New method calibrates deep networks by preserving top-k predictions.
problem Calibrated confidence scores for multi-class deep networks to avoid rare mistakes.
method Intra order-preserving functions combined with neural network architecture.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in evaluation metrics.
Proposes an accuracy-preserving calibration method for DNNs.
problem Calibration of deep neural networks (DNNs) to measure prediction reliability.
method Uses Concrete distribution on the probability simplex to calibrate DNNs without accuracy loss.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in accuracy-preserving calibration tasks.
Study proves stability and uniqueness for a specific type of flow.
problem Volume-preserving mean curvature flow stability and uniqueness.
method New gradient flow calibrations for volume preservation, stability estimate in distributional solutions.
result Strong solutions are calibrated and stable under certain conditions.
Novel weak solutions for volume-preserving mean curvature flow established.
problem Existence and uniqueness of solutions to volume-preserving mean curvature flow.
method Introducing varifold solutions coupled with phase volumes and new calibrations.
result Uniqueness of classical solutions among varifold solutions.
Human-AI teaming suffers from calibration issues.
problem Human-AI teaming
method Assume calibrated models and humans
result Existing methods for combination do not preserve human's calibration.
New method calibrates neural network predictions for better reliability.
problem Improper probability estimates from deep networks leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a constrained optimization approach for a monotonic calibration map.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance across various datasets and models.
Improved upper bound for online calibrated forecasting of binary sequences.
problem Online calibrated forecasting of binary sequences.
method Introducing a variant of Qiao & Valiant's sign preservation game called sign preservation with reuse (SPR) and proving its equivalence to calibrated forecasting.
result Improved upper bound of O(T2/3−ε) for calibrated forecasting, improving the O(T2/3) bound of Foster & Vohra. MCNet improves uncertainty calibration in online advertising by modeling complex relations and balancing performance.
problem Lack of effective calibration for complex relations and context features in online advertising.
method Introduces MCNet with MCF, order-preserving, and field-balance regularizers.
result Superior performance in generating well-calibrated probability predictions on public and industrial datasets.
Weighted Monte Carlo prices exotic options calibrating the probabilities of previously generated paths by a regular Monte Carlo to fit a set of option premiums. When only vanilla call and put options and forward prices are considered, the Martingale condition might not be preserved. This paper shows that this is indeed…
Proposes new method for calibrating treatment effect predictors.
problem Calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects.
method Causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration.
result Achieves fast calibration rates under weak conditions.
Paper proves a new lower bound on calibration error for binary prediction.
problem Proving a strong lower bound on calibration error for binary prediction.
method Developed two new techniques: early stopping and sidestepping.
result Proves an Ω(T0.528) lower bound on calibration error. This paper improves multi-class calibration methods using mutual information maximization-based binning.
problem Calibration of deep neural network predictions, especially for small prior classes.
method I-Max concept for binning, shared class-wise calibration strategy.
result Improves multi-class ranking and calibration performance using a small calibration set.
New method calibrates noise for attack risk, improving ML model accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy of privacy-preserving ML models while maintaining privacy.
method Directly calibrates noise scale to a desired attack risk level, bypassing the standard ε-calibration. result Significantly decreases noise scale, leading to increased utility at the same risk level.
THERMOMETER calibrates LLMs efficiently for diverse tasks.
problem Calibrating large language models is challenging due to computational and versatility issues.
method THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model for calibrating a LLM using data from multiple tasks.
result THERMOMETER produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks.
New method improves calibration of BayesCG for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Bayesian conjugate gradient method's poor calibration limits its utility.
method Randomized postiteration strategy to enhance posterior calibration.
result The method improves the distribution of posterior errors and enhances uncertainty quantification.
Improved non-squeezing theorem for calibrated geometries proved.
problem Proving an improved non-squeezing theorem for calibrated geometries.
method Two proofs: direct and reduction to classical case.
result Established an improved non-squeezing theorem for calibrated geometries.
