A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Machine learning improves beta forecasts, enhancing equity valuation and portfolio performance.
Study examines time-varying betas and their volatility in bank interest income and expense margins.
In this paper we extend the setting of the online prediction with expert advice to function-valued forecasts. At each step of the online game several experts predict a function, and the learner has to efficiently aggregate these functional forecasts into a single forecast. We adapt basic mixable (and exponentially conc…
Copulas model cross-product effects in intraday power markets.
This article analyzes the problem of estimating the time until an event occurs, also known as survival modeling. We observe through substantial experiments on large real-world datasets and use-cases that populations are largely heterogeneous. Sub-populations have different mean and variance in their survival rates requ…
The study provides statistical theory for WGANs in time series forecasting.
Paper addresses uncertainty in model generalization under regime shifts.
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is …
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation structure between the observation and state innovation vectors and we extend the…
Proposes a new factor to improve BAB strategies by recognizing bad-beta assets.
New framework forecasts ES using weighted quantiles.
New f-Betas for portfolio optimization using f-divergence risk measures.
The complete part of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD), above completeness magnitude mc, is well described by the Gutenberg-Richter law. The parameter mc however varies in space due to the seismic network configuration, yielding a convoluted FMD shape below max(mc). This paper investigates the shape…
The Cartier-Perrin theorem, which was published in 1995 and is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis, permits, for the first time perhaps, a clear-cut mathematical definition of the volatility of a financial asset. It yields as a byproduct a new understanding of the means of returns, of the beta coefficient…
A new Bayesian model improves forecasting for intermittent demand.
Proposes logistic-beta process for modeling dependent probabilities with beta marginals.
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
The beta-Bernoulli process provides a Bayesian nonparametric prior for models involving collections of binary-valued features. A draw from the beta process yields an infinite collection of probabilities in the unit interval, and a draw from the Bernoulli process turns these into binary-valued features. Recent work has …
Beta diffusion generates bounded data using multiplicative transitions.
We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying Poisson process is equal to that of the beta process. We use this underlying re…
In this paper, the geometric meaning of (alpha,beta)-norms is made clear. On this basis, we introduce a new class of Finsler metrics called general (alpha,beta)-metrics, which are defined by a Riemannian metric and an 1-form. These metrics not only generalize original (alpha,beta)-metrics naturally, but also include so…
Study beta function for convex billiard maps, linking spectral invariants.
Beta-SOD detects and corrects noisy object re-identification using cosine similarity and Beta mixtures.
We present a reactive beta model that includes the leverage effect to allow hedge fund managers to target a near-zero beta for market neutral strategies. For this purpose, we derive a metric of correlation with leverage effect to identify the relation between the market beta and volatility changes. An empirical test ba…
This is a short description of graphic lambda calculus, with special emphasis on a duality suggested by the two different appearances of knot diagrams, in lambda calculus and emergent algebra sectors of the graphic lambda calculus respectively. This duality leads to the introduction of the dual of the graphic beta move…
Bayesian Beta regression for proportions in high dimensions with theoretical guarantees.
NeuralBeta uses deep learning to estimate beta, outperforming traditional methods.
We describe the underlying probabilistic interpretation of alpha and beta divergences. We first show that beta divergences are inherently tied to Tweedie distributions, a particular type of exponential family, known as exponential dispersion models. Starting from the variance function of a Tweedie model, we outline how…
Study explores geometric structure and prior for beta-logistic distribution.
The paper proves optimizability implies inequalities for sampling.
Unified framework for scale-invariant representation learning using MAPCA.
This paper generalizes beta divergence beyond its classical form associated with power variance functions of Tweedie models. Generalized form is represented by a compact definite integral as a function of variance function of the exponential dispersion model. This compact integral form simplifies derivations of many pr…
The Brylinski beta function is extended for coaxial layers on submanifolds.
Smart beta, also known as strategic beta or factor investing, is the idea of selecting an investment portfolio in a simple rule-based manner that systematically captures market inefficiencies, thereby enhancing risk-adjusted returns above capitalization-weighted benchmarks. We explore the idea of applying a smart strat…
A beta function for double layers is defined and analyzed.
We derive and approximate the conjugate prior of Dirichlet and beta distributions.
Beta is a widely used quantity in investment analysis. We review the common interpretations that are applied to beta in finance and show that the standard method of estimation - least squares regression - is inconsistent with these interpretations. We present the case for an alternative beta estimator which is more app…
Forecast-to-fill strategy generates durable alpha in gold futures.
We consider a shrinking flow of smooth, closed, uniformly convex hypersurfaces in (n+1)-dimensional Euclidean space with speed fu^{alpha}{sigma}_n^{beta}, where u is the support function of the hypersurface, alpha, beta are two constants, and beta>0, sigma_n is the n-th symmetric polynomial of the principle curvature r…
A new beta-VAE based regression model accelerates oilfield optimization studies.
This paper studies the Fisher-Rao geometry on the parameter space of beta distributions. We derive the geodesic equations and the sectional curvature, and prove that it is negative. This leads to uniqueness for the Riemannian centroid in that space. We use this Riemannian structure to study canonical moments, an intrin…
Paper introduces a new text clustering model using Beta-Liouville priors.
Betas are possibly the most frequently applied tool to analyze how securities relate to the market. While in very widespread use, betas only express dynamics derived from second moment statistics. Financial returns data often deviate from normal assumptions in the sense that they have significant third and fourth order…
Magnitude of manifolds linked to Riesz energies and beta functions.
We construct a one-dimensional deformation retract of the unordered k-point configuration space of a star S. This retract suggests an explicit set of free generators Beta_k for the corresponding braid group of the star B_k and shows that the natural map from B_k-1 to B_k sends Beta_k-1 to Beta_k injectively.
New approach to Generalized Beta family using SDEs.
BS-VAE separates decoder variance and beta to improve VAE performance.