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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Beta-Bernoulli process

The beta-Bernoulli process provides a Bayesian nonparametric prior for models involving collections of binary-valued features. A draw from the beta process yields an infinite collection of probabilities in the unit interval, and a draw from the Bernoulli process turns these into binary-valued features. Recent work has …

2011-06-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…

2011-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models provide elegant methods for discovering underlying latent features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. We exploit the fact that completely random measures, which commonly used models like the Dirichlet process and the beta-Bernoulli process can be expressed a…

2020-01-15abs ↗pdf ↗

While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current inference schemes for models involving the gamma process are restricted to MCMC-based …

2014-10-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Indian Buffet Process based models are an elegant way for discovering underlying features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. Inferring underlying features using Markov chain Monte Carlo either relies on an uncollapsed representation, which leads to poor mixing, or on a collapsed representation…

2017-03-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Super-resolution methods form high-resolution images from low-resolution images. In this paper, we develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model for super-resolution. Our method uses a beta-Bernoulli process to learn a set of recurring visual patterns, called dictionary elements, from the data. Because it is nonparametric…

2012-09-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Modeling correlated mutations in cancer for personalized treatment.

problem Identifying mutations for personalized cancer therapy in heterogeneous profiles.
method Proposed correlated zero-inflated negative binomial process with mixed beta-Bernoulli and variational inference.
result Identified biologically relevant correlations between somatic mutations.

We characterize the class of exchangeable feature allocations assigning probability Vn,kl=1kWmlUnmlV_{n,k}\prod_{l=1}^{k}W_{m_{l}}U_{n-m_{l}} to a feature allocation of nn individuals, displaying kk features with counts (m1,,mk)(m_{1},\ldots,m_{k}) for these features. Each element of this class is parametrized by a countable matrix VV

2016-07-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Multi-task learning (MTL) has achieved success over a wide range of problems, where the goal is to improve the performance of a primary task using a set of relevant auxiliary tasks. However, when the usefulness of the auxiliary tasks w.r.t. the primary task is not known a priori, the success of MTL models depends on th…

2019-04-08abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.

problem Statistical flaws and reliance on proxy metrics in A/B tests compromise their effectiveness.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating conversion probability and monetary value, decision-theoretic stopping rule.
result The framework ensures experiments conclude when no variant offers a significant profit improvement, conserving resources.

Proposes a flexible feature allocation model for sparse factor analysis.

problem Sparse data and rigid assumptions in traditional exploratory tools.
method Adaptive latent feature sharing with control over feature sparsity.
result Derives a novel adaptive Factor analysis (aFA) and aPPCA for flexible dimensionality reduction.

Motivated by the pressing need for efficient optimization in online recommender systems, we revisit the cascading bandit model proposed by Kveton et al. (2015). While Thompson sampling (TS) algorithms have been shown to be empirically superior to Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms for cascading bandits, theoretica…

2018-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.

problem Eliciting desired behavior from transformers without backpropagation.
method Posterior Prefix Tuning (PPT) uses predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) samples and importance sampling to optimize the latent posterior.
result PPT optimizes transformer behavior without backpropagation, achieving high utility across different utility functions.

This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…

2011-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.

problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.

The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.

problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.

Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.

problem Need for models with fat tails and computational tractability.
method Represent elliptical distributions as continuous mixtures of Gaussian distributions, derive closed-form expressions for marginal and conditional distributions.
result Elliptical processes offer advantages in robust regression compared to Gaussian processes.

We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…

2014-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficient methods for Lévy models using SINH-regular processes.

problem Efficient numerical methods for evaluating Lévy models.
method Defining SL-processes and sSL-processes, deriving properties of characteristic exponent, and showing all popular Lévy processes can be subordinated to Brownian motion.
result All crucial properties of characteristic exponent are consequences of a specific representation, and all popular Lévy processes are SL- or sSL-subordinated Brownian motion.

The aim of process discovery, originating from the area of process mining, is to discover a process model based on business process execution data. A majority of process discovery techniques relies on an event log as an input. An event log is a static source of historical data capturing the execution of a business proc…

2017-04-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Researchers study the geometric properties of a specific type of stable processes.

problem Understanding the information geometry of tempered stable processes.
method Derivation of α-divergence, Fisher information matrices, and α-connections.
result Obtained Fisher information matrices and α-connections for statistical manifolds.

This study bridges discrete and continuous state spaces using the Ehrenfest process and diffusion models.

problem Understanding the relationship between discrete and continuous state spaces in stochastic processes.
method Investigates time-continuous Markov jump processes on discrete state spaces and their correspondence to state-continuous diffusion processes.
result The time-reversal of the Ehrenfest process converges to the time-reversed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, bridging discrete and continuous state spaces.

The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…

2011-04-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Gaussian process priors are commonly used in aerospace design for performing Bayesian optimization. Nonetheless, Gaussian processes suffer two significant drawbacks: outliers are a priori assumed unlikely, and the posterior variance conditioned on observed data depends only on the locations of those data, not the assoc…

2018-01-18abs ↗pdf ↗

We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from cond…

2013-12-31abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.

problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.

Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.

problem Error probability in classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
method Asymptotic expressions for Bhattacharyya bound on misclassification error probabilities.
result Obtained asymptotic expressions for misclassification error probabilities.

Study shows convergence rates for BSDEs approximated by compound Poisson processes.

problem Analyzing convergence rates of BSDEs driven by Lévy processes.
method Approximating Lévy processes by compound Poisson processes and studying BSDEs.
result Optimal convergence rates derived for BSDEs in L2\mathbb L^2-norm and Wasserstein distance.

Non-Markovian point process shows power-law scaling, similar to nonlinear Markovian process.

problem Understanding the scaling behavior of non-Markovian point processes.
method Analyzed a confined fractional Brownian motion-driven point process and compared it to a nonlinear Markovian process.
result A nonlinear Markovian process can reproduce the power-law scaling behavior of a non-Markovian point process.

State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are linear transformations of the nonnegative orthant.

problem Characterizing state spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes.
method Explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.
result State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are given by explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.

Automated process discovery is a class of process mining methods that allow analysts to extract business process models from event logs. Traditional process discovery methods extract process models from a snapshot of an event log stored in its entirety. In some scenarios, however, events keep coming with a high arrival…

2018-04-08abs ↗pdf ↗