New truthful calibration errors improve model ranking in multiclass prediction.
problem Non-truthful calibration errors can mislead model comparisons.
method Introduced perfectly truthful calibration errors for multiclass predictions.
result Truthful calibration errors preserve decision-theoretic dominance and stabilize model rankings.
New method converts p-values to e-values for more efficient CP and aggregation.
problem Limitations of existing p-to-e calibrators in CP setting.
method Proposes a novel P2E calibrator for set-preserving calibration.
result Significant efficiency gains over existing p-to-e calibrators.
We systematically analyse the necessary and sufficient conditions for the preservation of supersymmetry for bosonic geometries of the form R^{1,9-d} \times M_d, in the common NS-NS sector of type II string theory and also type I/heterotic string theory. The results are phrased in terms of the intrinsic torsion of G-str…
Framework improves classifier calibration under differential privacy for domain shift.
problem Improving classifier calibration under domain shift with privacy constraints.
method Differential privacy framework for adapting recalibration algorithms.
result Novel accuracy temperature scaling algorithm outperforms existing methods on private datasets.
FedIRT enables privacy-preserving psychometric estimation without centralizing data.
problem Privacy and data governance concerns in centralized IRT estimation.
method Federated Item Response Theory (FedIRT) and FedIRT-DP for differentially private estimation.
result FedIRT matches accuracy of centralized estimators while preserving privacy.
Mix-n-Match improves uncertainty calibration in deep learning.
problem Post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers.
method Ensemble and composition strategies to improve accuracy, efficiency, and expressive power.
result Mix-n-Match strategies achieve better data-efficiency and expressive power while maintaining classification accuracy.
AECF improves multimodal inference robustness and calibration.
problem Robustness and calibration issues in multimodal systems with missing inputs.
method Adaptive Entropy-Gated Contrastive Fusion (AECF) layer.
result Improves masked-input mAP by +18 pp at a 50% drop rate.
New method preserves option structure while using neural networks for volatility.
problem Inconsistent exotic option prices with model calibration.
method Volatility Feature Approach (VFA) using neural networks.
result VFA outperforms model calibration approach for practical volatility surfaces.
Meta-learning reduces set prediction size in conformal prediction for few-shot calibration.
problem Inefficient set prediction in conformal prediction for limited training data.
method Meta-learning approach using cross-validation-based conformal prediction.
result Meta-learning scheme reduces set prediction size and preserves formal guarantees.
Excellent ranking power along with well calibrated probability estimates are needed in many classification tasks. In this paper, we introduce a technique, Calibrated Boosting-Forest that captures both. This novel technique is an ensemble of gradient boosting machines that can support both continuous and binary labels. …
Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.
problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.
Recently, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been achieving impressive results on wide range of tasks. However, they suffer from being well-calibrated. In decision-making applications, such as autonomous driving or medical diagnosing, the confidence of deep networks plays an important role to bring the trust and reliabil…
A simple method treats heteroscedastic variance variatively, improving model calibration and sample quality.
problem Brittle optimization impacts model likelihoods for mean and variance estimation.
method Proposes a variational approach to heteroscedastic variance, improving predictive mean and variance calibration.
result The proposed method significantly improves parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.
We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model, which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine models and relying on a reasonable number of parameters. A successful joint calibration t…
The calibration of noise for a privacy-preserving mechanism depends on the sensitivity of the query and the prescribed privacy level. A data steward must make the non-trivial choice of a privacy level that balances the requirements of users and the monetary constraints of the business entity. We analyse roles of the so…
Develops privacy-preserving methods for equivalence testing in healthcare.
problem Protecting patient data in healthcare studies.
method Differential privacy techniques for simulation-based calibration.
result Maintains type-I error control and comparable power to non-private methods.
New method calibrates LV surfaces for exotic derivatives with smoother, more stable Greeks.
problem Challenges in LV calibration leading to spiky surfaces and unstable Greeks.
method Automatic local regression to pre-process market observables and smooth LV surfaces.
result Significantly smoother LV surfaces and greatly improved Greek stability with negligible additional cost.
