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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for CUSUM statistics

Paper optimizes change detection in unnormalized distributions.

problem Detecting changes in unnormalized pre- and post-change distributions.
method Log-Partition Approximation Cumulative Sum (LPA-CUSUM) algorithm based on thermodynamic integration.
result Asymptotically optimal performance achieved through unbiased estimation of CUSUM statistics.

FOCuS detects changes in mean from high-frequency data efficiently.

problem Detecting changes in high-frequency data with limited resources.
method FOCuS algorithm that runs multiple window sizes and change sizes simultaneously.
result FOCuS achieves state-of-the-art performance in detecting anomalies.

Paper detects and estimates breaks in high-dimensional functional time series.

problem Detecting and estimating structural breaks in heterogeneous mean functions of high-dimensional functional time series.
method Proposes a new test statistic combining functional CUSUM and power enhancement components, with a clustering algorithm for group structure estimation.
result The proposed techniques have satisfactory performance in finite samples, detecting and estimating breaks effectively.

Detecting weak clustered signal in spatial data is important but challenging in applications such as medical image and epidemiology. A more efficient detection algorithm can provide more precise early warning, and effectively reduce the decision risk and cost. To date, many methods have been developed to detect signals…

2019-04-05abs ↗pdf ↗

New exact tests detect changepoints in binary and count data, especially when normal approximations fail.

problem Detecting changepoints in multichannel binary and count data.
method Exact tests combining two-sample conditional tests with multiplicity correction.
result Exact tests are much more powerful than asymptotic tests in various settings.

New method detects and locates changes in spatio-temporal point processes.

problem Detecting and localizing changes in spatio-temporal data.
method Score-based, likelihood-free approach estimating change time and region.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on detection and localization accuracy.

New method detects changes in high-dimensional Markov processes without explicit likelihood evaluation.

problem Quickest change detection in Markov processes with unknown transition kernels.
method Learn conditional score from sample pairs, develop score-based CUSUM procedure.
result Exponential lower bounds on mean time to false alarm and asymptotic upper bounds on detection delay.

Deep learning generates efficient change-point detection methods.

problem Detecting change-points in data with various types of change and data behavior.
method Train a neural network to automatically generate detection methods.
result Neural network-based methods are competitive and outperform standard methods in various noise conditions.

Detects graph topology changes from noisy signals using prior spectral information.

problem Detecting changes in graph topology from graph signals.
method Leverages graph filtering and subspace detection to distill problem into a CUSUM-based algorithm.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of incorporating prior spectral signatures for change-point detection.

We propose a method that performs anomaly detection and localisation within heterogeneous data using a pairwise undirected mixed graphical model. The data are a mixture of categorical and quantitative variables, and the model is learned over a dataset that is supposed not to contain any anomaly. We then use the model o…

2016-07-20abs ↗pdf ↗

The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability distribution. This hypothesis is close, in certain respects, to the hypothesis of exchangeab…

2019-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in typical applied problems. Instead we p…

2017-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithms detect and react to multiple change points in online learning.

problem Learning under multiple change points in environments with unknown and frequent shifts.
method Proposed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC) algorithms that balance detection of significant shifts.
result Properly tuned ATC algorithms achieve nearly minimax-optimal performance.

New method detects strong calibration in ML models, even for small poorly calibrated subgroups.

problem Auditing machine learning models for strong calibration is difficult, especially for small poorly calibrated subgroups.
method Reorder observations by expected residuals and use changepoint detection for score-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test.
result The proposed adaptive CUSUM test consistently achieved higher power and more than doubled power in auditing mortality risk prediction models.

This paper improves change-point detection for complex data streams using denoising score matching.

problem Timely identification of distributional shifts in high-dimensional, complex data streams.
method Score-based CUSUM change-point detection with denoising score matching.
result Denoising score matching enhances detection power by effectively controlling noise scale.

We study the problem of detecting a change in the mean of one-dimensional Gaussian process data. This problem is investigated in the setting of increasing domain (customarily employed in time series analysis) and in the setting of fixed domain (typically arising in spatial data analysis). We propose a detection method …

2015-06-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The goal of Ordinal Regression is to find a rule that ranks items from a given set. Several learning algorithms to solve this prediction problem build an ensemble of binary classifiers. Ranking by Projecting uses interdependent binary perceptrons. These perceptrons share the same direction vector, but use different bia…

2019-11-25abs ↗pdf ↗

The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model…

2011-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.

problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.

The paper introduces a statistical version of contact CR-product for Sasakian statistical manifolds.

problem Characterizing geometric properties of contact CR-submanifolds in Sasakian statistical manifolds.
method Characterization of integrability of invariant and anti-invariant distributions, development of results on specific types of contact CR submanifolds, introduction of statistical contact CR-product.
result Introduction of a statistical version of contact CR-product for Sasakian statistical manifolds.

This paper simplifies computing higher-order UU-statistics efficiently.

problem The inefficiency of computing higher-order UU-statistics in practice.
method Decomposition, connection to Einstein summation, and treewidth-based complexity estimate.
result A new, more efficient algorithm to compute UU-statistics.

This paper studies the geometry of immersions into statistical manifolds. A necessary and sufficient condition is obtained for statistical manifold structures to be dual to each other for a non-degenerate equiaffine immersion. Then we obtain conditions for realizing an n-dimensional statistical manifold in an (n+1)-dim…

2018-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

This work uses statistical mechanics to explain AI learning.

problem Understanding the statistical principles behind AI learning.
method Starting from sample concentration behaviors, the study applies statistical mechanics principles to AI and machine learning.
result Exponential families and statistical quantities are key in AI and machine learning.

The differential geometry of Kenmotsu manifold is a valuable part of contact geometry with nice applications in other fields such as theoretical physics. In fact, its statistical counterpart, that is, Kenmotsu statistical manifold also has same importance as that of Kenmotsu manifold. Theoretical physicists have also b…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Author presents the second variational formula for statistical biharmonic maps.

problem Developing a formula for statistical biharmonic maps.
method Introduced the second variational formula for the statistical bi-energy functional.
result The second variational formula can be represented using Hessian curvature in Hessian manifolds.

New statistics are introduced that maintain the Fisher metric structure closely, akin to sufficient statistics.

problem Maintaining the Fisher metric structure in statistical models.
method Characterizing statistics that maintain the Fisher metric structure bi-Lipschitz equivalently.
result Characterized statistics that preserve the Fisher metric structure closely.

Lightlike hypersurfaces of a statistical manifold are studied. It is shown that a lightlike hypersurface of a statistical manifold is not a statistical manifold with respect to the induced connections, but the screen distribution has a canonical statistical structure. Some relations between induced geometric objects wi…

2019-01-26abs ↗pdf ↗