By elaborating on the notion of linear belief functions (Dempster 1990; Liu 1996), we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear belief functions. We show how to use basic matrices to represent market information and financial knowledge, including complete ignorance, stat…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Belief Function”
Recurrent networks learn beliefs from history in partially observable environments.
problem Learning optimal policies in partially observable environments.
method Trained recurrent neural networks to approximate value functions, measuring mutual information between hidden states and beliefs.
result Recurrent networks' hidden states correlate with beliefs of relevant state variables, improving expected return.
A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.
problem Eliciting high-dimensional probability distributions from noisy judgments.
method Normalizing flows based on preferential questions with a novel functional prior.
result The method allows for the inference of arbitrarily flexible densities from preferential judgments.
ColaBO accelerates optimization with user beliefs.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with limited prior knowledge.
method General Bayesian framework for incorporating user beliefs.
result Significant optimization acceleration with accurate prior information.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
problem Risk sharing among agents with different beliefs.
method Use Lambda Value-at-Risk as preference, analyze under heterogeneous beliefs.
result Explicit formulas for risk sharing under various belief scenarios.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
problem Analyzing belief evolution in social networks.
method Proposes a new theoretical framework using Markov chain theory for horizontal and vertical transmission.
result Homophily-based networks do not converge to a single set of beliefs.
Paper introduces a new framework to improve sample efficiency in POMDPs learning.
problem Challenges in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs, especially with hidden states.
method Exploits the metric structure of belief space to relax coverage assumptions.
result Unified analysis technique yields tighter error bounds and sample efficiency improvements.
πBO augments BO with user beliefs for better hyperparameter optimization.
problem BO ignores user beliefs, reducing its appeal to practitioners.
method Proposes BO, an acquisition function that incorporates user-provided prior beliefs.
result BO outperforms competing approaches and deep learning tasks.
This paper simplifies complex game dynamics by using a recursive representation.
problem Difficulties in finite-player dynamic games with private information.
method Provides a recursive representation and noise-state model.
result Equilibrium becomes a deterministic fixed point in impulse-response functions.
Introduces epistemic deep learning for better uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Random-set convolutional neural networks with belief function-based loss functions.
result Epistemic approach produces better performance in uncertainty estimation.
Study shows price bubbles can exist even with heterogeneous beliefs.
problem Equilibrium price formation in markets with different belief groups.
method Analyzes continuous time asset trading with heterogeneous investors and mean reverting asset.
result Price bubbles may not form even with heterogeneous beliefs, contrary to initial expectations.
We study the stochastic block model with two communities where vertices contain side information in the form of a vertex label. These vertex labels may have arbitrary label distributions, depending on the community memberships. We analyze a linearized version of the popular belief propagation algorithm. We show that th…
This paper introduces a new probabilistic model for online learning which dynamically incorporates information from stochastic gradients of an arbitrary loss function. Similar to probabilistic filtering, the model maintains a Gaussian belief over the optimal weight parameters. Unlike traditional Bayesian updates, the m…
It is known that fixed points of loopy belief propagation (BP) correspond to stationary points of the Bethe variational problem, where we minimize the Bethe free energy subject to normalization and marginalization constraints. Unfortunately, this does not entirely explain BP because BP is a dual rather than primal algo…
The study shows how probability weighting can lead to betting in a risk-averse economy.
problem Understanding how probability weighting affects economic behavior and risk aversion.
method Examining a von Neumann-Morgenstern economy with an RDU agent to model probability weighting effects.
result Probability weighting can lead to endogenous betting in an economy with common beliefs.
Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.
problem Quantifying the risk of agentic AI systems due to uncertain beliefs and actions.
method Representing the system as a partially observed Markov decision process with latent states, Bayesian belief updates, control-dependent losses, and tail-risk functionals.
result Develops a rigorous framework for separating uncertainty quantification from risk measurement.
Unsupervised representation learning has succeeded with excellent results in many applications. It is an especially powerful tool to learn a good representation of environments with partial or noisy observations. In partially observable domains it is important for the representation to encode a belief state, a sufficie…
Factor graphs are important models for succinctly representing probability distributions in machine learning, coding theory, and statistical physics. Several computational problems, such as computing marginals and partition functions, arise naturally when working with factor graphs. Belief propagation is a widely deplo…
New method for finding function correspondences in binary programs.
problem Finding a correspondence between functions of two binary programs.
method Formulated as a network alignment problem and solved using belief propagation.
result QBinDiff prototype outperforms state-of-the-art diffing tools.
Two EP frameworks ensure integrable beliefs in Bayesian estimation problems.
problem Non-integrable beliefs in EP can lead to infeasible solutions.
method Proposes two EP frameworks to keep messages non-integrable.
result Ensures integrable beliefs in EP, even with non-integrable messages.
RS-NN predicts belief functions for classification, improving accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
problem Improving confidence in machine learning predictions for safety-critical applications.
method Random-Set Neural Network (RS-NN) using random set mathematics.
result RS-NN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and OoD detection.
Generalized belief propagation converges to optimal solutions on graphs with motifs.
problem Understanding belief propagation on loopy graphs.
method Study of generalized belief propagation on graphs with motifs.
result Generalized belief propagation converges to the global optimum of the Bethe free energy.
In the present paper a model of a market consisting of real and financial interacting sectors is studied. Agents populating the stock market are assumed to be not able to observe the true underlying fundamental, and their beliefs are biased by either optimism or pessimism. Depending on the relevance they give to belief…
Study on Kyle-Back model with risk aversion and non-Gaussian beliefs.
problem Existence of equilibrium in Kyle's insider trading model.
method Forward-backward system coupled via optimal transport constraint, stochastic representation, well-posedness of solutions.
result Existence and properties of equilibrium for small risk aversion parameter.
