TGARCH model shows CSI-300 futures reduce spot price volatility.
problem Impact of CSI-300 futures trading on spot price volatility.
method TGARCH model applied to CSI-300 index data.
result CSI-300 futures trading significantly reduces spot price volatility.
This paper models CSI 300 index volatility using machine learning and addresses jump prediction.
problem Volatility modeling and jump prediction for high-frequency CSI 300 index data.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with machine learning algorithms for parameter estimation and forecast evaluation.
result Deterministic component of stochastic volatility processes can be captured over short and longer-term windows.
Adaptive learning model forecasts financial prices using order book data.
problem Forecasting high-frequency financial time series with non-stationary data.
method Adaptive learning model based on order book data, with stationarity and non-stationarity considerations.
result The model outperforms top fixed models and improves forecasting accuracy.
This study presents an agent-based computational cross-market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index futures to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions …
Modeling price dynamics in response to order flow imbalance in Chinese futures markets.
problem Understanding price dynamics in markets with order flow imbalance.
method Modeling order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics.
result Horizon-dependent heterogeneity in conventional metrics' interaction with order flow imbalance.
Deep model improves option pricing for CSI 300 index with sentiment and volatility features.
problem Challenges in real market option pricing, especially with constant volatility assumption.
method Deep Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (FBSDE) framework with dual-network architecture.
result Significant reduction in MAE and MAPE compared to BSM model.
Paper proposes a reinforcement learning method for trading using expert trajectories.
problem Inability of existing methods to handle long-term goals and delayed rewards in futures trading.
method Modeling futures trading as MDP, using reinforcement learning with expert trajectories and multiple short-term alpha factors.
result The proposed method outperforms traditional and deep learning methods in trading performance.
Forecasting stock market direction is always an amazing but challenging problem in finance. Although many popular shallow computational methods (such as Backpropagation Network and Support Vector Machine) have extensively been proposed, most algorithms have not yet attained a desirable level of applicability. In this p…
A new stock selection strategy uses combined machine learning with dynamic weighting methods.
problem Improving stock selection accuracy and performance.
method Combined machine learning algorithms with static and dynamic weighting methods.
result IC-based dynamic weighting outperforms static evaluation metrics in backtested returns and predictive performance.
Paper uses Ricci curvature to measure and forecast China's stock market stability.
problem Measuring and predicting systemic stability of China's stock market.
method Geometric measure derived from discrete Ricci curvature applied to financial networks.
result Ricci curvature effectively captures market stability and predicts future trends.
Paper proposes MSSDDPG for better financial trading strategies.
problem Extracting accurate features from noisy, non-stationary financial time series.
method Multi-scale stroke deep deterministic policy gradient reinforcement learning model (MSSDDPG).
result MSSDDPG outperforms other strategies in China's CSI 300 and SSE Composite.
QuantaAlpha uses evolutionary algorithms to mine financial alpha robustly across market distributions.
problem Challenges in alpha mining due to market noise and regime shifts.
method Evolutionary framework treating each mining run as a trajectory, mutation, crossover, targeted revision, and reuse of effective patterns.
result Consistent gains over strong baselines and prior systems, achieving high IC and ARR.
MiM-StocR combines momentum indicators and adaptive ranking loss for better stock recommendation.
problem Lack of simultaneous short-term trend and ranking prediction in stock recommendation models.
method Integrates momentum indicators and proposes Adaptive-k ApproxNDCG for ranking optimization.
result MiM-StocR outperforms state-of-the-art MTL baselines in stock recommendation.
PandaAI: A practical agent for neuro-symbolic data analysis and decision-making in finance
problem Sequential decision-making in finance
method Leveraging LLMs for market regime modeling and constrained alpha generation
result PandaAI achieves higher Rank IC and lower maximum drawdown
Volatility forecasting and return prediction in high-frequency Chinese equity markets.
problem Improving statistical forecasting performance and economic strategy outcomes in equity markets.
method Developing a sequential two-stage framework combining realized volatility modeling and XGBoost return prediction.
result Regime-aware volatility forecasting outperforms baseline models.
We present an advance bubble detection methodology based on the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator for the early causal identification of positive and negative bubbles in the Chinese stock market using the daily data on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 stock market index from January 2002 thro…
Study reveals 2020 stock crashes were mostly endogenous, not exogenous.
problem Identifying the cause of the 2020 global stock market crash.
method Applied log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) methodology to analyze stock market indexes.
result The 2020 stock market crashes were mostly endogenous, driven by systemic instability.
MASA framework uses RL to balance portfolio returns and risks.
problem Managing portfolio risk in turbulent financial markets.
method Multi-agent reinforcement learning with a market observer.
result MASA framework outperforms RL approaches in balancing returns and risks.
A framework uses attention mechanisms to optimise financial portfolios by reducing noise and balancing returns.
problem Balancing investment returns and risks in noisy financial markets.
method Multi-agent framework with attention mechanisms and time series analysis.
result MASAAT framework produces more balanced portfolios with enhanced performance.
