This paper explains CART random forests using stochastic control theory.
problem Understanding the inner workings of CART random forests.
method Developed a stochastic-control perspective on CART random forests, interpreting feature subsampling as a random feasible action set and the split rule as a policy.
result Established that the CART policy is locally stabilizing but globally suboptimal for the forest objective.
Paper explores grafting consistent estimators to improve Random Forest consistency.
problem Ensuring Random Forests are consistent despite their performance.
method Grafting consistent estimators onto a shallow CART.
result Grafted estimators provide a consistency guarantee and perform well empirically.
A single slow-growing tree matches Random Forest's performance.
problem Matching Random Forest's performance with a single tree.
method SGT uses a learning rate to tame CART's greedy algorithm, improving on greedy ML algorithms.
result SGT and tree ensembles like Booging, BT, and RF improve performance.
The infinitesimal jackknife (IJ) has recently been applied to the random forest to estimate its prediction variance. These theorems were verified under a traditional random forest framework which uses classification and regression trees (CART) and bootstrap resampling. However, random forests using conditional inferenc…
AF improves classification models by adaptively weighting trees.
problem Improving classification model performance.
method AF combines OP2T for input-dependent weights and MIO for dynamic refinement.
result AF consistently outperforms RF, XGBoost, and other weighted RF.
Improved Random Forests detect pure interactions better.
problem Random Forests struggle with certain pure interactions.
method Alternative partitioning schemes during tree construction.
result Improved Random Forests enhance fitting ability in scenarios with pure interactions.
A new method for decision tree selection in recommendation systems.
problem Feature-based selection of a single tree from an ensemble for dynamic interpretation.
method A multi-armed contextual bandit recommendation framework that trains a system on top of Random Forests to identify the most relevant tree.
result The dynamic method outperforms an independent CART tree and is comparable to Random Forest in predictive performance.
TRUST improves tree models' accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
problem Piecewise-constant regression trees lack in predictive accuracy compared to black-box models.
method Combines Random Forest accuracy with interpretability of shallow trees and sparsity of linear models, using LLMs for explanations.
result TRUST outperforms other interpretable models in predictive accuracy and matches Random Forest's accuracy.
RLF uses Riemann-Lebesgue cutting for better regression.
problem Improving regression accuracy through novel tree splitting.
method Develops Riemann-Lebesgue Tree (RLT) for partitioning response intervals.
result RLF achieves larger variance reduction compared to CART.
Decision trees with binary splits are popularly constructed using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology. For binary classification and regression models, this approach recursively divides the data into two near-homogenous daughter nodes according to a split point that maximizes the reduction in sum of …
Decision trees are consistent for regression and classification tasks even with many predictors.
problem Consistency of decision trees with many predictors.
method CART and C4.5 methodology, oracle inequality, sparsity constraints.
result Decision trees and random forests are consistent for various types of data.
Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
problem Estimating conditional densities for mixed data types.
method Tree-based framework modeling conditional distributions as piecewise-constant densities on adaptive partitions, minimizing conditional negative log-likelihood.
result Improved probabilistic prediction compared to CART-style trees and state-of-the-art methods.
Undirected graphical models encode in a graph G the dependency structure of a random vector Y. In many applications, it is of interest to model Y given another random vector X as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the graph G(x) of Y conditioned on X=x as ``graph-valued regression.'' In this pap…
Paper predicts Indian stocks using news psycholinguistic features.
problem Predicting Indian stock market performance using financial news.
method Hybrid intelligent models using psycholinguistic variables (LIWC and TAALES) from news articles.
result GMDH and GRNN are statistically the best techniques for prediction.
FIGS improves prediction performance while maintaining interpretability, especially in medical domains.
problem Lack of interpretability in machine learning models, particularly in high-stakes domains like medicine.
method Generalizes CART algorithm to grow multiple trees in summation, combining logical rules with addition.
result FIGS achieves state-of-the-art prediction performance and derives interpretable clinical decision instruments (CDIs).
We focus on wind power modeling using machine learning techniques. We show on real data provided by the wind energy company Ma{ï}a Eolis, that parametric models, even following closely the physical equation relating wind production to wind speed are outperformed by intelligent learning algorithms. In particular, the CA…
A new randomized tree classifier outperforms traditional CARTs.
problem Traditional greedy CARTs are slow and inaccurate.
method Optimal decision trees using continuous optimization.
result Randomized tree classifier outperforms traditional CARTs.
Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However, a fundamental flaw in the partitioning (or splitting) rule of commonly used tre…
Data mining and machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) represent a promising alternative to conventional logistic regression for propensity score estimation. Whereas incomplete data preclude the fitting of a logistic regression on all subjects, CART is appealing in part because s…
In this paper, we introduce a framework for solving finite-horizon multistage optimization problems under uncertainty in the presence of auxiliary data. We assume the joint distribution of the uncertain quantities is unknown, but noisy observations, along with observations of auxiliary covariates, are available. We uti…
Causal trees struggle with accuracy in estimating treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal treatment effects using recursive decision trees.
method Adaptive recursive partitioning with and without sample splitting.
result Causal tree estimators can have uniform-norm errors decreasing more slowly than any power of the sample size.
Ensembles of randomized decision trees, usually referred to as random forests, are widely used for classification and regression tasks in machine learning and statistics. Random forests achieve competitive predictive performance and are computationally efficient to train and test, making them excellent candidates for r…
New split rules improve subpopulation targeting in policy-making.
problem Improving binary classification for subpopulation targeting in policy-making.
method MDFS, PFS, wEFS for maximizing distance and penalizing final splits.
result Proposed methods target more vulnerable subpopulations than classic CART/KD-CART.