New method calibrates deep models for both in-distribution and out-of-distribution samples.
problem Ensuring calibration for deep models in safety-critical applications, especially in OOD regions.
method Geodesic distance and Gaussian kernel to calibrate deep models.
result Proposed KDF and KDN methods achieve well-calibrated posteriors for both in-distribution and out-of-distribution samples.
A fast calibration method for rough volatility models with jumps.
problem Calibrating stochastic volatility models to market data efficiently.
method Structure-preserving approach: split pricing formula, precompute data-independent integrals, and approximate market-dependent remainder with neural networks.
result Calibration achieves high accuracy and speed, and a pure-jump rough volatility model adequately captures VIX dynamics.
Miscalibration - a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness - of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as opposed to the standard cross-entropy loss, focal loss [Lin et. al., 2017] allows us…
BRPC online Bayesian calibration handles gradual and abrupt system changes.
problem Aligning model outputs with field observations in evolving systems.
method Bayesian Recursive Projected Calibration (BRPC) for streaming data under simulator mismatch and nonstationarity.
result Improves calibration accuracy under gradual changes and robustness under abrupt regime shifts.
New analysis shows how to balance privacy and accuracy in deep learning.
problem Balancing privacy and accuracy in deep learning models.
method Continuous time analysis through neural tangent kernel (NTK) for arbitrary architectures.
result Large clipping norm improves calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
A new framework separates classifier calibration and discrimination.
problem Combining reliability and resolution in probabilistic predictions.
method Manokhin Probability Matrix separates reliability and resolution using Spiegelhalter Z-statistic and AUC-ROC.
result Classifiers are categorized into four archetypes: Eagle, Bull, Sloth, and Mole.
Efficiently calibrates computationally expensive models using vine copulas.
problem Computational models are expensive and hard to calibrate with real data.
method Variational Bayes inference with vine copulas for dependent data.
result Computational scalability and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.
The discrete-time multifactor Vasiček model is a tractable Gaussian spot rate model. Typically, two- or three-factor versions allow one to capture the dependence structure between yields with different times to maturity in an appropriate way. In practice, re-calibration of the model to the prevailing market conditions …
These notes are based on lectures given at the Clay School on Geometry and String Theory, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge, 25 March - 19 April 2002. They attempt to provide an elementary and somewhat self contained discussion of the construction of supergravity solutions describing branes wrapping calibrated cycles, …
Study compares various calibration methods for binary classification tasks.
problem Improving probabilistic predictions in binary classification models.
method Benchmarked 21 classifiers using 5 calibration methods on real data.
result Venn-Abers predictors and Beta calibration show the largest log-loss reductions.
New methods reduce bias in estimating calibration error.
problem Reducing bias in estimating calibration error.
method Synthesizing model outputs and using equal-mass bins.
result Two reliable calibration-error estimators found: debiased estimator and ECE_sweep.
Enhances out-of-domain calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving calibration performance of deep neural networks in out-of-domain settings.
method Consistency-guided temperature scaling (CTS) that considers style and content consistency.
result Significantly enhances out-of-domain calibration performance.
The paper addresses errors in online selective conformal prediction and proposes new strategies to ensure valid inference.
problem Online selective conformal prediction's exchangeability issues and false coverage rate control problems.
method Evaluation and correction of existing calibration selection strategies, proposing new ones that preserve exchangeability.
result Novel calibration selection strategies ensure both selection-conditional coverage and FCR control.
On a Riemannian manifold Mˉm+n with an (m+1)-calibration Ω, we prove that an m-submanifold M with constant mean curvature H and calibrated extended tangent space RH⊕TM is a critical point of the area functional for variations that preserve the enclosed Ω-volume. This recovers the …
We enhance short-rate models to control implied volatility analytically.
problem Controlling implied volatility in short-rate models.
method Randomized Affine Diffusion (RAnD) method applied to Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework.
result Randomized short-rate models improve calibration and control implied volatility shapes.