A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling bank leverage dynamics to understand systemic risk in financial markets.
Leverage is strongly related to liquidity in a market and lack of liquidity is considered a cause and/or consequence of the recent financial crisis. A repurchase agreement is a financial instrument where a security is sold simultaneously with an agreement to buy it back at a later date. Repurchase agreements (repos) ma…
Behavior Transfer improves reinforcement learning by leveraging pre-trained policies.
Paper proposes a two-stage ranking for personalized TV recommendations.
LLMs prefer Bitcoin under crisis frames, affecting financial decisions.
Improved scalability and interpretability in training data attribution.
Modeling bank leverage dynamics using dynamical systems and neural networks.
Based on a criterion of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity generators of log-price and volatility are independent or are the same, two versions …
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
Study finds financial constraints explain zero-leverage firms.
The statistical leverage scores of a complex matrix record the degree of alignment between col and the coordinate axes in . These score are used in random sampling algorithms for solving certain numerical linear algebra problems. In this paper we present a max-plus algebr…
Based on a criterium of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity generators of log-price and volatility are independent or are the same, two versions …
Modeling price formation with interacting Hawkes processes leading to stochastic volatility with leverage.
Dual behavior policy improves reinforcement learning across various environments.
We study the problem of controllable generation of long-term sequential behaviors, where the goal is to calibrate to multiple behavior styles simultaneously. In contrast to the well-studied areas of controllable generation of images, text, and speech, there are two questions that pose significant challenges when genera…
We show that typical behaviors of market participants at the high frequency scale generate leverage effect and rough volatility. To do so, we build a simple microscopic model for the price of an asset based on Hawkes processes. We encode in this model some of the main features of market microstructure in the context of…
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during learning. In this framework, the preference for risk can be tuned by variation of the p…
In this paper, we introduce a methodology that allows to model behavioral trajectories of users in online social media. First, we illustrate how to leverage the probabilistic framework provided by Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to represent users by embedding the temporal sequences of actions they performed online. We the…
Are cryptocurrency traders driven by a desire to invest in a new asset class to diversify their portfolio or are they merely seeking to increase their levels of risk? To answer this question, we use individual-level brokerage data and study their behavior in stock trading around the time they engage in their first cryp…
TRIBE model uses LLMs to simulate human trading behavior in bond markets.
We use bank-level balance sheet data from 2005 to 2010 to study interactions within the banking system of five emerging countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Taiwan. For each country we construct a financial network based on the leverage ratio dependence between each pair of banks, and find results th…
Study uses ML to analyze financial behavior in big data.
Exploration is a key problem in reinforcement learning, since agents can only learn from data they acquire in the environment. With that in mind, maintaining a population of agents is an attractive method, as it allows data be collected with a diverse set of behaviors. This behavioral diversity is often boosted via mul…
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil. After estimating the volatility process without assuming any specific form of its b…
We investigate the spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China. In particular, we uncover different characteristics of the four markets by analyzing the sector and subsector structures which are detected through the random matrix theory. Meanwhile, we observe that the Taiwan and Hongkong …
Most e-commerce product feeds provide blended results of advertised products and recommended products to consumers. The underlying advertising and recommendation platforms share similar if not exactly the same set of candidate products. Consumers' behaviors on the advertised results constitute part of the recommendatio…
A new framework optimizes fMRI and behavioral data for better understanding of Autism.
Effective risk control must make a tradeoff between the microprudential risk of exogenous shocks to individual institutions and the macroprudential risks caused by their systemic interactions. We investigate a simple dynamical model for understanding this tradeoff, consisting of a bank with a leverage target and an unl…
ORIL learns a reward function from unlabeled data to improve robot learning.
We build a simple model of leveraged asset purchases with margin calls. Investment funds use what is perhaps the most basic financial strategy, called "value investing", i.e. systematically attempting to buy underpriced assets. When funds do not borrow, the price fluctuations of the asset are normally distributed and u…
This study examines how DEXs impact traders' behavior in perpetual futures contracts.
We propose a method to model multi-agent behaviors with limited observation and mechanical constraints.
Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles in order to plan safe and feasible trajectories. The behaviors of others, however, are full of uncertainties. Both rational and irrational behaviors exist, and the autonomous vehicles need to be aware of th…
New framework learns interaction rules from animal trajectories.
Learning algorithms are enabling robots to solve increasingly challenging real-world tasks. These approaches often rely on demonstrations and reproduce the behavior shown. Unexpected changes in the environment may require using different behaviors to achieve the same effect, for instance to reach and grasp an object in…
Understanding how funding and 4H context regulate crypto markets.
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping portfolios and leverage, and we show how it can be understood in terms of a generalized b…
One of the key reasons for the high sample complexity in reinforcement learning (RL) is the inability to transfer knowledge from one task to another. In standard multi-task RL settings, low-reward data collected while trying to solve one task provides little to no signal for solving that particular task and is hence ef…
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning is notoriously difficult in long- and infinite-horizon settings due to diminishing overlap between behavior and target policies. In this paper, we study the role of Markovian and time-invariant structure in efficient OPE. We first derive the efficiency bounds for OP…
New methods predict language model out-of-distribution behaviors using causal mechanisms.
Background: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not…
We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human capital beta signal(s) in a firm's capital structure, in order to enhance the value of her post career change indexed executive stock option contract with the firm. We prove that the agency cost of this revolving door behavior increas…
Future robots should follow human social norms in order to be useful and accepted in human society. In this paper, we leverage already existing social knowledge in human societies by capturing it in our framework through the notion of social norms. We show how norms can be used to guide a reinforcement learning agent t…
To widen their accessibility and increase their utility, intelligent agents must be able to learn complex behaviors as specified by (non-expert) human users. Moreover, they will need to learn these behaviors within a reasonable amount of time while efficiently leveraging the sparse feedback a human trainer is capable o…
With online payment platforms being ubiquitous and important, fraud transaction detection has become the key for such platforms, to ensure user account safety and platform security. In this work, we present a novel method for detecting fraud transactions by leveraging patterns from both users' static profiles and users…
Multimodal analysis assesses job interview performance and provides feedback.
The behavioral dynamics of multi-agent systems have a rich and orderly structure, which can be leveraged to understand these systems, and to improve how artificial agents learn to operate in them. Here we introduce Relational Forward Models (RFM) for multi-agent learning, networks that can learn to make accurate predic…
Multifractal processes are a relatively new tool of stock market analysis. Their power lies in the ability to take multiple orders of autocorrelations into account explicitly. In the first part of the paper we discuss the framework of the Lux model and refine the underlying phenomenological picture. We also give a proc…