Paper proposes method for generating paths of stochastic volatility CGMY process for option pricing.
problem Generating accurate sample paths for stochastic volatility models for option pricing.
method Monte-Carlo method for European and American options, least square regression for calibration.
result Calibrated model parameters to S\&P 100 index options market using path-dependent options.
A new method samples CGMY processes efficiently by decomposing their time changes.
problem Sampling CGMY processes with finite or infinite variation.
method Exploiting time change representation, decomposing into two independent components.
result The method is advantageous over existing methods in simulations.
The Wiener-Hopf factorization is obtained in closed form for a phase type approximation to the CGMY Lévy process. This allows, for the approximation, exact computation of first passage times to barrier levels via Laplace transform inversion. Calibration of the CGMY model to market option prices defines the risk neutral…
Study prices energy derivatives using specific stochastic processes.
problem Pricing energy derivatives in markets driven by specific stochastic processes.
method Calculated characteristic functions, derived non-arbitrage conditions, and developed efficient algorithms for simulation.
result Developed methods for pricing various energy contracts.
This paper extends subordinated models to include stochastic time changes, improving financial modeling.
problem Improving financial models to better capture market features like jump clustering and volatility persistence.
method Subordinated processes with Levy and stochastic arrival mechanisms.
result Strong consistency and asymptotic normality results for VG and VGSA processes under various stochastic arrival models.
New method estimates tempered stable Lévy models with high accuracy.
problem Estimating volatility and jump intensity of tempered stable Lévy processes.
method Iterative method combining Truncated Realized Quadratic Variations and small-time approximations.
result Method outperforms existing alternatives in various scenarios.
The CGMY model's ATM call-price asymptotics are derived using characteristic function.
problem Deriving short-time asymptotics for the CGMY model's ATM call prices.
method Using the characteristic function, derived short-time asymptotics for the CGMY model's ATM call prices. Extracted higher-order coefficients by dynamic cutoff partitioning.
result Higher-order coefficients are derived for the CGMY model's ATM call prices.
Develops information geometry for Lévy processes in finance.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of Lévy processes for financial modeling.
method Deriving α-divergences from Lévy triplets, identifying Fisher information matrix and α-connection. result Identifies statistical implications and differential-geometric structures of Lévy processes.
Develops a PIDE framework for option pricing with stochastic volatility and jumps.
problem Option pricing under stochastic volatility and jumps.
method PIDE framework derived from Lévy-type process, implemented via finite-difference discretization with FFT for nonlocal jump operator, calibrated using GMM.
result Stochastic volatility accounts for most pricing improvement, reducing implied-volatility RMSE by 39% compared to Black-Scholes.
Extends option pricing framework without risk-free asset using Levy jumps.
problem Valuing derivatives in markets without a traded risk-free bond.
method Introduces common Levy jump dynamics, uses Ito-Levy calculus, FFT, and COS algorithms.
result Calibrations show jump models reduce pricing errors and fit volatility smiles better than Black-Scholes.
The optimal dividend problem by De Finetti (1957) has been recently generalized to the spectrally negative Lévy model where the implementation of optimal strategies draws upon the computation of scale functions and their derivatives. This paper proposes a phase-type fitting approximation of the optimal strategy. We con…
A third-order approximation for close-to-the-money European option prices under an infinite-variation CGMY Lévy model is derived, and is then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian component. The asymptotic regime considered, in which the strike is made to converge to the spot stock price as the ma…
We consider the performance of non-optimal hedging strategies in exponential Lévy models. Given that both the payoff of the contingent claim and the hedging strategy admit suitable integral representations, we use the Laplace transform approach of Hubalek et al. (2006) to derive semi-explicit formulas for the resulting…
The short-time asymptotic behavior of option prices for a variety of models with jumps has received much attention in recent years. In the present work, a novel second-order approximation for ATM option prices under the CGMY Lévy model is derived, and then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian com…
Develops a Monte Carlo algorithm for tempered stable process extrema.
problem Calculating the extrema of exponentially tempered Lévy processes.
method Novel Monte Carlo algorithm based on increments of the process.
result Geometrically fast convergence and optimal computational complexity.
The COS method proposed in Fang and Oosterlee (2008), although highly efficient, may lack robustness for a number of cases. In this paper, we present a Stable pricing of call options based on Fourier cosine series expansion. The Stability of the pricing methods is demonstrated by error analysis, as well as by a series …
We derive a small-time expansion for out-of-the-money call options under an exponential Levy model, using the small-time expansion for the distribution function given in Figueroa-Lopez & Houdre (2009), combined with a change of numéraire via the Esscher transform. In particular, we quantify find that the effect of a no…
One popular approach to option pricing in Lévy models is through solving the related partial integro differential equation (PIDE). For the numerical solution of such equations powerful Galerkin methods have been put forward e.g. by Hilber et al. (2013). As in practice large classes of models are maintained simultaneous…
The NIG model outperforms others in pricing S&P 500 index options.
problem Analyzing and pricing S&P 500 index options with Lévy jumps.
method Parameter estimation using SSE method for various models (BS, SV, SVJ, non-IID, Lévy (GH, NIG, CGMY)).
result NIG model outperforms other models in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods.
