This paper investigates the effects of the launch of Bitcoin futures on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. Based on one-minute price data collected from four cryptocurrency exchanges, we first examine the change in realized volatility after the introduction of Bitcoin futures to investigate their aggregate effects on …
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48 results for “Bitcoin futures”
Paper compares ETF and futures carry rates in segmented Bitcoin markets.
problem Limitations in cross-margining between spot Bitcoin and CME futures.
method Estimates carry rates from IBIT options and CME futures, uses put-call parity and daily ETF holdings.
result Mean and median wedge in carry rates is 2.58 and 2.52 percent, respectively.
Regulated Bitcoin futures led to higher volatility and trading volume.
problem Estimating the impact of regulated Bitcoin futures on volatility and volume.
method Employed a new causal approach, C-ARIMA.
result Regulated Bitcoin futures increased Bitcoin volatility by more than double.
Study examines liquidation, leverage, and optimal margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
problem Understanding and optimizing margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
method Empirical analysis using generalized extreme value theory and BitMEX data.
result Margin requirements need to be significantly higher to reduce daily margin calls.
The paper analyzes gold, oil, and bitcoin futures volatility and basis.
problem Understanding the volatility and basis of gold, oil, and bitcoin futures.
method Contract-by-contract analysis of spot and futures prices, trading volume, and open interest data.
result Trading volume positively affects volatility in all three assets, while open interest has a possible negative effect.
Hedging with Bitcoin Futures: The Effect of Liquidation Loss Aversion and Aggressive Tradingq-fin.RM
Study optimizes Bitcoin futures hedging to reduce liquidation risk.
problem Optimizing hedging strategies to minimize liquidation risk in Bitcoin futures.
method Derived a semi-closed form optimal hedging strategy considering spot and futures extreme returns, loss aversion, leverage, and collateral management.
result Optimal strategy reduces both hedged portfolio variance and liquidation probability.
Are Bitcoins price predictable? Evidence from machine learning techniques using technical indicatorsq-fin.ST
The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machin…
Cohort analysis speeds up Bitcoin blockchain data queries.
problem Efficiently querying Bitcoin blockchain data for economic insights.
method Cohort analysis applied to Bitcoin transaction data.
result Creation of datasets and visualizations for key Bitcoin transaction indicators.
Modeling the price of Bitcoin with geometric fractional Brownian motion: a Monte Carlo approachq-fin.CP
The long-term dependence of Bitcoin (BTC), manifesting itself through a Hurst exponent , is exploited in order to predict future BTC/USD price. A Monte Carlo simulation with geometric fractional Brownian motion realisations is performed as extensions of historical data. The accuracy of statistical inferen…
Study compares altcoins to Bitcoin, analyzing their features and market performance.
problem Comparing altcoins to Bitcoin to understand market performance and features.
method Used Google Trend data, price, volume, and market capitalization data from coinmarketcap.com.
result Features of Litecoin, Zcash, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Gold affect market performance and user preferences.
Cryptocurrency, the most controversial and simultaneously the most interesting asset, has attracted many investors and speculators in recent years. The visibly significant market capitalization of cryptos also motivates modern financial instruments such as futures and options. Those will depend on the dynamics, volatil…
The Impact of Bitcoin ETF Approval on Bitcoin's Hedging Properties Against Traditional Assetsq-fin.GN
ETF approval boosts Bitcoin's correlation with equities, stabilizes with gold, and maintains negative correlation with fiat currencies.
problem Impact of Bitcoin ETF approval on Bitcoin's relationships with traditional assets.
method Rolling correlation analysis, Chow tests, and DCC-GARCH models.
result Bitcoin's correlation with equities increased significantly post-ETF approval, while its relationship with gold stabilized and remained negatively correlated with fiat currencies.
Model predicts Bitcoin's future movements using multimodal pattern matching.
problem Challenges in predicting Bitcoin's volatile future movements.
method Ranking similar past chart patterns given current chart information.
result Improves directional prediction of Bitcoin's future movements.
Institutional Adoption and Correlation Dynamics: Bitcoin's Evolving Role in Financial Marketsq-fin.PM
Bitcoin's integration with major financial indices intensifies, suggesting a shift from alternative to integrated asset.
problem Understanding Bitcoin's evolving role in financial markets and its correlation dynamics.
method Rolling-window correlation, static correlation coefficients, and event-study framework on daily data from 2018 to 2025.
result Correlation levels between Bitcoin and major indices reached 0.87 in 2024, indicating a more integrated role.
