A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the co…
We propose Turing Learning, a novel system identification method for inferring the behavior of natural or artificial systems. Turing Learning simultaneously optimizes two populations of computer programs, one representing models of the behavior of the system under investigation, and the other representing classifiers. …
Transformers infer tasks from context via two modes, geometrically shaped task vectors explain their behavior.
Inferring intent from observed behavior has been studied extensively within the frameworks of Bayesian inverse planning and inverse reinforcement learning. These methods infer a goal or reward function that best explains the actions of the observed agent, typically a human demonstrator. Another agent can use this infer…
The roundworm C. elegans exhibits robust escape behavior in response to rapidly rising temperature. The behavior lasts for a few seconds, shows history dependence, involves both sensory and motor systems, and is too complicated to model mechanistically using currently available knowledge. Instead we model the process p…
We present a dual-view mixture model to cluster users based on their features and latent behavioral functions. Every component of the mixture model represents a probability density over a feature view for observed user attributes and a behavior view for latent behavioral functions that are indirectly observed through u…
Bayesian neural networks ignore data in infinite units limit.
While most approaches to the problem of Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) focus on estimating a reward function that best explains an expert agent's policy or demonstrated behavior on a control task, it is often the case that such behavior is more succinctly represented by a simple reward combined with a set of hard…
This paper introduces a new approach to active inference using constrained Bethe Free Energy.
New method for valid and exact statistical inference of multi-dimensional change-points.
The ability to inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior is key to developing personalized human-interacting machine learning systems. Approaches to infer such traits range from surveys to manually-constructed experiments and games. However, these traditional games are limited because they are typically…
Neural network approximates Bayesian decision-making parameters.
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions defined by a subset of these behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…
We provide a rigorous definition of the visual cause of a behavior that is broadly applicable to the visually driven behavior in humans, animals, neurons, robots and other perceiving systems. Our framework generalizes standard accounts of causal learning to settings in which the causal variables need to be constructed …
New method infers human sensorimotor costs from behavior.
FOCAL tackles offline meta-reinforcement learning with efficient task inference and behavior regularization.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
The paper connects neural network ensembles to Bayesian inference using variational methods.
Several methods exist to infer causal networks from massive volumes of observational data. However, almost all existing methods require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause and effect relationships. In contrast, memory-less transition networks or Markov Chain data, which refers to one-step transit…
A new framework for adaptive behavior using reusable value profiles.
CAFL breaks feedback loops in recommender systems using causal inference.
FlowVAT improves variational inference for multi-modal distributions.
Models for recommender systems use latent factors to explain the preferences and behaviors of users with respect to a set of items (e.g., movies, books, academic papers). Typically, the latent factors are assumed to be static and, given these factors, the observed preferences and behaviors of users are assumed to be ge…
An important problem for HCI researchers is to estimate the parameter values of a cognitive model from behavioral data. This is a difficult problem, because of the substantial complexity and variety in human behavioral strategies. We report an investigation into a new approach using approximate Bayesian computation (AB…
Inferring a person's goal from their behavior is an important problem in applications of AI (e.g. automated assistants, recommender systems). The workhorse model for this task is the rational actor model - this amounts to assuming that people have stable reward functions, discount the future exponentially, and construc…
Peer effects, in which the behavior of an individual is affected by the behavior of their peers, are posited by multiple theories in the social sciences. Other processes can also produce behaviors that are correlated in networks and groups, thereby generating debate about the credibility of observational (i.e. nonexper…
Econometric framework integrates heavy-tailed distributions with behavioral probability weighting for better asset pricing.
We propose a novel approach to train a multi-modal policy from mixed demonstrations without their behavior labels. We develop a method to discover the latent factors of variation in the demonstrations. Specifically, our method is based on the variational autoencoder with a categorical latent variable. The encoder infer…
A new algebra for probabilistic programming improves tail behavior accuracy.
The paper examines how updates to probabilistic models influence behavior based on evidence.
To investigate the detection of students' behavioral engagement (On-Task vs. Off-Task), we propose a two-phase approach in this study. In Phase 1, contextual logs (URLs) are utilized to assess active usage of the content platform. If there is active use, the appearance information is utilized in Phase 2 to infer behavi…
Studies on massive open online courses (MOOCs) users discuss the existence of typical profiles and their impact on the learning process of the students. However defining the typical behaviors as well as classifying the users accordingly is a difficult task. In this paper we suggest two methods to model MOOC users behav…
Derives time-averaged active inference from control principles.
AIF reformulated as convex MDP for adaptive behavior.
Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.
We present a model for random simple graphs with a degree distribution that obeys a power law (i.e., is heavy-tailed). To attain this behavior, the edge probabilities in the graph are constructed from Bertoin-Fujita-Roynette-Yor (BFRY) random variables, which have been recently utilized in Bayesian statistics for the c…
Robots need models of human behavior for both inferring human goals and preferences, and predicting what people will do. A common model is the Boltzmann noisily-rational decision model, which assumes people approximately optimize a reward function and choose trajectories in proportion to their exponentiated reward. Whi…
It has been widely recognized that adversarial examples can be easily crafted to fool deep networks, which mainly root from the locally non-linear behavior nearby input examples. Applying mixup in training provides an effective mechanism to improve generalization performance and model robustness against adversarial per…
A new model captures car-following and lane-changing behaviors in traffic.
Paper proposes variational inference for piecewise-linear systems.
We consider problems in which a system receives external \emph{perturbations} from time to time. For instance, the system can be a train network in which particular lines are repeatedly disrupted without warning, having an effect on passenger behavior. The goal is to predict changes in the behavior of the system at par…
New algorithm speeds up IRT model fitting for large datasets.
ELS framework improves safety alignment by dynamically steering LLMs towards helpful responses.
Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate infe…
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
The paper develops a scalable method to infer GRNs from sparse data.
We consider learning, from strictly behavioral data, the structure and parameters of linear influence games (LIGs), a class of parametric graphical games introduced by Irfan and Ortiz (2014). LIGs facilitate causal strategic inference (CSI): Making inferences from causal interventions on stable behavior in strategic se…