Study uses reinforcement learning to optimize portfolios under recursive utility.
problem Improving portfolio allocation using risk-sensitive objectives.
method Approximated certainty equivalent via Monte Carlo, trained actor-critic algorithms (PPO, A2C).
result Recursive-utility agent outperforms discounted baseline in Sharpe ratio, max drawdown, and cumulative return.
The paper studies risk-sensitive MDPs with recursive risk measures.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making in MDPs with unbounded costs.
method Recursive application of static risk measures, Bellman equation derivation, existence of optimal policies.
result Existence of Markovian optimal policies for infinite planning horizons, contractive model for stationary optimal policy.
FORE evaluates occupancy ratios without requiring Bellman completeness.
problem Offline reinforcement learning occupancy ratio estimation.
method Fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation (FORE) using adjoint Bellman recursion.
result FORE achieves convergence in KL without Bellman completeness.
Paper introduces v-CMC linking causality and utility.
problem Linking causality and utility for value theory.
method Developed a new causal independence principle (v-CMC) and proved its equivalence.
result Equivalence of local, global, and decomposition versions of v-CMC.
CEFOL uses deep learning for dynamic programming with recursive utility.
problem Challenges in solving dynamic programming problems with recursive utility.
method Introduces a separate neural network for certainty equivalent, uses first-order optimality conditions to learn value and policy functions.
result CEFOL achieves high accuracy in learning value and policy functions, matching VFI benchmarks.
Deep learning solves dynamic programming with recursive utility.
problem Challenges in solving high-dimensional discrete-time dynamic programming problems with recursive utility.
method Certainty Equivalent Learning (CEL) algorithm that learns certainty-equivalent value directly with neural networks.
result Accurate value and policy approximations in high-dimensional problems, comparable to VFI in some cases.
A method for calculating multi-portfolio time consistent multivariate risk measures in discrete time is presented. Market models for d assets with transaction costs or illiquidity and possible trading constraints are considered on a finite probability space. The set of capital requirements at each time and state is c…
Choosing a portfolio of risky assets over time that maximizes the expected return at the same time as it minimizes portfolio risk is a classical problem in Mathematical Finance and is referred to as the dynamic Markowitz problem (when the risk is measured by variance) or more generally, the dynamic mean-risk problem. I…
We study an optimal investment/consumption problem in a model capturing market and credit risk dependencies. Stochastic factors drive both the default intensity and the volatility of the stocks in the portfolio. We use the martingale approach and analyze the recursive system of nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equatio…
Deep nets solve MDPs without high dimensions.
problem Solving Bellman equations for MDPs in high dimensions.
method Deep neural networks with ReLU activation approximating payoff and transition functions.
result Deep nets can approximate Q-functions in polynomially bounded parameters. We introduce a dynamic optimization framework to analyze optimal portfolio allocations within an information driven contagious distress model. The investor allocates his wealth across several stocks whose growth rates and distress intensities are driven by a hidden Markov chain, and also influenced by the distress stat…
Study optimal consumption and investment strategies with leverage constraints using Epstein-Zin utility.
problem Optimal portfolio choice under leverage constraints and Epstein-Zin utility.
method Established viscosity solution to HJB equation, demonstrated smoothness, characterized optimal strategies, derived explicit solutions.
result Explicit solutions for optimal consumption and investment strategies under leverage constraints.
Second-order estimator improves continuous-time policy evaluation.
problem Estimating value surfaces from discrete data with time-inhomogeneous dynamics.
method Moment-matching coefficients for high-order generator regression.
result Second-order estimator consistently outperforms Bellman baseline.
The paper tackles data-driven optimal control of unknown nonlinear systems using RKHS.
problem Unknown nonlinear dynamics and stage cost functions.
method Embed state densities into RKHS, learn Markov operators, solve Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman recursions.
result Solves a wide range of nonlinear control problems, including depth regulation.
Evaluating AI investment strategies
problem Auditing a black-box algorithmic decision-maker
method Exact decomposition of cumulative regret
result Cumulative regret equals sum of per-period covariances
In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving an uncertain stochastic Markovian control problem in discrete time. We call the proposed methodology the adaptive robust control. We demonstrate that the uncertain control problem under consideration can be solved in terms of associated adaptive robust Bellman equa…
New method learns policies from offline data using operator models.
problem Limited understanding of approximation errors in offline reinforcement learning.
method Linking reinforcement learning to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, proposing operator-theoretic algorithm.
result Global convergence of the value function and finite-sample guarantees derived.
