear Granger Causality (lsNGC) approach.
result Captures meaningful interactions from limited observational data.
We address the problem of distinguishing cause from effect in bivariate setting. Based on recent developments in nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA), we train nonparametrically general nonlinear causal models that allow non-additive noise. Further, we build an ensemble framework, namely Causal Mosaic, which …
New approach tackles nonidentifiability in nonlinear blind source separation.
problem Nonidentifiability in nonlinear blind source separation.
method Independent mechanism analysis, incorporating causal assumptions.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence shows improved identifiability.
New method estimates causal structure from sparse data.
problem Inferring causal structure from sparse observational data.
method Log-likelihood of sparsely mixed ICA with penalty terms.
result Proposed method outperforms existing methods.
New analysis identifies key factors in wildfire-generated thunderstorms.
problem Understanding the causes of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) storms.
method Invariant Causal Prediction, conditional independence test, greedy-ICP search algorithm.
result Identified seven causal predictors for pyroCb formation.
Measurement error in the observed values of the variables can greatly change the output of various causal discovery methods. This problem has received much attention in multiple fields, but it is not clear to what extent the causal model for the measurement-error-free variables can be identified in the presence of meas…
Developed a flexible Bayesian g-formula for causal survival analysis with time-dependent confounding.
problem Estimating causal survival curves in longitudinal observational studies with time-varying treatments and confounding.
method Incorporated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the g-formula to model time-evolving generative components and mitigate bias due to model misspecification.
result Demonstrated improved empirical performance and practical utility of the proposed method through simulations and real-world data analysis.
Study uses Wasserstein distance to identify causal orders and unmix sources.
problem Identifying causal relationships and separating sources in non-Gaussian data.
method Wasserstein distance for non-Gaussianity, linear ICA, causal inference.
result Exact identification of ICA unmixing matrix and causal orders.
A new RL framework evaluates dynamic mediation effects over time.
problem Dynamic mediation effects in sequentially assigned treatments.
method Reinforcement Learning framework for decomposition and estimation of causal effects.
result Superior performance demonstrated through numerical studies and real data analysis.
New method identifies causal graphs with limited data and noise.
problem Identifying causal graphs from observational data is generally impossible.
method Using additional data from two environments with different noise statistics, and assuming Gaussian noise.
result The entire causal graph can be uniquely identified with a constant number of environments.
Discover causal structure from mixtures of DAGs using latent variable algorithms.
problem Discover causal structure from distributions arising from mixtures of DAGs.
method Causal structure discovery algorithms such as FCI for latent variables.
result Recover a 'union' of the component DAGs and identify varying conditional distributions.
We consider the problem of inferring causal relationships between two or more passively observed variables. While the problem of such causal discovery has been extensively studied especially in the bivariate setting, the majority of current methods assume a linear causal relationship, and the few methods which consider…
Boosting method for causal SEMs from observational data.
problem Learning causal order among variables from observational data.
method Boosting-based approach with early stopping and component-wise gradient descent.
result Boosting with early stopping consistently favors the true causal ordering.
In recent years, several methods have been proposed for the discovery of causal structure from non-experimental data (Spirtes et al. 2000; Pearl 2000). Such methods make various assumptions on the data generating process to facilitate its identification from purely observational data. Continuing this line of research, …
Develops a Bayesian method for causal inference with partly censored time-to-event data.
problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders and measurement errors in partly censored time-to-event data.
method Semiparametric Bayesian instrumental variable analysis using a two-stage Dirichlet process mixture model.
result The proposed method outperforms competing methods in simulations and real-world data analysis.
New method identifies latent variables with causal dependencies from observed data.
problem Identify latent variables with causal relationships from observed data.
method Linear causal disentanglement via higher-order cumulants, with perfect and soft interventions.
result Recovery of parameters via coupled tensor decomposition and polynomial equations.
An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of such models is a well-studied problem. However, existing methods have significant …
CaT-GNN improves credit card fraud detection by integrating causal reasoning into GNNs.
problem Credit card fraud detection overlooks causal structure of transactions.
method CaT-GNN combines causal invariant learning and temporal graph neural networks.
result CaT-GNN outperforms existing methods on various datasets.
Proposes CoDEAL for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal panel data models with covariate effects.
method Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning (CoDEAL) integrating neural networks and autoencoders.
result Establishes theoretical guarantees and demonstrates compelling performance in simulations and real data.
This paper tackles causal interactions in mixtures of DAGs using interventions.
problem Learning causal interactions among variables governed by a mixture of causal systems.
method Establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for intervention size, designs an adaptive algorithm.
result Identifies true edges in a mixture of DAGs using optimal or near-optimal interventions.
Online social networks offer a new way to investigate financial markets' dynamics by enabling the large-scale analysis of investors' collective behavior. We provide empirical evidence that suggests social media and stock markets have a nonlinear causal relationship. We take advantage of an extensive data set composed o…
Develops a method for causal inference with noisy confounders.
problem Noisy measurements of confounders in treatment effects models.
method Local principal subspace approximation combining K-nearest neighbors matching and PCA.
result Estimators of treatment effects and counterfactual distributions are constructed.
New method uses information theory to uncover causal relationships in complex systems.
problem Discovering causal relationships in multivariate systems, especially in Bayesian networks and hypergraphs.
method Partial Information Decomposition (PID) to explicitly model higher-order interactions.
result PID components reveal direct causal neighbors and collider relationships in Bayesian networks and multi-tail hyperedges in causal hypergraphs.
