A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.
problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.
Peer effects, in which the behavior of an individual is affected by the behavior of their peers, are posited by multiple theories in the social sciences. Other processes can also produce behaviors that are correlated in networks and groups, thereby generating debate about the credibility of observational (i.e. nonexper…
Recent work in fairness in machine learning has proposed adjusting for fairness by equalizing accuracy metrics across groups and has also studied how datasets affected by historical prejudices may lead to unfair decision policies. We connect these lines of work and study the residual unfairness that arises when a fairn…
With the development of high-throughput technologies, principal component analysis (PCA) in the high-dimensional regime is of great interest. Most of the existing theoretical and methodological results for high-dimensional PCA are based on the spiked population model in which all the population eigenvalues are equal ex…
When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…
This paper studies schemes to de-bias the Lasso in a linear model y=Xβ+ε where the goal is to construct confidence intervals for a0Tβ in a direction a0, where X has iid N(0,Σ) rows. We show that previously analyzed propositions to de-bias the Lasso require a modification in order to enjoy efficiency in a f…
A new algorithm CAP learns optimal policies from observational data with confounding bias and missing observations.
problem Offline contextual bandit with confounding bias and missing observations.
method CAP policy learning, forming reward function as solution of integral equation system, building confidence set, and greedily taking action with pessimism.
result Developed an upper bound to the suboptimality of CAP for the offline contextual bandit problem.
problem Inconsistent performance of RLDA in high-dimensional scenarios.
method Developed a non-asymptotic approximation of misclassification rate, derived new theoretical results on eigenvectors, and proposed SEDA algorithm.
result SEDA achieves higher classification accuracy and dimensionality reduction compared to existing LDA methods.
The paper addresses causal estimation for text data with apparent overlap violations.
problem Estimating causal effects from text data with unknown confounders and apparent overlap.
method Uses supervised representation learning to create a representation that preserves confounding information while eliminating predictive information, satisfying overlap assumptions.
result Shows how to obtain robust causal estimation in the presence of apparent overlap violations.
We discovered secular trend bias in a drug effectiveness study for a recently approved drug. We compared treatment outcomes between patients who received the newly approved drug and patients exposed to the standard treatment. All patients diagnosed after the new drug's approval date were considered. We built a machine …
We prove the main rules of causal calculus (also called do-calculus) for i/o structural causal models (ioSCMs), a generalization of a recently proposed general class of non-/linear structural causal models that allow for cycles, latent confounders and arbitrary probability distributions. We also generalize adjustment c…
We consider large-scale studies in which it is of interest to test a very large number of hypotheses, and then to estimate the effect sizes corresponding to the rejected hypotheses. For instance, this setting arises in the analysis of gene expression or DNA sequencing data. However, naive estimates of the effect sizes …