The paper analyzes the convergence rates of Q-learning with entropy regularization and linear function approximation.
problem Analyzing the convergence rates of Q-learning with entropy regularization and linear function approximation.
method The paper derives rates of convergence using the high-dimensional central limit theorem, linearization of the soft Bellman recursion, and Gaussian approximation for the leading martingale term.
result The algorithm's last iterate satisfies high-order moment bounds, with a Gaussian approximation bound of order n−1/4. This paper analyzes how periodic and soft target updates stabilize linear Q-learning.
problem Theoretical explanation of stabilization mechanisms for linear Q-learning.
method Exact analysis using switched linear system dynamics and the joint spectral radius.
result Periodic and soft target updates can guarantee convergence to the exact projected Q-Bellman solution under specific conditions.
We consider the problem of the optimal trading strategy in the presence of linear costs, and with a strict cap on the allowed position in the market. Using Bellman's backward recursion method, we show that the optimal strategy is to switch between the maximum allowed long position and the maximum allowed short position…
The Bellman error is a poor proxy for value function accuracy, even with all state-action pairs.
problem The Bellman error is a poor proxy for the accuracy of the value function.
method Study of the Bellman equation as a surrogate objective for value prediction accuracy.
result The magnitude of the Bellman error is only weakly related to the distance to the true value function, even with all state-action pairs.
Paper tackles robust decision-making from multiple sites with shared structure.
problem Learning robust sequential decisions from heterogeneous multi-site datasets.
method Group-Robust MDPs with d-rectangular uncertainty sets, feature-wise worst-case aggregation, and cluster-level pooling.
result Proves suboptimality bound for robust planning policy under robust partial coverage assumption.
New method stabilizes FQE by reweighting Bellman targets.
problem Stability guarantees for FQE often rely on Bellman completeness, which can fail with function approximation.
method Proposes stationary-weighted FQE, reweighting Bellman targets by stationary target-to-behavior density ratio.
result Proves finite-sample linear convergence to stationary projected Bellman fixed point without Bellman completeness.
A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.
problem Difficulty in long-horizon value prediction in offline reinforcement learning.
method Bellman calibration, a weak reliability criterion, and Iterated Bellman Calibration.
result Finite-sample guarantees show that Bellman calibration error is controlled at nonparametric rates.
Improved risk-sensitive RL with exponential Bellman equation and better regret bounds.
problem Exponential gap between upper and lower bounds in risk-sensitive RL.
method Identified and addressed deficiencies in existing algorithms and analysis; developed novel analysis and exploration mechanism.
result Improved regret upper bounds over existing ones.
New Bellman error estimator improves offline model selection performance.
problem Selecting the best policy from logged data using mean squared Bellman error.
method Developed a more accurate estimator of MSBE and analyzed conditions for successful OMS.
result New estimator achieves impressive offline model selection performance on diverse tasks.
The objective is to study an on-line Hidden Markov model (HMM) estimation-based Q-learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) on finite state and action sets. When the full state observation is available, Q-learning finds the optimal action-value function given the current action (Q func…
The paper explores solutions to the distributional Bellman equation in reinforcement learning.
problem Distributional reinforcement learning considers complete return distributions, not just expected returns.
method Study existence and uniqueness of solutions to general distributional Bellman equations, linking them to multivariate affine equations.
result Any solution to a distributional Bellman equation can be derived from a multivariate affine distributional equation.
The paper studies optimal investment using acceptability indices to maximize portfolio performance.
problem Optimal investment problem using coherent acceptability indices.
method Numerical algorithm approximating the original problem, dynamic coherent risk measures, set-valued Bellman's principle.
result Acceptability maximization problem reduces to a one-period problem under certain conditions.
In this paper, we take up the analysis of a principal/agent model with moral hazard introduced in [17], with optimal contracting between competitive investors and an impatient bank monitoring a pool of long-term loans subject to Markovian contagion. We provide here a comprehensive mathematical formulation of the model …
Paper develops a novel approach for optimal control using kernel methods.
problem Optimal control of nonlinear stochastic systems.
method Infinitesimal generator approach in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result Data-driven solution to optimal control problems.
