A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of U.S. housing market integration. It then identifies statistical jumps in metrop…
This is a TeX'ed version of the author's 1971 thesis from the University of California at Berkeley under the supervision of J.~B.~Wagoner.
This is the Proceedings of NIPS 2017 Symposium on Interpretable Machine Learning, held in Long Beach, California, USA on December 7, 2017
This is the Proceedings of NIPS 2017 Workshop on Machine Learning for the Developing World, held in Long Beach, California, USA on December 8, 2017
Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of the…
Study shows GDP and CPI predict CCC funding, highlighting need for economic forecasting.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
Study compares geostatistical and machine learning models for PM2.5 prediction.
Transfer learning improves highway traffic forecasting using graph neural networks.
In May 2015, a conference entitled "Groups, Geometry, and 3-manifolds" was held at the University of California, Berkeley. The organizers asked participants to suggest problems and open questions, related in some way to the subject of the conference. These have been collected here, roughly divided by topic. The name (o…
Paper proposes efficient multivariate spatial Fay-Herriot models using variational autoencoders.
Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) play an important role in the decarbonization of the transportation sector. For a wider adoption of ZEVs, providing a reliable infrastructure is critical. We present a machine learning approach that uses unsupervised temporal clustering algorithm along with survey analysis to determine infr…
EQShapelets detect earthquakes with high accuracy and interpretability.
With pressure to increase graduation rates and reduce time to degree in higher education, it is important to identify at-risk students early. Automated early warning systems are therefore highly desirable. In this paper, we use unsupervised clustering techniques to predict the graduation status of declared majors in fi…
This manuscript served as lecture notes for a mini-course in the 2016 Southern California Geometric Analysis Seminar Winter School. The goal is to give a quick introduction to Kahler geometry by describing the recent resolution of Tian's three influential properness conjectures in joint work with T. Darvas. These resul…
Hybrid approach protects privacy while analyzing smart meter data.
In these notes, I will sketch a new approach to Khovanov homology of knots and links based on counting the solutions of certain elliptic partial differential equations in four and five dimensions. The equations are formulated on four and five-dimensional manifolds with boundary, with a rather subtle boundary condition …
Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underly…
Geographic diversification is fundamental to risk mitigation among investors and insurers of housing, mortgages, and mortgage-related derivatives. To characterize diversification potential, we provide estimates of integration, spatial correlation, and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. Results reveal a hi…
We propose a categorical data synthesizer with a quantifiable disclosure risk. Our algorithm, named Perturbed Gibbs Sampler, can handle high-dimensional categorical data that are often intractable to represent as contingency tables. The algorithm extends a multiple imputation strategy for fully synthetic data by utiliz…
Study shows houses appreciated more during pandemic due to speculation, not just price uncertainty.
A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own budget and preferences but not those of any other agent. The near-equilibrium pr…
TableQnA answers web queries about lists and superlatives from HTML tables.
This study combines two different learning paradigms, k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) rule, as memory-based learning paradigm and relevance vector machines (RVM), as statistical learning paradigm. This combination is performed in kernel space and is called k-relevance vector (k-RV). The purpose is to improve the performance …
For highly sensitive real-world predictive analytic applications such as healthcare and medicine, having good prediction accuracy alone is often not enough. These kinds of applications require a decision making process which uses uncertainty estimation as input whenever possible. Quality of uncertainty estimation is a …
Recidivism prediction scores are used across the USA to determine sentencing and supervision for hundreds of thousands of inmates. One such generator of recidivism prediction scores is Northpointe's Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) score, used in states like California and F…
A framework for the generation of bridge-specific fragility utilizing the capabilities of machine learning and stripe-based approach is presented in this paper. The proposed methodology using random forests helps to generate or update fragility curves for a new set of input parameters with less computational effort and…
Benchmark study evaluates 8 clustering methods on 99 UCR time series datasets.
Though suicide is a major public health problem in the US, machine learning methods are not commonly used to predict an individual's risk of attempting/committing suicide. In the present work, starting with an anonymized collection of electronic health records for 522,056 unique, California-resident adolescents, we dev…
MultiRocket boosts TSC speed and accuracy with pooling and transformations.
Paper proposes a fast method for approximate data deletion in generative models.
m-arcsinh improves SVM and MLP reliability and speed in scikit-learn.
Physics-consistent method improves seismic inversion accuracy.
In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication netw…
New method improves local precipitation predictions using video diffusion.
Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification
Paper proposes GSSNMF for legal document classification and topic modeling.
Time series classification models have been garnering significant importance in the research community. However, not much research has been done on generating adversarial samples for these models. These adversarial samples can become a security concern. In this paper, we propose utilizing an adversarial transformation …
Dynamic linear models improve travel time prediction for congested freeways.
This paper proposes a new method for an optimized mapping of temporal variables, describing a temporal stream data, into the recently proposed NeuCube spiking neural network architecture. This optimized mapping extends the use of the NeuCube, which was initially designed for spatiotemporal brain data, to work on arbitr…
In remote sensing, it is often challenging to acquire or collect a large dataset that is accurately labeled. This difficulty is usually due to several issues, including but not limited to the study site's spatial area and accessibility, errors in the global positioning system (GPS), and mixed pixels caused by an image'…
Sustainable management of groundwater resources under changing climatic conditions require an application of reliable and accurate predictions of groundwater levels. Mechanistic multi-scale, multi-physics simulation models are often too hard to use for this purpose, especially for groundwater managers who do not have a…
Natural disasters can have catastrophic impacts on the functionality of infrastructure systems and cause severe physical and socio-economic losses. Given budget constraints, it is crucial to optimize decisions regarding mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery practices for these systems. This requires accurate…
Relevance vector machine (RVM) can be seen as a probabilistic version of support vector machines which is able to produce sparse solutions by linearly weighting a small number of basis functions instead using all of them. Regardless of a few merits of RVM such as giving probabilistic predictions and relax of parameter …
Long Short Term Memory Fully Convolutional Neural Networks (LSTM-FCN) and Attention LSTM-FCN (ALSTM-FCN) have shown to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the task of classifying time series signals on the old University of California-Riverside (UCR) time series repository. However, there has been no study on why L…
Personalizes pre-trained models for nonparametric regression with limited data.
Statistical tests for fairness in admissions data reveal hidden patterns.