Study compares deep learning stock trading strategies in adverse market conditions.
problem Comparing deep learning models for stock trading performance in extreme market downturns.
method Reconstructed three deep learning models and compared their strategies through trading simulations.
result Deep learning models, especially LSTM, can mitigate losses in severe market downturns.
New framework models stock relationships and investor expectations for better financial market predictions.
problem Limited by predefined stock relationships and immediate effects, current financial market analysis methods need improvement.
method Jointly models investor expectations and automatically mines latent stock relationships.
result Annual return exceeds 10%, surpassing existing benchmarks.
Paper proposes a new portfolio model for better investment decisions.
problem Traditional portfolio models fail to adapt to nonstationary markets.
method Developed a mean-detrended cross-correlation portfolio model (M-DCCP model).
result The M-DCCP model outperforms traditional models in constructing optimal portfolios.
Study shows investor sentiment boosts intraday trading in Chinese markets.
problem Impact of investor sentiment on intraday overtrading in Chinese A-share markets.
method High-frequency sentiment indices from social media analyzed for intraday overtrading in CSI 300 and CSI 500 constituents.
result Investor sentiment significantly increases intraday overtrading, especially among institutional investors.
PRISM-VQ combines financial priors with vector quantization for better stock prediction.
problem Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is hard due to low signal-to-noise ratios and changing market conditions.
method Integrates expert priors, vector-quantized latent factors, and dynamic factor loadings.
result Consistent improvements in cross-sectional return prediction and portfolio performance.
The MAXFLAT low-pass filter improves factor adjustment for better portfolio performance in China's stock market.
problem Improving factor adjustment for better portfolio performance in China's stock market.
method Using MAXFLAT low-pass volatility model to adjust factors and construct portfolios.
result Adjusted factors by MAXFLAT volatility model show better performance in both large and small cap universes.
The study explains stock return distributions using reaction functions.
problem Stock return distributions often deviate from normal distributions.
method Assumes normal event/information effects, financial over/underreaction, proposes reaction function model.
result Financial markets often underreact to minor events, overreact to significant ones, and react stronger to positive events.
Hierarchical AI multi-agent framework optimizes equity portfolios in China's A-share market.
problem Optimizing equity portfolios in China's A-share market using AI and multi-agent systems.
method A hierarchical multi-agent design integrating macro, firm-level, and reinforcement learning approaches.
result Consistently outperforms benchmarks and state-of-the-art systems on risk-adjusted returns and drawdown control.
Deep RL optimizes dynamic portfolio weights in China's stock market.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization methods struggle with dynamic asset weight adjustments.
method Developed a deep reinforcement learning framework with novel reward functions and random sampling.
result Model outperforms traditional methods in portfolio optimization and risk mitigation.
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
problem Predicting futures prices with trends and bid-ask spreads.
method Bayesian Kriging technique to model term structure.
result Kriging accurately predicts futures prices with embedded trends and bid-ask spreads.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
Weak predictability of stock price movement 2 days after annual report disclosure.
problem Predicting stock price movement after annual report disclosure.
method Used various models including decision tree, logistic regression, random forest, neural network, prototypical networks; used financial indicators from EastMoney.
result Maximum accuracy and precision of stock price movement prediction is around 59.6% and 0.56 respectively, with random forest performing best.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks,…
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
Study improves prediction of commodity futures using multi-factor model.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting commodity futures prices.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating yield curve dynamics.
result Functional regression model outperforms Schwartz-Smith model in estimating short-end of futures curve.
Study examines how arbitrage between ETF and futures affects market liquidity during crashes.
problem Impact of arbitrage between leveraged ETF and futures on market liquidity during market crashes.
method Artificial market simulations to investigate liquidity changes in L-ETF and futures markets.
result Arbitrage trading affects liquidity supply from one market to another during market crashes.
Model prices commodity futures and index options.
problem Deriving accurate prices for derivative contracts on commodity futures and indices.
method Stochastic local volatility model for commodity futures.
result Model accurately recovers prices of derivative claims.
We consider portfolio optimization in futures markets. We model the entire futures price curve at once as a solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. The agents objective is to maximize her utility from the final wealth when investing in futures contracts. We study a class of futures price curve models wh…
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
This study analyzes the correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets using RMT.
problem Understanding the complex correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets.
method Random Matrix Theory (RMT) applied to analyze correlation coefficients and eigenvalues.
result The correlation structure is asymmetric and right skewed, with significant eigenvalues indicating market effects and commodity groups.
Paper builds a supervised learning model for Chinese futures price prediction.
problem Predicting the trend of Chinese futures prices accurately.
method Supervised learning model designed for futures price movement classification.
result The model meets accuracy requirements for classifying futures price movements.
Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
New method for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs using future-dependent value functions.
problem Curse of horizon in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs.
method Develops future-dependent value functions and minimax learning method.
result PAC result and Bellman completeness for the proposed OPE estimator.
Hierarchical graph learning for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
problem Developing machine-learning methods for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
method Proposing a hierarchical graph learning approach
result Outperforming benchmark models in both prediction and trading performance