Study reveals LLM personality patterns but lacks behavioral consistency.
problem Understanding and validating personality traits in LLMs.
method Characterized LLM personality across three dimensions: training dynamics, self-report validity, and intervention effects.
result Self-reported traits do not reliably predict behavior, and instructional alignment affects trait expression but not behavior.
Study examines if LLMs' trading styles match real market behavior.
problem Lack of behavioral consistency in LLMs' trading strategies.
method Year-long simulations with LLMs, operationalizing behavioral finance drivers, and comparing with financial theory.
result LLMs' strategy switching is only partially consistent with behavioral finance theories.
The support vector machine (SVM) is a powerful and widely used classification algorithm. This paper uses the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions to provide rigorous mathematical proof for new insights into the behavior of SVM. These insights provide perhaps unexpected relationships between SVM and two other linear classifier…
Valid certifies LLMs' domain adherence, bounding out-of-domain behavior.
problem Adversarial susceptibility of LLMs to generate out-of-domain outputs.
method VALID approach providing adversarial bounds as a certificate.
result Validates LLMs' domain adherence with meaningful certificates.
Machine learning detects survey validity from user behavior.
problem Detecting valid responses in web surveys.
method Uses mouse activity and machine learning models (LSTM, HMM).
result Predicts survey validity without analyzing specific answers.
New model solves equity premium puzzle.
problem Equity premium puzzle regarding risk behavior of investors.
method Developed a new tool called the sufficiency factor to analyze risk behavior of investors.
result Validated the new model with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.033526.
A new framework optimizes fMRI and behavioral data for better understanding of Autism.
problem Linking complex fMRI data to behavioral measures is challenging.
method Coupled manifold optimization framework projecting fMRI onto a shared manifold and mapping to behavioral measures.
result Framework outperforms traditional methods in predicting clinical severity of Autism.
Decodes neural activity to assess latent states in real-world driving tasks.
problem Understanding latent states during complex tasks in natural settings.
method Domain-generalized models trained on controlled lab paradigms applied to ecologically valid driving tasks.
result Changes in neural activity correlate with changes in behavior and task performance.
Study on manifolds with kinks and Gaussian kernel behavior.
problem Understanding the asymptotic behavior of graph Laplacian on manifolds with singularities.
method Introduced manifolds with kinks, derived asymptotic behavior of Graph Laplacian with Gaussian kernel, and validated results numerically.
result Asymptotic behavior of the Graph Laplacian is determined by the inward sector of the tangent space.
Objective: To evaluate unsupervised clustering methods for identifying individual-level behavioral-clinical phenotypes that relate personal biomarkers and behavioral traits in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) self-monitoring data. Materials and Methods: We used hierarchical clustering (HC) to identify groups of meals with simila…
Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.
problem Market relationships shift across different regimes, affecting investor behavior.
method Combining Kalman filtering, Markov-switching, and asymmetric response estimation.
result Foreign investors' predictive power increases during crises, while individual investors react more strongly to positive shocks.
New method for valid and exact statistical inference of multi-dimensional change-points.
problem Statistical inference of change-points in multi-dimensional sequences.
method Proposes a method to guarantee the statistical reliability of both location and components of detected changes.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in genomic abnormality identification and human behavior analysis.
Validation is one of the most important aspects of clustering, but most approaches have been batch methods. Recently, interest has grown in providing incremental alternatives. This paper extends the incremental cluster validity index (iCVI) family to include incremental versions of Calinski-Harabasz (iCH), I index and …
Paper improves PAC-Bayes bounds for various loss types.
problem Improving PAC-Bayes bounds for different types of losses.
method Introducing new high-probability PAC-Bayes bounds for bounded and general tail behaviors losses, and extending to anytime-valid bounds.
result New fast-rate and mixed-rate bounds for losses with bounded ranges, and parameter-free bounds for losses with general tail behaviors.
Wide networks with polynomial activations have proven asymptotic behavior.
problem Understanding the behavior of neural networks in the large width limit.
method Proving a conjecture for deep networks with polynomial activation functions.
result Tight bounds on the behavior of wide networks during stochastic gradient descent and derivation of their finite-width dynamics.
PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.
problem Eliciting desired behavior from transformers without backpropagation.
method Posterior Prefix Tuning (PPT) uses predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) samples and importance sampling to optimize the latent posterior.
result PPT optimizes transformer behavior without backpropagation, achieving high utility across different utility functions.
Framework mitigates risk non-monotonicity in high-dimensional predictions.
problem Risk non-monotonicity in high-dimensional predictions.
method Model-agnostic framework using cross-validation and data-driven methodologies (zero- and one-step).
result Modified prediction procedures achieve monotonic asymptotic risk behavior.
Reshuffling splits improves hyperparameter optimization's generalization performance.
problem Improving peak performance of machine learning models through better hyperparameter optimization.
method Reshuffling splits for every hyperparameter configuration improves generalization performance.
result Reshuffling leads to better generalization performance compared to fixed splits.
The ability to inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior is key to developing personalized human-interacting machine learning systems. Approaches to infer such traits range from surveys to manually-constructed experiments and games. However, these traditional games are limited because they are typically…
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
problem Reducing household bankruptcy risk through effective financial planning.
method Mathematical modeling, game theory, behavioral finance, and technological analysis.
result The 1/3 Financial Rule emerges as a robust solution for supporting household financial stability.
Recourse explanations can become invalid if collective actions change statistical data.
problem Recourse explanations may become invalid due to collective behavior changing data statistics.
method Formal characterization of conditions under which recourse explanations remain valid under performativity.
result Recourse actions may become invalid if they are influenced by or intervene on non-causal variables.
Empirical evidence supports new financial market definitions.
problem Investor risk attitudes in financial markets.
method Developed a new method to analyze risk attitudes.
result Risk-averse behavior in equity investors, risk-loving behavior in risk-free asset investors.
Alternative app data improves credit scoring for underserved borrowers.
problem Improving credit scoring for low-wealth and young individuals.
method Use of alternative data from app-based marketplaces, validated with TreeSHAP method.
result Alternative data sources predict financial behavior better than traditional bureau data.
Planning methods can solve temporally extended sequential decision making problems by composing simple behaviors. However, planning requires suitable abstractions for the states and transitions, which typically need to be designed by hand. In contrast, model-free reinforcement learning (RL) can acquire behaviors from l…
New framework evaluates model explanations based on decision task improvement.
problem Evaluation of model explanations often misses practical value.
method Decision-theoretic framework quantifying three key values.
result Provides benchmarks and interprets human-AI decision support.
Machine learning systems increasingly depend on pipelines of multiple algorithms to provide high quality and well structured predictions. This paper argues interaction effects between clustering and prediction (e.g. classification, regression) algorithms can cause subtle adverse behaviors during cross-validation that m…
Study uses ML to analyze financial behavior in big data.
problem Challenges in analyzing financial big data.
method Applied machine learning to financial behavioral data.
result ML models can effectively estimate performance in financial markets.
Can multilayer neural networks -- typically constructed as highly complex structures with many nonlinearly activated neurons across layers -- behave in a non-trivial way that yet simplifies away a major part of their complexities? In this work, we uncover a phenomenon in which the behavior of these complex networks -- …
CoinDICE estimates confidence intervals for unknown behavior policies in reinforcement learning.
problem Estimating value of a target policy using only behavior policy data.
method Function space embedding, generalized empirical likelihood method, Lagrangian optimization.
result Valid confidence intervals with tighter and more accurate estimates than existing methods.
This work tried to detect the existence of a relationship between the graphic signals - or patterns - observed day by day in the Brazilian stock market and the trends which happen after these signals, within a period of 8 years, for a number of securities. The results obtained from this study show evidence of the exist…
This paper presents a stochastic behavior analysis of a kernel-based stochastic restricted-gradient descent method. The restricted gradient gives a steepest ascent direction within the so-called dictionary subspace. The analysis provides the transient and steady state performance in the mean squared error criterion. It…
The paper studies heat behavior on curved spaces without radiality assumption.
problem Analyzing heat behavior on curved spaces.
method Examining heat equation solutions on specific Riemannian manifolds.
result Long-time convergence results hold on more general manifolds.