We present a new numerical method to price vanilla options quickly in time-changed Brownian motion models. The method is based on rational function approximations of the Black-Scholes formula. Detailed numerical results are given for a number of widely used models. In particular, we use the variance-gamma model, the CG…
Introduces a new class of hybrid processes combining Markov chains and Hawkes processes.
problem Characterize and ensure existence and uniqueness of complex hybrid marked point processes.
method Defines hybrid marked point processes implicitly via intensity and state process interactions, proving existence and uniqueness under general assumptions.
result Proves existence and uniqueness of hybrid marked point processes, extending existing results.
This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.
Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.
problem Need for models with fat tails and computational tractability.
method Represent elliptical distributions as continuous mixtures of Gaussian distributions, derive closed-form expressions for marginal and conditional distributions.
result Elliptical processes offer advantages in robust regression compared to Gaussian processes.
Directly proves CRP from stick-breaking process without measure theory.
problem Indirect proof of CRP from stick-breaking process is complex.
method Direct proof using stick-breaking process to CRP, avoiding measure theory.
result Direct proof connects stick-breaking process to CRP.
We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying Poisson process is equal to that of the beta process. We use this underlying re…
SNP extends Neural Processes to handle temporal dependencies in sequences.
problem Handling temporal dependencies in sequences of stochastic processes.
method Integrates a temporal state-transition model into Neural Processes.
result First 4D model capable of dynamic 3D scene modeling.
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…
Efficient methods for Lévy models using SINH-regular processes.
problem Efficient numerical methods for evaluating Lévy models.
method Defining SL-processes and sSL-processes, deriving properties of characteristic exponent, and showing all popular Lévy processes can be subordinated to Brownian motion.
result All crucial properties of characteristic exponent are consequences of a specific representation, and all popular Lévy processes are SL- or sSL-subordinated Brownian motion.
The aim of process discovery, originating from the area of process mining, is to discover a process model based on business process execution data. A majority of process discovery techniques relies on an event log as an input. An event log is a static source of historical data capturing the execution of a business proc…
GRM uses graph neural networks to score process activity relevance.
problem Improving business processes with performance measures.
method Graph Relevance Miner (GRM) based on graph neural networks.
result Quantitatively evaluated relevance scores with four datasets.
Researchers study the geometric properties of a specific type of stable processes.
problem Understanding the information geometry of tempered stable processes.
method Derivation of α-divergence, Fisher information matrices, and α-connections.
result Obtained Fisher information matrices and α-connections for statistical manifolds.
This study bridges discrete and continuous state spaces using the Ehrenfest process and diffusion models.
problem Understanding the relationship between discrete and continuous state spaces in stochastic processes.
method Investigates time-continuous Markov jump processes on discrete state spaces and their correspondence to state-continuous diffusion processes.
result The time-reversal of the Ehrenfest process converges to the time-reversed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, bridging discrete and continuous state spaces.
Paper proposes a new method for online process discovery.
problem Online process discovery requires limited memory.
method Mapped online process discovery to cache memory management and applied cache replacement policies.
result Implemented and evaluated a new approach for online process discovery.
Student's-T processes improve on Gaussian processes by handling outliers and variance more flexibly.
problem Outliers and variance limitations in Gaussian processes.
method Generalization of Gaussian processes using Student's-T distribution, with new kernel function and update rule.
result Student's-T processes provide better performance in Bayesian optimization, especially with outliers.
The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…
Proposes a new BSP-Tree process for flexible space partition modeling.
problem Limited modelling flexibility of axis-aligned partitions in Mondrian process.
method Introduces a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process with oblique cuts.
result Clear inferential improvements over standard Mondrian process and related methods.
Elliptical processes extend Gaussian models with heavier tails.
problem Regression and classification with non-Gaussian likelihoods or heavy tails.
method Spline normalizing flow for variational inference of elliptical distributions.
result Elliptical processes outperform Gaussian processes in non-Gaussian settings.
Recurrent neural networks improve process instance classification.
problem Classifying ongoing process instances based on activities.
method Applied recurrent neural networks, specifically GRU, to classify business process instances.
result GRU outperforms LSTM in training time with similar accuracy.
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give t…
We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from cond…
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.
The paper introduces new processes for modeling multivariate volatility.
problem Developing new stochastic processes for multivariate volatility modeling.
method Introducing Volterra Wishart and Volterra pure jump processes with fractional kernels.
result Affine covariance processes for multivariate volatility modeling.
Paper introduces non-linear process convolutions for multi-output Gaussian processes.
problem Building accurate covariance functions for multi-output Gaussian processes.
method Volterra series for non-linearity, closed-form expressions for mean and covariance.
result Non-linear model outperforms classical process convolution in synthetic and real datasets.
New process from fractional BM and OU process yields simpler variance.
problem Simpler model for autocovariance structure.
method Construct new process using fractional BM and OU process, analyze increments.
result Variance of new process easier to compute than FARIMA.
Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
problem Error probability in classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
method Asymptotic expressions for Bhattacharyya bound on misclassification error probabilities.
result Obtained asymptotic expressions for misclassification error probabilities.
Study shows convergence rates for BSDEs approximated by compound Poisson processes.
problem Analyzing convergence rates of BSDEs driven by Lévy processes.
method Approximating Lévy processes by compound Poisson processes and studying BSDEs.
result Optimal convergence rates derived for BSDEs in L2-norm and Wasserstein distance.