This paper surveys black-box attacks on computer vision models.
problem Real-life adversarial attacks on deep learning models.
method Comprehensive comparative study of attacks and defenses.
result Significant amount of research on reliability of models.
Optimal strategy found for minimizing loss in shopper's dilemma.
problem Minimizing loss in a two-period decision-making process.
method Derived from the two-envelope paradox and Black Friday promotion.
result Optimal strategy found to minimize expected loss.
ARBO-DART optimizes battery storage dispatch in day-ahead and real-time markets.
problem Optimizing battery storage dispatch in day-ahead and real-time markets.
method Adaptive Refinement Bayesian Optimization (ARBO) for Day-Ahead and Real-Time (ARBO-DART) markets.
result ARBO-DART optimizes battery storage dispatch without requiring analytic gradients or finite-scenario approximations.
Jacobi solved geodesics on triaxial ellipsoids.
problem Finding the shortest path on a triaxial ellipsoid.
method Numerical evaluation of integrals and solving coupled equations.
result Solution for geodesics on triaxial ellipsoids.
Optimal ski rental strategies with machine learning predictions.
problem Minimizing ski rental costs with uncertain future days.
method Derive optimal randomized algorithms using machine learning predictions.
result Class of optimal algorithms with minimized competitive ratio.
LSTM Networks accurately forecast COVID-19 cases in Turkey with lower error than other methods.
problem Forecasting total COVID-19 cases in Turkey using machine learning.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks for forecasting.
result LSTM Networks outperform other methods in forecasting accuracy.
A new framework for SPX and VIX hedging that combines AI and market dynamics.
problem Jointly hedging SPX and VIX exposures under transaction costs and regime shifts.
method Integrates an SSVI-based implied-volatility surface and a Cboe-compliant VIX computation with a control layer that enforces safety as constraints.
result Reduces expected shortfall while suppressing nuisance turnover in a reproducible synthetic environment.
We point out a stunning time asymmetry in the short time cross correlations between intra-day and overnight volatilities (absolute values of log-returns of stock prices). While overnight volatility is significantly (and positively) correlated with the intra-day volatility during the \textit{following} day (allowing thu…
We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…
New study finds day-of-the-week effects in stock market returns using multifractal analysis.
problem Exploring calendar anomalies in stock markets, particularly day-of-the-week effects.
method Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) applied to daily returns of market indices.
result Monday returns exhibit more persistent behavior and richer multifractal structures than other days.
The paper challenges current views on day trading, finding it economically viable.
problem Current views on day trading's economic sustainability and operational performance.
method Theoretical propositions and detailed analysis of a previous study.
result Day trading is economically sustainable and operational performance can evolve over time.
Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.
problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.
Study examines crypto-backed stable derivatives in DeFi, focusing on DAI.
problem Stability of crypto-backed stablecoins in DeFi.
method Introduced a belief parameter to simulate DAI, proposed a mathematical model, analyzed risk factors.
result Belief parameter improves simulation of DAI price stability.
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
problem Forecasting intra-day price spreads for electricity traders and operators.
method Dynamic density functions based on skewed-t distributions, conditional on exogenous drivers.
result Best fitting and forecasting specifications selected using Pinball Loss function.
We select the n stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the k trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We study the ensemble return distribution for each trading day and we find that the symmetry properties of the ensem…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange…
Study analyzes Airbnb lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value, finding divergent shapes and tail behavior.
problem Analyzing lead-time distributions for Airbnb demand metrics.
method Compositional analysis of daily lead-time vectors, fitting Gamma, Weibull, and Lognormal distributions, using generalized Pareto for tail inference.
result Lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value diverge, with GBV concentrating more in mid-range horizons.
This thesis improves interpretability of tree-based machine learning models.
problem Complex and opaque machine learning models used in critical applications.
method Improves understanding of tree-based methods like Random Forests.
result Enhanced interpretability of tree-based models.
A new loss function boosts AI's stock trading performance.
problem Improving AI's ability to predict stock prices and make profitable trades.
method Introducing a return-weighted loss function for deep learning models.
result Best models achieve high annual returns and Sharpe Ratios.
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time intervals, like months instead of days.
Study provides long-term EMG data for multi-day biometric authentication.
problem Limited long-term EMG data for multi-day biometric authentication.
method Collected EMG data from 43 participants over three days.
result Multi-day biometric authentication results in low error rates.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
problem Predicting stock market volatility on Election Day.
method Combining large language models with specialized agents.
result EDSMF model improves S&P 500 prediction accuracy.
In this paper we perform a statistical analysis over the returns and relative prices of the CAC 40 and the S\&P 500 with the purpose of analyzing the intra-day seasonalities of single and cross-sectional stock dynamics. In order to do that, we characterized the dynamics of a stock (or a set of stocks) by the evolut…
The paper simplifies electricity market curves with less parameters.
problem Modeling electricity prices and demands efficiently.
method Mesh-free interpolation using radial basis functions.
result The method reduces parameters needed to represent curves.
Paper predicts cryptocurrency bull and bear phases using Bitcoin's moving averages.
problem Determining cryptocurrency bull and bear phases based on Bitcoin performance.
method Employing predictive algorithms to forecast Bitcoin's 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages.
result Predicted data from Bitcoin's moving averages helps identify potential bull and bear phases.