Belief propagation recovers backpropagation results.
problem Connection between backpropagation and belief propagation poorly understood.
method Converted backpropagation input to belief propagation input and showed results.
result Backpropagation is a special case of belief propagation.
This paper examines a heterogeneous beliefs model in which there is a process that is only partially observed by the agents. The economy contains a risky asset producing dividends continuously in time. The dividends are observed by the agents. The dividends are assumed to be a known function of some other unobserved pr…
We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been modeled using recurrent neural networks and probabilistic latent variable models, …
We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief abo…
In this paper, we address the inverse problem, or the statistical machine learning problem, in Markov random fields with a non-parametric pair-wise energy function with continuous variables. The inverse problem is formulated by maximum likelihood estimation. The exact treatment of maximum likelihood estimation is intra…
Improved error correction using neural networks and belief propagation.
problem Inference in factor graphs with loops or poor approximations.
method Hybrid model combining FG-GNN and belief propagation.
result Hybrid model outperforms belief propagation in error correction tasks.
U-Nets use belief propagation for efficient image denoising and classification.
problem Efficiently denoise and classify images using generative hierarchical models.
method Interpreted U-Nets as implementing belief propagation in tree-structured models.
result U-Nets can efficiently approximate denoising functions with sample complexity bounds.
A new concept of confidence in learning is defined and analyzed.
problem Understanding and quantifying trust in learning processes.
method Formal axioms, continuum measures, vector fields, loss functions.
result Confidence can be represented and optimized in learning.
NBF combines deep learning with classical filtering for better belief tracking.
problem Maintaining distributions over hidden states in partially observable systems.
method Trains neural networks to map beliefs to fixed-length vectors, updating them with incoming observations and dynamics.
result NBF efficiently tracks shifting, multimodal beliefs without particle impoverishment.
This thesis investigates belief propagation's performance in graphical models with loops.
problem Belief propagation's performance and convergence guarantees in models with loops are uncertain.
method Investigates how model parameters affect belief propagation's performance, convergence, and approximation quality.
result Model parameters influence the number of fixed points, convergence properties, and approximation quality of belief propagation.
New algorithm for efficient inference over tree-structured graphs.
problem Inference over probabilistic graphical models with aggregate data.
method Optimal transport theory, Sinkhorn/iterative scaling algorithm, belief propagation.
result Global convergence and polynomial computational complexity.
FORBES learns flexible belief states for POMDPs using normalizing flows.
problem Accurately modeling belief states in POMDPs for high-dimensional, continuous spaces.
method Integrates normalizing flows into variational inference for continuous belief state learning.
result FORBES learns flexible belief states that enable multi-modal predictions and high-quality reconstructions.
This work explores a social learning problem with agents having nonidentical noise variances and mismatched beliefs. We consider an -agent binary hypothesis test in which each agent sequentially makes a decision based not only on a private observation, but also on preceding agents' decisions. In addition, the agents…
PBN combines generative and discriminative capabilities in a neural network.
problem Combining generative and discriminative capabilities in neural networks.
method Convolutional PBN, sharing FF-NN embodiment, combining generative and discriminative qualities.
result PBN shows excellent qualities from either generative or discriminative viewpoint.
Belief Propagation algorithms are instruments used broadly to solve graphical model optimization and statistical inference problems. In the general case of a loopy Graphical Model, Belief Propagation is a heuristic which is quite successful in practice, even though its empirical success, typically, lacks theoretical gu…
A maximum entropy model of bounded rational decision-making with prior beliefs and market feedbackcs.IT
Model captures decision-making under bounded rationality with prior beliefs and market feedback.
problem Bounded rationality in decision-making with limited processing abilities.
method Maximum entropy principle applied to Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium framework.
result Prior beliefs influence decision-making, altering the outcome of market feedback.
Gaussian Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm is one of the most important distributed algorithms in signal processing and statistical learning involving Markov networks. It is well known that the algorithm correctly computes marginal density functions from a high dimensional joint density function over a Markov network i…
We propose a projected gradient dynamical system as a model for a bargaining scheme for an asset for which the two interested agents have personal valuations which do not initially coincide. The personal valuations are formed using subjective beliefs concerning the future states of the world and the reservation prices …
This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.
problem Dynamic reinsurance design with heterogeneous beliefs under mean-variance framework.
method Modeling surplus process, applying partitioned domain optimization, solving HJB system.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts with belief heterogeneity are more complex than standard contracts.
Deep belief networks are a powerful way to model complex probability distributions. However, learning the structure of a belief network, particularly one with hidden units, is difficult. The Indian buffet process has been used as a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the directed structure of a belief network with a single…
New framework models epistemic uncertainty in GNNs using random sets.
problem Uncertainty in graph neural network predictions.
method Introduces a belief function (random set) approach to model epistemic uncertainty in GNNs.
result Demonstrates superior uncertainty quantification on various graph datasets.
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
The paper outlines future work in random sets theory.
problem Developing a theory of statistical reasoning with random sets.
method Generalizing logistic regression, probability laws, and geometric uncertainty.
result A new geometric approach to uncertainty with general random sets.
New algorithm reduces communication in distributed learning by sharing compressed beliefs.
problem Efficiently learning from private data in a distributed setting with large hypothesis sets.
method Proposes a belief update rule for distributed cooperative learning with compressed (sparse or quantized) beliefs.
result Beliefs converge almost surely to optimal hypotheses with a linear concentration rate.