arXiv research

This work improves confidence intervals for Cox model test error using nested CV.

Upper bounds for CV errors apply to lasso and other models.

K-fold cross-validation (CV) with squared error loss is widely used for evaluating predictive models, especially when strong distributional assumptions cannot be taken. However, CV with squared error loss is not free from distributional assumptions, in particular in cases involving non-i.i.d. data. This paper analyzes …

CV outperforms mean-variance for stock returns, minimizing risk and maximizing growth.

We prove that for $k\ge 5$ there does not exist a continuous map $\partial CV(F_k)\to\mathbb PCurr(F_k)$ that is either $Out(F_k)$-equivariant or $Out(F_k)$-anti-equivariant. Here $\partial CV(F_k)$ is the "length-function" boundary of Culler-Vogtmann's Outer space $CV(F_k)$, and $\mathbb PCurr(F_k)$ is the space of pr…

Manifold regularization, such as laplacian regularized least squares (LapRLS) and laplacian support vector machine (LapSVM), has been widely used in semi-supervised learning, and its performance greatly depends on the choice of some hyper-parameters. Cross-validation (CV) is the most popular approach for selecting the …

Cross-validation (CV) is often used to select the regularization parameter in high dimensional problems. However, when applied to the sparse modeling method Lasso, CV leads to models that are unstable in high-dimensions, and consequently not suited for reliable interpretation. In this paper, we propose a model-free cri…

Policy gradient methods have demonstrated success in reinforcement learning tasks that have high-dimensional continuous state and action spaces. However, policy gradient methods are also notoriously sample inefficient. This can be attributed, at least in part, to the high variance in estimating the gradient of the task…

We study the geometry of Outer Space $CV_n$ in regard of the asymmetric Lipschitz metric via envelopes, that is the set of all geodesics between two points. In the simplicial structure of $CV_n$ the envelopes are polytopes. We construct a piecewise unique geodesic between any two points in $CV_n$ by concatenating edges…

New method approximates CV efficiently for large-scale problems.

CV inference can be invalid for relatively unstable model comparisons.

New CVs preserve transition rates in molecular dynamics.

New method learns collective variables using autoencoders for molecular simulations.

Stochastic GD converges linearly for CV@R learning under certain conditions.

Careful tuning of a regularization parameter is indispensable in many machine learning tasks because it has a significant impact on generalization performances. Nevertheless, current practice of regularization parameter tuning is more of an art than a science, e.g., it is hard to tell how many grid-points would be need…

Study finds unsupervised imputation before cross-validation can reduce computational costs without significantly degrading model performance.

Meta-CVs leverage task similarity to reduce variance with limited data.

For the free group $F_{N}$ of finite rank $N \geq 2$ we construct a canonical Bonahon-type continuous and $Out(F_N)$-invariant \emph{geometric intersection form} \[ <, >: \bar{cv}(F_N)\times Curr(F_N)\to \mathbb R_{\ge 0}. \] Here $\bar{cv}(F_N)$ is the closure of unprojectivized Culler-Vogtmann's Outer space $cv(F_N)$…

New CV method reduces bias in spatial prediction models.

A method for efficient CV estimates in Bayesian hierarchical models.

Extending spatio-temporal scale limitations of models for complex atomistic systems considered in biochemistry and materials science necessitates the development of enhanced sampling methods. The potential acceleration in exploring the configurational space by enhanced sampling methods depends on the choice of collecti…

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular approach for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, when the number of folds is large, CV suffers from a need to repeatedly refit a learning procedure on a large number of training datasets. Recent work in empirical risk minimization (ERM) approximates the expensive refit…

Macromolecular and biomolecular folding landscapes typically contain high free energy barriers that impede efficient sampling of configurational space by standard molecular dynamics simulation. Biased sampling can artificially drive the simulation along pre-specified collective variables (CVs), but success depends crit…

LOOCV is often useful for analyzing small, structured experimental designs.

ALO-CV approximates leave-one-out error in proportional regime.

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally expensive process. In this paper, we propose a new approach to reduce the computa…

Ridge regression CV loss may have multiple local optima.

The paper analyzes the risk of CV-tuned regularized estimators and connects it to SURE.

Study the boundary of a space related to Outer space.

GPMI method interpolates uncertain atrial conduction velocity on non-Euclidean manifolds.

We define a new compactification of outer space $CV_N$ (the \emph{Pacman compactification}) which is an absolute retract, for which the boundary is a $Z$-set. The classical compactification $\overline{CV_N}$ made of very small $F_N$-actions on $\mathbb{R}$-trees, however, fails to be locally $4$-connected as soon as $N…

We consider the class of risk measures associated with optimized certainty equivalents. This class includes several popular examples, such as CV@R and monotone mean-variance. Numerical schemes are developed for the computation of these risk measures using Fourier transform methods. This leads, in particular, to a very …

The expected low market penetration of connected vehicles (CVs) in the near future could be a constraint in estimating traffic flow parameters, such as average travel speed of a roadway segment and average space headway between vehicles from the CV broadcasted data. This estimated traffic flow parameters from low penet…

A \emph{geodesic current} on a free group $F$ is an $F$-invariant measure on the set $\partial^2 F$ of pairs of distinct points of $\partial F$. The space of geodesic currents on $F$ is a natural companion of Culler-Vogtmann's Outer space $cv(F)$ and studying them together yields new information about both spaces as we…

A new method improves robustness and efficiency of Bayesian LOO-CV.

Selection of appropriate collective variables for enhancing sampling of molecular simulations remains an unsolved problem in computational biophysics. In particular, picking initial collective variables (CVs) is particularly challenging in higher dimensions. Which atomic coordinates or transforms there of from a list o…

RandALO speeds up risk estimation for large datasets.

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique for evaluating the ability of statistical models/learning systems based on a given data set. Despite its wide applicability, the rather heavy computational cost can prevent its use as the system size grows. To resolve this difficulty in the case of Bayesian linear regression, we dev…

The success of enhanced sampling molecular simulations that accelerate along collective variables (CVs) is predicated on the availability of variables coincident with the slow collective motions governing the long-time conformational dynamics of a system. It is challenging to intuit these slow CVs for all but the simpl…

Efficient CV for ESNs improves time series predictions.

Prior design is one of the most important problems in both statistics and machine learning. The cross validation (CV) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are predictive measures of the Bayesian estimation, however, it has been difficult to apply them to find the optimal prior because their mathematic…

K-fold CV improves machine learning model selection but faces challenges with small datasets.

ACV improves structured data CV, handling dependence and noisy initial fits.

MDA optimizer performs similarly to SGD+M in CV and Adam in NLP.

We study fibrations $\cV$ of toric varieties over the flag variety $G/T$, where $G$ is a compact semisimple Lie group and $T$ is a maximal torus. From symplectic data, we construct test configurations of $\cV$ and compute their Futaki invariants by employing a generalization of Pick's Theorem. We also give a simple for…

Study shows minimizing the norm of the ERM solution stabilizes kernel ridge-less regression.

Study compares mutation validation and cross-validation for model selection.

We rephrase some well-known results in Donaldson-Thomas theory in terms of (formal families of) Frobenius type and CV-structures on a vector bundle in the sense of Hertling. We study these structures in an abstract setting, and prove a convergence result which is relevant to the case of triangulated categories. An appl…