DAIS minimizes symmetrized KL divergence between initial and target distributions.
problem Optimizing over initial distributions in importance sampling.
method Differentiable annealed importance sampling (DAIS) minimizing symmetrized KL divergence.
result DAIS minimizes symmetrized KL divergence between initial and target distributions.
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return vo…
Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.
problem Linear dependence of volatility and mean in accumulated stock returns.
method Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution analysis.
result Linear dependence of volatility and mean on the number of days of accumulation.
We describe the impact of the intra-day activity pattern on the autocorrelation function estimator. We obtain an exact formula relating estimators of the autocorrelation functions of non-stationary process to its stationary counterpart. Hence, we proved that the day seasonality of inter-transaction times extends the me…
Predicts morning traffic congestion using social media data from the previous evening.
problem Challenges in predicting early morning traffic dynamics.
method Mining Twitter messages to understand evening/midnight work and rest patterns.
result People's tweeting patterns before the morning commute are associated with traffic congestion.
Paper classifies pillow box isometric deformations preserving crease patterns.
problem Classifying pillow box isometric deformations preserving crease patterns.
method Continuous isometric deformations from pillow boxes to double rectangles, preserving crease patterns.
result Such deformations necessarily change pillow box topology.
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, t…
Accumulated stock returns exhibit tempered skew t-distribution.
problem Analyzing the distribution of stock returns over multiple days.
method Employing a tempered skew t-distribution model.
result Tempered skew t-distribution fits the distribution of accumulated stock returns well.
Study finds CRPS learning doesn't improve day-ahead bidding profits despite better accuracy.
problem Improving day-ahead bidding profits through better probabilistic price forecasting.
method CRPS learning to minimize continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) for ensemble predictions.
result Higher diversity in ensemble predictions improves accuracy but doesn't lead to higher profits.
DAIS improves AIS by resampling, avoiding gradient issues.
problem Low effective sample size in DAIS.
method DAIS with resampling step to improve efficiency.
result Resampling step avoids gradient variance issues.
A winning method for day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
problem Day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Online forecast combination of multiple point prediction models with a holiday adjustment procedure and smoothed Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA).
result Excellent forecasting performance, particularly due to the holiday adjustment procedure and fully adaptive smoothed BOA approach.
A new data-driven model forecasts electricity prices efficiently.
problem Forecasting electricity prices using traditional methods.
method Integrates data-driven and fundamental models, learns from historical data.
result Significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to existing models.
DAIS improves AIS for differentiable marginal likelihood estimation.
problem Differentiable marginal likelihood estimation for complex models.
method Proposes Differentiable Annealed Importance Sampling (DAIS) to make AIS differentiable.
result DAIS achieves convergence and consistency in Bayesian linear regression.
We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian error correction mo…
Study reveals how illiquidity network signals Chinese stock market crashes.
problem Understanding and predicting Chinese stock market crashes.
method Established an illiquidity network to model market dynamics.
result Market crashes are preceded by a more densely connected illiquidity network.
Deep Q-learning optimizes same-day delivery with vehicles and drones.
problem Optimizing same-day delivery with limited vehicle and drone capacities.
method Deep Q-learning approach to assign packages to vehicles or drones.
result Deep Q-learning policy outperforms benchmark policies and maintains effectiveness with changing fleet sizes.
ODS improves adversarial attacks by maximizing output diversity.
problem Efficiency and effectiveness of adversarial attacks, especially black-box attacks.
method Output Diversified Sampling (ODS) that maximizes diversity in model outputs.
result ODS reduces the number of queries needed for black-box attacks on ImageNet by a factor of two.
This paper examines autocorrelation in major crypto markets, finding persistent correlations on short time frames.
problem Assessing the efficiency of major cryptocurrency markets through autocorrelation analysis.
method Pearson's autocorrelation coefficient, Ljung-Box test, rolling window analysis.
result Persistent autocorrelation on 5m and 1H time frames, disagreement on 1D and 1W time frames.
Novel approach predicts long-term seasonal component of electricity prices for improved forecasting.
problem Improving day-ahead electricity price forecasting accuracy.
method Extracts trend-seasonal pattern from extrapolated price series using autoregressive and LASSO models.
result Improves predictive accuracy by 3-15% in root mean squared error and 1% in profits.
Study interprets deep learning models for Heston model in finance.
problem Interpreting black-box deep learning models in finance.
method Investigated Heston model using local and global strategies from cooperative game theory.
result Shapley values can effectively explain neural networks and improve model architecture selection.
New research shows many recent defenses against adversarial examples are ineffective against black-box attacks.
problem The robustness of recent defenses against adversarial examples is insufficient, especially against black-box attacks.
method Evaluation of nine defenses on two black-box adversarial models and six attacks on CIFAR-10 and Fashion-MNIST datasets.
result Most recent defenses provide only marginal improvements in security (<25%) compared to undefended networks. Two-stage method improves solar forecasting accuracy.
problem Inaccurate solar forecasting due to nonstationary data.
method Two-stage approach: linear and nonlinear forecasting, data processing.
result Improved accuracy of solar forecasting results.
In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market…