A new ML algorithm solves complex economic control problems.
problem Solving high-dimensional, finite-horizon stochastic control problems in economics.
method Deep neural network representation of optimal policy functions with three key features.
result Efficiently solves various economic control problems including recursive utility and growth models.
We obtain the classical Hanner inequalities by the Bellman function method. These inequalities give sharp estimates for the moduli of convexity of Lebesgue spaces. Easy ideas from differential geometry help us to find the Bellman function using neither "magic guesses" nor calculations.
Paper studies offline RL with linear approx, focusing on inherent Bellman error.
problem Offline RL with linear approx, focusing on inherent Bellman error.
method Algorithm that succeeds under single-policy coverage condition, leveraging inherent Bellman error.
result Algorithm yields first known guarantee under single-policy coverage, even for linear Bellman completeness.
Richard Bellman's Principle of Optimality, formulated in 1957, is the heart of dynamic programming, the mathematical discipline which studies the optimal solution of multi-period decision problems. In this paper, we look at the main trading principles of Jesse Livermore, the legendary stock operator whose method was pu…
Polynomial-time RL algorithm for constant actions under linear Bellman completeness.
problem Efficient online reinforcement learning with few actions.
method Polynomial-time algorithm based on linear function approximation.
result First computationally efficient algorithm for RL with constant actions under linear Bellman completeness.
The impact of softmax on the value function itself in reinforcement learning (RL) is often viewed as problematic because it leads to sub-optimal value (or Q) functions and interferes with the contraction properties of the Bellman operator. Surprisingly, despite these concerns, and independent of its effect on explorati…
Develops a new model for RLHF accounting for partially observed states and intermediate feedback.
problem Lack of models for partially observed states and intermediate feedback in RLHF.
method PORRL model with cardinal and dueling feedback methods.
result Demonstrates improved learning and alignment with new model-based and model-free methods.
We study utility maximization for power utility random fields with and without intermediate consumption in a general semimartingale model with closed portfolio constraints. We show that any optimal strategy leads to a solution of the corresponding Bellman equation. The optimal strategies are described pointwise in term…
BCRL learns a Bellman complete representation for offline RL policy evaluation.
problem Learning a Q-function efficiently from offline data.
method BCRL learns a linear Bellman complete representation directly from data, enabling efficient OPE.
result BCRL achieves competitive OPE error and outperforms FQE in certain scenarios.
One-step Bellman alignment improves online RL by reducing task mismatch.
problem Online RL struggles with task similarity defined by rewards or transitions.
method One-step Bellman alignment and re-weighted targeting (RWT) to correct task mismatch.
result Regret bounds show task shift complexity, not target MDP, affects performance.
The paper introduces Bellman-consistent pessimism to improve offline reinforcement learning without overly pessimistic bias.
problem Offline reinforcement learning's challenge of discovering good policies without exhaustive exploration.
method Introduces Bellman-consistent pessimism for function approximation, improving sample complexity and adaptability.
result Improves sample complexity by O(d) in the action space finite case, and automatically adapts to bias-variance tradeoff. This paper studies the optimal dividend for a multi-line insurance group, in which each subsidiary runs a product line and is exposed to some external credit risk. The default contagion is considered such that one default event may increase the default probabilities of all surviving subsidiaries. The total dividend pro…
We propose a new objective function for finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes that better captures Bellman's principle of optimality, and provide an expression for the gradient of the objective.
Recursive neural networks have widely been used by researchers to handle applications with recursively or hierarchically structured data. However, embedded control flow deep learning frameworks such as TensorFlow, Theano, Caffe2, and MXNet fail to efficiently represent and execute such neural networks, due to lack of s…
New method tackles model uncertainty in stochastic control using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Model uncertainty in stochastic control problems.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach with Dirichlet process for unknown distributions, online learning, and Gaussian process surrogates.
result Demonstrates financial advantages of nonparametric Bayesian over parametric methods.
Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.
problem Optimizing investment strategies over multiple periods with risk and return considerations.
method Developed a Bellman principle for discrete time multi-period mean-variance models, leading to dynamic optimal strategies and efficient frontiers.
result Dynamic optimal strategies can achieve higher returns with lower risk compared to the 1/n strategy.
Model quantifies uncertainty's impact on European option prices.
problem Uncertainty in market volatility risk affects option pricing.
method Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman framework and finite element method.
result Dependence of Delta on uncertainty is nonlinear and varied.