Paper predicts cryptocurrency bull and bear phases using Bitcoin's moving averages.
problem Determining cryptocurrency bull and bear phases based on Bitcoin performance.
method Employing predictive algorithms to forecast Bitcoin's 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages.
result Predicted data from Bitcoin's moving averages helps identify potential bull and bear phases.
The study finds significant power-law cross correlations in Bitcoin's return-volatility dynamics.
problem Investigating asymmetry in Bitcoin's return-volatility relationships.
method Analysis of daily and high-frequency Bitcoin data to identify cross correlations.
result Power-law cross correlations between returns and future volatilities are observed, indicating long-range dependencies.
Bitcoin option prices reflect both market maker supply and trader demand, especially from those with insider information.
problem Understanding how market prices of bitcoin options are influenced by both market makers and informed traders.
method Analysis of Deribit options tick-level data to identify supply and demand effects.
result At-the-money option prices are driven by volatility traders, while out-of-the-money options are influenced by both volatility traders and those with insider information.
This paper examines the relationship between Inverse Perpetual Swap contracts, a Bitcoin derivative akin to futures and the margin funding interest rates levied on BitMEX. This paper proves the Heteroskedastic nature of funding rates and goes onto establish a causal relationship between the funding rates and the Bitcoi…
Report presents analysis of empirical distribution of future returns of bitcoin (BTC) from BTUSD inverse option prices. Logistic pdf is chosen as underlying distribution to fit option prices. The result is satisfactory and suggests that these prices can be described with just three or even one parameter. Fitted Logisti…
Study shows Bitcoin mining with surplus electricity can boost KEPCO's financial stability.
problem Improving energy resource efficiency and reducing KEPCO's debt.
method Utilized surplus electricity for Bitcoin mining using Antminer S21 XP Hyd, analyzed with Random Forest Regressor and Long Short-Term Memory models.
result Bitcoin mining with surplus electricity generates economic revenue, minimizes energy loss, and resolves payment issues for KEPCO.
The paper tests if optimal hedge ratios for Bitcoin are position-dependent.
problem Testing if optimal hedge ratios for Bitcoin are position-dependent.
method Explicit and efficient method for testing symmetric vs. asymmetric optimal hedge ratios in a multivariate setting.
result The optimal hedge ratio for Bitcoin is position-dependent, with long positions having a higher ratio than short positions.
Classical time series models forecast Bitcoin prices and volatility accurately.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin prices and volatility using classical models.
method ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH models were trained and tested on Bitcoin price data.
result ARIMA models performed best for short-term price dynamics, while EGARCH models were best for volatility.
This paper presents a large Bitcoin transaction graph dataset for research.
problem Lack of a comprehensive dataset for Bitcoin research.
method Created a large-scale transactions graph dataset with timestamps.
result Established a large publicly available dataset for advanced research.
The paper examines Bitcoin's nature using fractal geometry and finds it highly persistent, affecting predictability and decentralization.
problem Understanding the nature and predictability of Bitcoin prices.
method Statistical analysis of Bitcoin returns using fractal geometry.
result Bitcoin exhibits high persistence in prices, reducing efficiency but increasing predictability.
New PU ratio predicts long-term Bitcoin returns better than other methods.
problem Lack of convincing proxies for cryptocurrency fundamentals.
method Developed a new market-to-fundamental ratio (PU ratio) using blockchain accounting methods.
result PU ratio effectively predicts long-term Bitcoin returns compared to alternative methods.
The paper predicts Bitcoin prices using machine learning and sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting the future price of Bitcoin in USD.
method Applied supervised machine learning and sentiment analysis to Twitter and Reddit data.
result LSTM models with multi-feature analysis outperformed ARIMA models in predicting Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin is considered the most valuable currency in the world. Besides being highly valuable, its value has also experienced a steep increase, from around 1 dollar in 2010 to around 18000 in 2017. Then, in recent years, it has attracted considerable attention in a diverse set of fields, including economics and computer…
This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which interact with each other by trading Bitcoins. Each agent is initially endowed wi…
Bitcoin Gold, Litecoin Silver:An Introduction to Cryptocurrency's Valuation and Trading Strategycs.CE
This study compares Bitcoin and Litecoin using cryptocurrency metrics and trading strategies.
problem Valuation and trading strategies for cryptocurrencies.
method Metrics like UTXO, STXO, WAL, CDD, and trading strategies based on PU ratio.
result Bitcoin's superior store-of-value proposition compared to Litecoin validated.
Study predicts Bitcoin volatility using Twitter data.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin volatility with social media data.
method Deep learning models using Twitter data, including semantic and user statistics.
result Temporal convolutional networks outperform other models in volatility prediction.