We introduce coroICA, confounding-robust independent component analysis, a novel ICA algorithm which decomposes linearly mixed multivariate observations into independent components that are corrupted (and rendered dependent) by hidden group-wise stationary confounding. It extends the ordinary ICA model in a theoretical…
This work closes the gap between theory and practice for nICA identifiability.
problem Identifying latent components in nonlinearly mixed data.
method Finite-sample analysis of GCL-based nICA, combining GCL properties, statistical generalization, and numerical differentiation.
result Establishes a trade-off between function learner complexity and expressiveness.
New algorithm identifies causal effects in latent confounding models.
problem Identifying causal effects in linear non-Gaussian models with latent confounding.
method Recursive algorithm using rank conditions on higher-order cumulants.
result Algorithm achieves comparable performance to overcomplete ICA without knowing the number of latent variables.
A widely applied approach to causal inference from a non-experimental time series X, often referred to as "(linear) Granger causal analysis", is to regress present on past and interpret the regression matrix B^ causally. However, if there is an unmeasured time series Z that influences X, then this approach…
New method simplifies causal inference with tiered background knowledge.
problem Large equivalence classes of DAGs limit causal information.
method Integrates tiered background knowledge to create 'tiered MPDAGs' with simplified structure.
result Tiered MPDAGs are chain graphs with chordal components, simplifying causal effect estimation.
Aggregation challenges causal interpretation of IV estimators.
problem Aggregation of fine-grained components into an aggregate treatment variable.
method Characterization of conditions for identifying aggregate causal effects.
result Standard IV estimators cannot identify aggregate causal effects due to ambiguous dependencies.
This paper tackles sequential distribution shifts in representation learning.
problem Learning meaningful representations in a sequence of distribution shifts.
method Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (ICA) framework for continual causal representation learning.
result The method achieves performance comparable to joint training on multiple offline distributions and shows no benefit from the incoming new distribution on all latent variables.
Defines tangent spaces on causal sets using partial derivatives and metrics.
problem Defining geometric structures on causal sets.
method Using partial derivatives and metrics to define tangent spaces, connection, curvature, parallel transport, and geodesics.
result Approaches expected values for a flat spacetime as density increases.
Dynamical systems are widely used in science and engineering to model systems consisting of several interacting components. Often, they can be given a causal interpretation in the sense that they not only model the evolution of the states of the system's components over time, but also describe how their evolution is af…
A hybrid method for causal discovery in latent confounders.
problem Estimating linear non-Gaussian models with latent confounders.
method Hybrid approach combining FCI and ICA.
result Hybrid method uniquely identifies causal relations under mild assumptions.
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
problem Inefficiencies and statistical significance issues in asymmetric causality tests.
method Improved asymmetric causality tests via partial cumulative sums for positive and negative components, explicitly testing differences between causal parameters.
result Efficiently tested hypotheses on asymmetric causal interaction between financial markets.
The paper finds that bear markets cause recessions and bull markets cause expansions, with bull markets having a stronger causal effect.
problem Understanding the asymmetric causal relationships between market conditions and economic cycles.
method Asymmetric causality tests using partial sums of positive and negative market components, with bootstrap simulations and leverage adjustments.
result Bear markets cause recessions and bull markets cause expansions, with bull markets having a stronger causal effect.
New framework detects directional influence in multivariate time series.
problem Detecting directional influence in multivariate time series.
method Order-constrained spectral non-invariance.
result Unique diagnostic functional for directional influence.
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
New method detects causal relationships from noisy measurements.
problem Discover causal relationships from noisy, imperfect measurements.
method Transformed Independent Noise (TIN) condition and ordered group decomposition.
result Identifies causal graph structure without over-complete ICA.
New method reduces gender bias in language models without harming performance.
problem Bias in language models learned from biased data.
method Causal analysis to identify problematic model components, followed by linear projection of weight matrices.
result DAMA significantly decreases bias in language models while maintaining performance.
New method recovers latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
problem Detecting latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
method Proxy Confounder Factorization (PCF) framework using ICA-PCF and GD-PCF.
result ICA-PCF recovers confounders with high correlation and low error in synthetic and real-world data.
CausalCOMRL improves RL task representations by integrating causal relationships, enhancing generalizability.
problem Spurious correlations in context-based offline meta-reinforcement learning.
method CausalCOMRL integrates causal representation learning to uncover and incorporate causal relationships among task components.
result CausalCOMRL achieves better performance on meta-reinforcement learning benchmarks.
Developed causal chambers for AI validation, providing real-world data.
problem Limited real-world datasets for AI method validation.
method Created computer-controlled physical systems (causal chambers) to generate datasets.
result Demonstrated applications in various AI fields, validated causal models.
Study identifies components of unknown interventions in a mixture.
problem Identify components of a mixture of unknown interventions on a causal Bayesian Network.
method Construct example showing components not identifiable. Prove identifiability under mild conditions. Develop efficient algorithm for recovery. Analyze performance in simulation.
result Components of a mixture of unknown interventions can be uniquely identified under certain conditions.
A neural network approach uncovers Granger causality without explicit variable selection.
problem Capturing complex associations in multivariate time series data.
method A deep learning model with proper regularization to learn the true Granger Causality structure.
result A neural network can learn the true Granger Causality structure from data without explicit variable selection.