A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper proposes a framework for precise daily default risk prediction of Chinese credit bonds.
Study finds implicit government guarantee improves municipal investment bond ratings.
Selective planning with imperfect models reduces harmful effects of model inadequacy.
Approximates bond option volatilities using affine short-rate models.
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
There is an observed basis between repo discounting, implied from market repo rates, and bond discounting, stripped from the market prices of the underlying bonds. Here, this basis is explained as a convexity effect arising from the decorrelation between the discount rates for derivatives and bonds. Using a Hull-White …
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
Unified framework for pricing various debt securities.
There are more than eight hundred interest rates published in China bond market every day. Which are the benchmark interest rates that have broad influences on most interest rates is a major concern for economists. In this paper, multi-variable Granger causality test is developed and applied to construct a directed net…
The paper uses option theory to estimate corporate bond liquidity spreads.
The VIX is used to model corporate bond volatility and returns.
Empirical study on long-term discount rates using historical bond prices.
Develops a new model to better predict corporate bond yields.
Unified Bayesian framework for CAT bond pricing.
The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but also by other contractual characteristics of the bond that are not commonly assoc…
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
Faster WIND accelerates iterative BOND for LLM alignment.
We derive simple return models for several classes of bond portfolios. With only one or two risk factors our models are able to explain most of the return variations in portfolios of fixed rate government bonds, inflation linked government bonds and investment grade corporate bonds. The underlying risk factors have nat…
Hedging strategies in bond markets are computed by martingale representation and the Clark-Ocone formula under the choice of a suitable of numeraire, in a model driven by the dynamics of bond prices. Applications are given to the hedging of swaptions and other interest rate derivatives, and our approach is compared to …
Investors choose between bonds and savings accounts based on utility maximization.
This paper proves existence of the long bond, long forward measure and long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) of Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) in Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) models in the function space framework of Filipovic (2001). A sufficient condition on the wei…
A market with defaultable bonds where the bond dynamics is in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton setting and the forward rates are driven by an infinite number of Levy factors is considered. The setting includes rating migrations driven by a Markov chain. All basic types of recovery are investigated. We formulate necessary and suff…
Investigates how 'green' labels affect bond market dynamics.
Model for corporate bond pricing with credit rating migration, solving a double free boundary problem.
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations in case the short rate is assumed to depend also on other stochastic factors. Ou…
Modeling longevity bonds with a Vasicek model for better risk management.
A pricing formula for discount bonds, based on the consideration of the market perception of future liquidity risk, is established. An information-based model for liquidity is then introduced, which is used to obtain an expression for the bond price. Analysis of the bond price dynamics shows that the bond volatility is…
The classical derivation of the well-known Vasicek model for interest rates is reformulated in terms of the associated pricing kernel. An advantage of the pricing kernel method is that it allows one to generalize the construction to the Lévy-Vasicek case, avoiding issues of market incompleteness. In the Lévy-Vasicek mo…
The optimal strategies for a long-term static investor are studied. Given a portfolio of a stock and a bond, we derive the optimal allocation of the capitols to maximize the expected long-term growth rate of a utility function of the wealth. When the bond has constant interest rate, three models for the underlying stoc…
We study convexity and monotonicity properties for prices of bonds and bond options when the short rate is modeled by a diffusion process. We provide conditions under which convexity of the price in the short rate is guaranteed. Under these conditions the price is decreasing in the drift and increasing in the volatilit…
This paper examines how ESG factors influence sovereign bond yields and credit ratings.
This paper analyses the Chinese Sovereign bond yield to find out the principal factors affecting the term structure of interest rate changes. We apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on our data consisting of the Chinese Sovereign bond from January 2002 till May 2018 with the different yield to maturity. Then we wil…
We propose a model for the credit markets in which the random default times of bonds are assumed to be given as functions of one or more independent "market factors". Market participants are assumed to have partial information about each of the market factors, represented by the values of a set of market factor informa…
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
Proposes a bond portfolio solution for managing interest rate risk.
We consider the problem of hedging a European interest rate contingent claim with a portfolio of zero-coupon bonds and show that an HJM type Markovian model driven by an infinite number of sources of randomness does not have some of the shortcomings found in the classical finite-factor models. Indeed, under natural con…
This paper proposes a Monte Carlo technique for pricing the forward yield to maturity, when the volatility of the zero-coupon bond is known. We make the assumption of deterministic default intensity (Hazard Rate Function). We make no assumption on the volatility of the yield. We actually calculate the initial value of …
Asymptotic Laplace transform for geometric Brownian motion applied to bond pricing.
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
Deep learning framework for bond and yield curve forecasting with no-arbitrage constraints.
We analyze analytic approximation formulae for pricing zero-coupon bonds in the case when the short-term interest rate is driven by a one-factor mean-reverting process with a volatility nonlinearly depending on the interest rate itself. We derive the order of accuracy of the analytical approximation due to Choi and Wir…
Study uses VIX for zero-coupon Treasury rates, proving long-term stability and returns.
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
We propose an option approach for pricing bond illiquidity that is reminiscent of the celebrated work of Longstaff (1995) on the non-marketability of some non-dividend-paying shares in IPOs. This approach describes a quite common situation in the fixed income market: it is rather usual to find issuers that, besides liq…
Open AI models affect bond yields differently than closed ones.
In this paper we compare two classical one-factor diffusion models which are used to model the term structure of interest rates. One of them is based on the Wiener-Bachelier process while the second one is based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We show essential differences between the prices of European call options…
I explain the root of persistent failure of efforts to remove tax-induced distortions of economic incentives. It lies in FUNDAMENTAL IMPOSSIBILITY of objectively evaluating tax base. Distortions can be entirely avoided in the sector of publicly traded corporations. Evaluation can be bypassed by taxing it in shares (to …