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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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3807601,1401,520 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Causal Additive Models

Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…

2019-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes methods to discover causal models with unobserved variables.

problem Discovering causal relationships in data with unobserved variables.
method Two methods leveraging prior knowledge for causal discovery in CAM-UV models.
result Accuracy of causal discovery improves with more prior knowledge.

New pruning method for sparse additive models speeds up causal structure learning.

problem Efficiently prune spurious edges from fully-connected DAG induced by estimated topological order.
method Sparse additive models combined with randomized tree embedding and group-wise sparse regression.
result Significantly faster than existing pruning methods while maintaining comparable accuracy.

A model learns causal representations from high-dimensional data.

problem Challenges in learning causal representations from high-dimensional data.
method Formulated a latent variable decoder model, Decoder BCD, for Bayesian causal discovery.
result Shows that using known intervention targets as labels helps in unsupervised Bayesian inference over structure and parameters.

We analyze a family of methods for statistical causal inference from sample under the so-called Additive Noise Model. While most work on the subject has concentrated on establishing the soundness of the Additive Noise Model, the statistical consistency of the resulting inference methods has received little attention. W…

2013-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Extends causal additive models to include higher-order interactions.

problem Inferring causal insights from data with higher-order mechanisms.
method Introduces directed acyclic hypergraphs to represent higher-order interactions in causal structure learning.
result Learning more complex hypergraphs can lead to better empirical results.

Detects model misspecifications in causal models using observational data.

problem Identifying predictor variables with causal effects in misspecified models.
method Develops a general framework based on observational data distribution and proposes an algorithm for finite sample data.
result Identifies predictor variables for causal effects even in misspecified models.

Study evaluates how noise affects ANMs' ability to identify causal directions.

problem Challenges in identifying causal relationships in bivariate cases with noise.
method Empirical study using Regression with Subsequent Independence Test (RESIT) on various ANM models.
result ANMs can fail to identify true causal directions for certain noise levels.

LANCA uses ANM to learn latent causal factors without supervision.

problem Learning latent causal factors without supervision.
method LANCA employs a deterministic Wasserstein Auto-Encoder coupled with a differentiable ANM Layer.
result LANCA outperforms baselines on physics and photorealistic environments.

Method estimates bivariate causal models using normalising flows and variational Gaussian process regression.

problem Lack of explainability in AI models, especially in causal mechanisms.
method Combination of normalising flows for density estimation and variational Gaussian process regression for post-nonlinear models.
result Method better explains cause-effect pairs than simple additive noise models.

Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data. Methods based on additive-noise (AN) models have been proposed to further discrimi…

2019-05-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates joint causal effects using single-variable interventions on nonlinear models.

problem Estimating joint causal effects from single-variable interventions.
method Identifiability result and practical estimator for decomposing causal effects.
result Joint effects can be inferred without joint interventional data for nonlinear additive models.

This study examines how noise levels affect causal discovery methods.

problem Impact of noise levels on causal discovery methods.
method Empirical study using Regression with Subsequent Independence Test and Identification using Conditional Variances on ANMs with varying noise levels.
result Causal discovery methods can fail for certain noise levels.

Causal autoregressive flows enable accurate causal inference and prediction.

problem Causal discovery and interventional predictions in machine learning.
method Autoregressive normalizing flows with fixed variable orderings.
result Causal models derived from autoregressive flows are identifiable and allow for accurate interventional and counterfactual predictions.

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data assuming that the causal structure is known. To make the problem more challengin…

2014-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.

problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.

We use the score function for causal discovery, tackling challenges with hidden variables.

problem Causal discovery from observational data with hidden variables.
method Fine-tuning identifiability results, establishing conditions for inferring causal relations from the score, proposing a flexible algorithm.
result Empirical validation of the proposed algorithm for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models.

This work restricts hidden cardinality in causal models to infer causal relations.

problem Causal relations between variables with a common unobserved cause cannot be directly inferred.
method Derive inequality constraints from d-separation in causal models with known cardinalities of unobserved variables.
result Inference of causal relations is possible with additional assumptions about cardinalities.

Identifies shifts in causal mechanisms between related datasets using ANMs.

problem Estimating the full causal structure from data is challenging; focus on identifying shifts in causal mechanisms.
method Assumes nonlinear additive noise models, uses Jacobian of score function for mixture distribution to identify shifts.
result Shows applicability of the approach on synthetic and real-world data.

Novel algorithm detects causal macrovariables from high-dimensional data.

problem Leveraging high-dimensional observational datasets for coarse-grained causal models.
method Inspired by information bottlenecks, novel algorithm detects macrovariables and investigates causal relationships through additive noise models.
result Algorithm robustly detects and infers causal relationships in both synthetic and real climate datasets.

We study the problem of using causal models to improve the rate at which good interventions can be learned online in a stochastic environment. Our formalism combines multi-arm bandits and causal inference to model a novel type of bandit feedback that is not exploited by existing approaches. We propose a new algorithm t…

2016-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Study clarifies variance of stratification estimators for causal effects.

problem Estimating average causal effects with discrete covariates.
method Combines insights from potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models.
result Derives expressions for the variance of stratification estimators.

Paper tackles confounded ANMs, estimating ACEs with minimal interventions.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Interventional distributions and randomized algorithm to reduce the number of required interventions.
result Poly-logarithmic number of interventions sufficient to infer causal effects in confounded ANMs.

A new method for identifying causal directions in complex systems.

problem Identifying causal relationships in nonlinear systems with limited data.
method Sequential edge orientation approach using pairwise additive noise model.
result The method can recover true causal DAGs under nonlinear additive noise models.

A new sorting method using R2R^2 values improves causal discovery from noisy data.

problem Improving causal discovery from noisy observational data.
method Introducing R2R^2-sortability and an algorithm, R2R^2-SortnRegress, to find causal order.
result Sorting variables by increasing R2R^2 yields a close-to-causal order.

Novel graphical models for time series with latent confounders improve causal inference.

problem Causal relationships and independencies in multivariate time series with unobserved confounders.
method Introduced a novel class of graphical models and characterized their properties.
result Novel graphs provide stronger causal inferences without additional assumptions.

Develops a sparsity-inducing Bayesian Causal Forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using observational data with varying degrees of sparsity.
method Introduces a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests with additional priors to adjust covariate weights.
result Improves adaptability to sparse data generating processes and uncovering moderating factors driving heterogeneity.

The discovery of causal relationships is a fundamental problem in science and medicine. In recent years, many elegant approaches to discovering causal relationships between two variables from observational data have been proposed. However, most of these deal only with purely directed causal relationships and cannot det…

2019-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

New findings show invariance alone isn't enough to identify latent causal variables.

problem Lack of theoretical insights for identifying latent causal variables when variables are latent.
method Assessed the connection between invariance and causal representation learning using impossibility results.
result Invariance alone is insufficient to identify latent causal variables.

TS-K-means improves financial data clustering with dynamic time warping.

problem Inadequate handling of temporal dependencies in financial time series data.
method Integrates Dynamic Time Warping into Time Series K-means for financial data.
result TS-K-means outperforms traditional K-means in financial data analysis.

Study on forecasting methods and their causal implications.

problem Understanding the difference between statistical and causal risks in forecasting models.
method Introduce causal learning theory for forecasting, obtain uniform convergence bounds for VAR models.
result First theoretical guarantees for causal generalization in time-series forecasting.