New random forest method provides optimal rates and confidence bands.
problem Improving random forest regression rates and constructing confidence bands.
method Proposed Ehrenfest centered purely random forests achieve optimal rates; used Gaussian approximation for supremum of empirical processes.
result Explicit asymptotic uniform confidence bands constructed for both random forest types.
Improved random forest proximities capture data geometry.
problem Inaccurate random forest proximities do not reflect learned data geometry.
method Introduce RF-GAP: Geometry- and Accuracy-Preserving proximities.
result RF-GAP improves geometric representation in tasks like data imputation.
We propose random hinge forests, a simple, efficient, and novel variant of decision forests. Importantly, random hinge forests can be readily incorporated as a general component within arbitrary computation graphs that are optimized end-to-end with stochastic gradient descent or variants thereof. We derive random hinge…
Random forests reduce bias and variance, especially in low SNR settings.
problem Reducing bias and variance in machine learning models, particularly in low SNR scenarios.
method Empirical study of random forests and bagging ensembles, focusing on the importance of mtry tuning. result Random forests reduce both bias and variance, outperforming bagging ensembles in high SNR settings.
Proposes a new tree-based algorithm for class-imbalanced data.
problem Classification of imbalanced data.
method Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) classification tree algorithm.
result The PRC classification tree outperforms classic algorithms for class-imbalanced data.
Improved random forest models enhance machine learning predictions.
problem Equal weights for random forest base decision trees are not optimal.
method Proposes algorithms to modify weighting strategy of regular random forest.
result Numerical results show significant improvements over regular random forest.
Enhances random forest consistency and introduces DMRF for improved performance.
problem Improving the consistency and efficiency of random forest algorithms.
method Strengthened proof methods and propose DMRF algorithm.
result DMRF achieves better theoretical and experimental performance than previous variants.
New random forest variants achieve optimal performance in high dimensions.
problem Handling dependencies between features in high-dimensional data.
method Using oblique splits in random forests with general split directions.
result Achieved minimax optimal convergence rates in arbitrary dimension.
This paper is a comment on the survey paper by Biau and Scornet (2016) about random forests. We focus on the problem of quantifying the impact of each ingredient of random forests on their performance. We show that such a quantification is possible for a simple pure forest , leading to conclusions that could apply more…
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
Enhances random forest performance with exogenous randomness.
problem Improving random forest performance through exogenous randomness.
method Developed non-asymptotic MSE expansions for individual trees and forests, identified two types of randomness, and conducted simulations.
result Exogenous randomness, particularly feature subsampling, reduces both bias and variance of random forests.
There are various algorithms and methodologies used for automated screening of cervical cancer by segmenting and classifying cervical cancer cells into different categories. This study presents a critical review of different research papers published that integrated AI methods in screening cervical cancer via different…
We improve random forest consistency and performance with DMRF, a new variant.
problem Improving the consistency and performance of random forest models.
method Developed DMRF, a data-driven multinomial random forest, by modifying proof methods and improving data utilization.
result DMRF achieves strong consistency with probability 1, surpassing previous models in classification tasks.
Online random forests improve Q-learning performance in specific gym environments.
problem Improving Q-learning performance in reinforcement learning tasks.
method Proposed online random forests as Q-function approximators and growing them as learning progresses.
result Improved performance over state-of-the-art Deep Q-Networks in specific gym environments.
Random forests have proven to be reliable predictive algorithms in many application areas. Not much is known, however, about the statistical properties of random forests. Several authors have established conditions under which their predictions are consistent, but these results do not provide practical estimates of ran…
Transforms random forests into efficient neural networks using imitation learning.
problem Inefficient architectures of existing methods for transforming random forests into neural networks.
method Generates training data from a random forest and learns a neural network to imitate its behavior.
result Implicit transformation creates efficient neural networks with better generalization.
Theoretical study of random forests for nonlinear time series.
problem Theoretical justification for using random forests in time series modeling.
method Uniform concentration inequality for regression trees and random forests consistency proof.
result Consistency of random forests for nonlinear autoregressive processes.
We propose an algorithm named best-scored random forest for binary classification problems. The terminology "best-scored" means to select the one with the best empirical performance out of a certain number of purely random tree candidates as each single tree in the forest. In this way, the resulting forest can be more …
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
Alpha-trimming prunes trees in random forests to improve predictive performance.
problem Improving predictive performance of random forests by locally adaptive tree pruning.
method Alpha-trimming is a fast pruning algorithm that prunes trees in a random forest based on signal-to-noise ratio, controlled by a tuning parameter.
result Alpha-trimming often lowers mean squared prediction error compared to fully grown random forests.
New methods improve prediction performance and reduce computation time in boosting and random forest models.
problem Improving prediction performance and reducing computation time in boosting and random forest models.
method Random tree depth injection approach for Boosting and Random Forests.
result The new methods can improve prediction performance and reduce computation time by up to 40%.
This paper presents an out-of-sample prediction comparison between major machine learning models and the structural econometric model. Over the past decade, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool in many prediction applications, but this approach is still not widely adopted in empirical economic stu…
Random forests are a type of ensemble method which makes predictions by combining the results of several independent trees. However, the theory of random forests has long been outpaced by their application. In this paper, we propose a novel random forests algorithm based on cooperative game theory. Banzhaf power index …
A random forest is a popular tool for estimating probabilities in machine learning classification tasks. However, the means by which this is accomplished is unprincipled: one simply counts the fraction of trees in a forest that vote for a certain class. In this paper, we forge a connection between random forests and ke…
The study optimizes free trial lengths to boost subscriptions and consumer loyalty.
problem Optimizing free trial lengths to maximize customer acquisition and retention.
method A large-scale field experiment with personalized policy design and evaluation.
result Personalized free trial policies outperform uniform trial lengths.