A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper explains CART random forests using stochastic control theory.
Paper explores grafting consistent estimators to improve Random Forest consistency.
A single slow-growing tree matches Random Forest's performance.
The infinitesimal jackknife (IJ) has recently been applied to the random forest to estimate its prediction variance. These theorems were verified under a traditional random forest framework which uses classification and regression trees (CART) and bootstrap resampling. However, random forests using conditional inferenc…
AF improves classification models by adaptively weighting trees.
Improved Random Forests detect pure interactions better.
A new method for decision tree selection in recommendation systems.
TRUST improves tree models' accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
RLF uses Riemann-Lebesgue cutting for better regression.
Decision trees with binary splits are popularly constructed using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology. For binary classification and regression models, this approach recursively divides the data into two near-homogenous daughter nodes according to a split point that maximizes the reduction in sum of …
Financial forecasting using news articles is an emerging field. In this paper, we proposed hybrid intelligent models for stock market prediction using the psycholinguistic variables (LIWC and TAALES) extracted from news articles as predictor variables. For prediction purpose, we employed various intelligent techniques …
Decision trees are consistent for regression and classification tasks even with many predictors.
Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
Undirected graphical models encode in a graph the dependency structure of a random vector . In many applications, it is of interest to model given another random vector as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the graph of conditioned on as ``graph-valued regression.'' In this pap…
FIGS improves prediction performance while maintaining interpretability, especially in medical domains.
We focus on wind power modeling using machine learning techniques. We show on real data provided by the wind energy company Ma{ï}a Eolis, that parametric models, even following closely the physical equation relating wind production to wind speed are outperformed by intelligent learning algorithms. In particular, the CA…
A new randomized tree classifier outperforms traditional CARTs.
Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However, a fundamental flaw in the partitioning (or splitting) rule of commonly used tre…
Data mining and machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) represent a promising alternative to conventional logistic regression for propensity score estimation. Whereas incomplete data preclude the fitting of a logistic regression on all subjects, CART is appealing in part because s…
In this paper, we introduce a framework for solving finite-horizon multistage optimization problems under uncertainty in the presence of auxiliary data. We assume the joint distribution of the uncertain quantities is unknown, but noisy observations, along with observations of auxiliary covariates, are available. We uti…
Causal trees struggle with accuracy in estimating treatment effects.
Ensembles of randomized decision trees, usually referred to as random forests, are widely used for classification and regression tasks in machine learning and statistics. Random forests achieve competitive predictive performance and are computationally efficient to train and test, making them excellent candidates for r…
New split rules improve subpopulation targeting in policy-making.
New random forest method provides optimal rates and confidence bands.
Improved random forest proximities capture data geometry.
We propose random hinge forests, a simple, efficient, and novel variant of decision forests. Importantly, random hinge forests can be readily incorporated as a general component within arbitrary computation graphs that are optimized end-to-end with stochastic gradient descent or variants thereof. We derive random hinge…
Random forests reduce bias and variance, especially in low SNR settings.
Proposes a new tree-based algorithm for class-imbalanced data.
Improved random forest models enhance machine learning predictions.
Enhances random forest consistency and introduces DMRF for improved performance.
New random forest variants achieve optimal performance in high dimensions.
This paper is a comment on the survey paper by Biau and Scornet (2016) about random forests. We focus on the problem of quantifying the impact of each ingredient of random forests on their performance. We show that such a quantification is possible for a simple pure forest , leading to conclusions that could apply more…
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
Enhances random forest performance with exogenous randomness.
We improve random forest consistency and performance with DMRF, a new variant.
There are various algorithms and methodologies used for automated screening of cervical cancer by segmenting and classifying cervical cancer cells into different categories. This study presents a critical review of different research papers published that integrated AI methods in screening cervical cancer via different…
Online random forests improve Q-learning performance in specific gym environments.
Random forests have proven to be reliable predictive algorithms in many application areas. Not much is known, however, about the statistical properties of random forests. Several authors have established conditions under which their predictions are consistent, but these results do not provide practical estimates of ran…
Theoretical study of random forests for nonlinear time series.
We propose an algorithm named best-scored random forest for binary classification problems. The terminology "best-scored" means to select the one with the best empirical performance out of a certain number of purely random tree candidates as each single tree in the forest. In this way, the resulting forest can be more …
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
Alpha-trimming prunes trees in random forests to improve predictive performance.
New methods improve prediction performance and reduce computation time in boosting and random forest models.
This paper presents an out-of-sample prediction comparison between major machine learning models and the structural econometric model. Over the past decade, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool in many prediction applications, but this approach is still not widely adopted in empirical economic stu…
Random forests are a type of ensemble method which makes predictions by combining the results of several independent trees. However, the theory of random forests has long been outpaced by their application. In this paper, we propose a novel random forests algorithm based on cooperative game theory. Banzhaf power index …
A random forest is a popular tool for estimating probabilities in machine learning classification tasks. However, the means by which this is accomplished is unprincipled: one simply counts the fraction of trees in a forest that vote for a certain class. In this paper, we forge a connection between random forests and ke…
The study optimizes free trial lengths to boost subscriptions and consumer loyalty.
Despite widespread interest and practical use, the theoretical properties of random forests are still not well understood. In this paper we contribute to this understanding in two ways. We present a new theoretically tractable variant of random regression forests and prove that our algorithm is consistent. We also prov…