We discuss Russia's underlying motives for issuing its government-backed cryptocurrency, CryptoRuble, and the implications thereof and of other likely-soon-forthcoming government-issued cryptocurrencies to some stakeholders (populace, governments, economy, finance, etc.), existing decentralized cryptocurrencies (such a…
In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin price and volatility. Machine learning models like recurrent neural network (RNN) an…
Bi-LSTM with attention predicts gold and bitcoin prices accurately.
problem Predicting prices of gold and bitcoin in financial derivatives markets.
method Bidirectional LSTM neural network with attention mechanism, feature engineering, two-layer deep learning.
result Achieved 71.94% and 73.03% accuracy for bitcoin and gold respectively.
Bitcoin price prediction models fail to outperform a simple 'today's price' baseline, especially at longer horizons.
problem Lack of robust models that consistently outperform a naive price predictor at various horizons.
method Surveyed peer-reviewed papers, categorized by evaluation methodology, contrasted with social media discourse, and proposed methodological standards.
result No peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes at short-to-medium horizons.
This paper analyses the relationship between BitCoin price and supply-demand fundamentals of BitCoin, global macro-financial indicators and BitCoin attractiveness for investors. Using daily data for the period 2009-2014 and applying time-series analytical mechanisms, we find that BitCoin market fundamentals and BitCoin…
Informer model with GMADL loss outperforms benchmarks in high frequency Bitcoin trading.
problem Developing automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data.
method Informer architecture with RMSE, GMADL, and Quantile loss functions.
result Informer model with GMADL loss function outperforms benchmarks in trading outcomes.
A trading system uses LLMs to adapt to volatile crypto markets.
problem Volatility and market sentiment in cryptocurrencies make traditional models ineffective.
method Specialized LLM agents for technical analysis, sentiment evaluation, and decision-making; verbal feedback for continuous improvement.
result Agents outperform buy-and-hold strategy with consistent gains across market phases.
This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand equations in a GARCH framework using hourly data fo…
Over the past decade, the blockchain technology and its Bitcoin cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings in daily and long-term valuations. In this paper, we propose a partial differential equation (PDE) model on the bitcoin transaction network for predicting…
Study shows Bitcoin security tied to mining rewards and prices.
problem Understanding Bitcoin security's dependency on market outcomes.
method Used ARDL approach with daily blockchain and Bitcoin data from 2014-2019.
result Bitcoin security outcomes linked to Bitcoin price and mining rewards.
Bitcoin Does Not Hedge Inflationq-fin.PR
Bitcoin reacts negatively to inflation surprises, contrary to belief.
problem Bitcoin's ability to hedge inflation is questioned.
method Examined cryptocurrency responses to macroeconomic news announcements.
result Bitcoin's price decreases by 24 bps in response to inflationary surprises.
Study uses neural networks to value Bitcoin options considering price jumps and sentiment.
problem Valuing Bitcoin options under price jumps and market sentiment.
method Bivariate jump-diffusion model, incorporating Google search sentiment, and artificial neural networks.
result Derives a closed formula for Bitcoin option pricing and validates using high-volatile stocks.
Study examines Bitcoin market fragmentation and price formation, revealing market leader-lagger dynamics and trading strategies.
problem Understanding price formation in fragmented Bitcoin markets at sub-second time scales.
method Utilized granular orderbook and trades data, constructed features, and trained linear models to explain market returns.
result Fee regime determines market leadership and profitability of taker strategies, maker strategies tested in real-world trading.
Study tests if equity factors explain Bitcoin's risk and returns.
problem Explaining Bitcoin's risk and return with equity factors.
method Applied statistical methods to test Fama-French factors on Bitcoin's excess returns.
result Fama-French factors have explanatory power on Bitcoin's risk and returns.
Bitcoin's attention is linked to Google Trends data, not general uncertainty.
problem Bitcoin's correlation with Google Trends data was previously misunderstood.
method Analyzed bidirectional relationships between Bitcoin returns and Google Trends attention over six days.
result Information flows from Bitcoin volatility to Google Trends attention, not the other way.
Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental, macroeconomic, financial, speculative and technical determinants as well as the 2016 event…
Attempts to accurately measure the monetary velocity or related properties of bitcoin used in transactions have often attempted to either directly apply definitions from traditional macroeconomic theory or to use specialized metrics relative to the properties of the Blockchain like bitcoin days destroyed. In this paper…
Recent research on Bitcoin Transaction Networks reveals a growing, sparse, and core-periphery structure.
problem Understanding the evolution of Bitcoin's network structure and user behavior.
method Review of recent results on Bitcoin Transaction Networks, including Address Network, User Network, and Lightning Network.
result Bitcoin Transaction Networks exhibit a core-periphery structure, indicating increasing centralization.