Cross-validation estimates model performance on unseen data, not training data.
problem Understanding how cross-validation estimates prediction error and its limitations.
method Analyzing linear models and popular prediction error estimates, introducing nested cross-validation.
result Cross-validation estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets, not the model at hand.
Bayesian approach improves car-following model calibration and validation with limited data.
problem Difficulties in calibrating car-following models using limited data for work zones.
method Bayesian programming for data analysis and parameter estimation.
result Bayesian methods enhance model calibration and validation accuracy.
HealthSyn generates synthetic user behavior data for health interventions.
problem Lack of representative data for testing AI health interventions.
method Uses Markov processes to simulate diverse user actions, generating logs for ML algorithms.
result Synthetic data can be used to develop, test, and evaluate ML algorithms and RL-based interventions.
Proposes a test to ensure predictive algorithms predict intended outcomes better than unintended ones.
problem Unintended model behavior leading to prediction of unintended outcomes.
method Falsification framework using nonparametric hypothesis testing to compare prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but not race in an admissions setting.
Current learning machines have successfully solved hard application problems, reaching high accuracy and displaying seemingly "intelligent" behavior. Here we apply recent techniques for explaining decisions of state-of-the-art learning machines and analyze various tasks from computer vision and arcade games. This showc…
Proposes a falsification framework to test algorithmic discriminant validity.
problem Unintended model behavior in predictive algorithms.
method Falsification framework based on statistical tests comparing prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity for some outcomes but not others.
New method uses synthetic data to validate financial agent classification.
problem Validation of machine learning methods for financial agent classification.
method Agent-based model to generate synthetic data for validation.
result Unsupervised clustering may give incorrect results for financial agents.
The classification of time series data is a challenge common to all data-driven fields. However, there is no agreement about which are the most efficient techniques to group unlabeled time-ordered data. This is because a successful classification of time series patterns depends on the goal and the domain of interest, i…
Method learns evolving policies in healthcare contexts.
problem Understanding non-stationary behavior in evolving decision-making processes.
method Inverse Contextual Bandits (ICB) approach for learning interpretable representations of non-stationary behavior.
result Demonstrated applicability and accuracy of ICB method in liver transplantation policies.
New method for cross-validation in high-dimensional data with dependent or heavy-tailed covariates.
problem Inconsistent cross-validation in high-dimensional settings with dependent or heavy-tailed covariates.
method ROTI-GCV framework for cross-validation under proportional asymptotics regime.
result Demonstrated accuracy of ROTI-GCV in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings.
Study explores learning behavior of GFlowNets, revealing key mechanisms.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of GFlowNets' learning dynamics.
method Rigorous theoretical investigation of four dimensions: convergence, sample complexity, implicit regularization, and robustness.
result Elucidates mechanisms underlying GFlowNet's learning dynamics, providing insights into performance factors.
We analyze multi-layer neural networks in the asymptotic regime of simultaneously (A) large network sizes and (B) large numbers of stochastic gradient descent training iterations. We rigorously establish the limiting behavior of the multi-layer neural network output. The limit procedure is valid for any number of hidde…
The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
problem Developing reliable trading signals from intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
method Constructed a composite day-classification system using three observable conditions.
result Classifier-positive days exhibit distinct intraday behavior but fail to generate profitable trading signals.
We derive a mesoscopic description of the behavior of a simple financial market where the agents can create their own portfolio between two investment alternatives: a stock and a bond. The model is derived starting from the Levy-Levy-Solomon microscopic model (Econ. Lett., 45, (1994), 103--111) using the methods of kin…
A rapid pattern-recognition approach to characterize driver's curve-negotiating behavior is proposed. To shorten the recognition time and improve the recognition of driving styles, a k-means clustering-based support vector machine ( kMC-SVM) method is developed and used for classifying drivers into two types: aggressiv…
A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.
problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.