Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Proposes a generic prediction architecture for autonomous vehicles considering both rational and irrational driving behaviors.
problem Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles for safe autonomous vehicle planning.
method Combines learning-based and planning-based models to address rationalities in human behavior.
result Stable prediction performance under various unseen driving scenarios.
STE algorithm predicts human behavior from sensor data.
problem Predicting human behavior from noisy, incomplete, and heterogeneous bio-behavioral data.
method Supervised Tensor Embedding (STE) algorithm for high-dimensional multimodal data.
result Features selection improves prediction performance.
Modeling student behaviors and multiple predictions for early intervention.
problem Predicting student outcomes and interactions among multiple tasks.
method Proposes a variant of LSTM and soft-attention mechanism for heterogeneous behaviors, and co-attention mechanism for task interactions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in predicting student outcomes and interactions.
Study highlights fairness issues in travel behavior prediction models.
problem Ethical challenges in travel behavior analysis using machine learning.
method Operationalized computational fairness by equality of opportunity; compared DNN and DCM; introduced absolute correlation regularization.
result Both DNN and DCM predict disparities across social groups, with DNN outperforming DCM in prediction disparities.
Model predicts human food choices based on demographics.
problem Predicting human food choices from demographic data.
method Non-deterministic model based on NHANES dataset and behavioral studies.
result Generates synthetic data similar to original dataset.
Proposes BehavDT model for context-aware user behavior prediction.
problem Building a context-aware predictive model based on diverse user behavioral activities.
method Introduces BehavDT, a behavioral decision tree that considers user behavior-oriented generalization.
result BehavDT model outperforms traditional machine learning approaches in predicting user diverse behaviors considering multi-dimensional contexts.
The paper predicts human-like driving behavior of other vehicles for safer AVs.
problem Safe and efficient interaction of AVs with other vehicles.
method Hierarchical inverse reinforcement learning considering both discrete and continuous decisions.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts both discrete and continuous driving behaviors.
Interactive tool helps analyze classifier prediction scores.
problem Understanding and assessing the reliability of multi-class classifiers.
method Interactive visualization tool (Classilist) to analyze prediction scores.
result Varying classifier behavior revealed through analysis of prediction scores.
PsychFM predicts individual gambling choices using psychological and machine learning models.
problem Predicting individual gambling choices with high precision.
method PsychFM combines machine learning and psychological theories.
result PsychFM outperforms existing models like random forest and factorization machines.
Paper predicts user interests from browsing history and event sequences.
problem Capturing subtle user interests and inter-personal influence.
method Deep prediction method based on two RNNs modeling temporal point process and attention mechanism.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in fine-grained user interest prediction.
New metric MADD assesses fairness of predictive student models.
problem Predictive student models can be biased and unfair, leading to discrimination.
method Proposes MADD metric to analyze model's discriminatory behaviors.
result Fair predictive performance does not guarantee fair behaviors or outcomes.
A combination of a priority queueing model and mean field theory shows the emergence of traders' swarm behavior, even when each has a subjective prediction of the market driven by a limit order book. Using a nonlinear Markov model, we analyze the dynamics of traders who select a favorable order price taking into accoun…
KFAtt improves CTR prediction by modeling user behavior with Kalman filtering attention.
problem Improving CTR prediction in personalized e-commerce search engines.
method KFAtt combines Kalman filtering with attention mechanisms to model user behavior.
result KFAtt outperforms existing methods in CTR prediction, achieving better performance in both offline and online settings.
Deep learning model predicts online fraud using customer behavior data.
problem Predicting online financial fraud from customer behavior data.
method Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) integrated with Markov Transition Field (MTF).
result The proposed model significantly improves fraud prediction compared to traditional methods.
Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.
problem Predicting equity risk premium based on stock market behavior changes.
method Introduced Bullish Index and used FDMAA for returns analysis; considered 28 indicators.
result Positive shocks in Bullish Index correlate with strong equity risk premium predictability for up to six months, while negative shocks correlate for up to nine months.
Paper proposes a multi-modal probabilistic prediction model for interactive behavior.
problem Predicting future motions of interacting entities in real-world scenarios.
method Generative model for joint prediction of sequential motions of interacting agents.
result Interpretable model capable of handling prediction uncertainties and multi-modal distributions.
Zap predicts user behavior online using diverse techniques.
problem Predicting user behavior on websites.
method Combines sequential data processing techniques with Bloom filters, bucketing, and model calibration.
result Creates website- and task-specific models without website-specific code.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
problem Understanding political motivations in decentralized prediction markets.
method Constructing PBLS from Polymarket data, analyzing 15k addresses, 4k events, 8k markets.
result Validated PBLS through internal and external comparisons, revealing political and profit motives.
New method interprets object representations from human behavior.
problem Understanding how mental object representations relate to human behavior.
method Sparse, non-negative representations of objects estimated from behavioral judgments.
result Representations predict latent object similarity and are interpretable.
This work studies the entity-wise topical behavior from massive network logs. Both the temporal and the spatial relationships of the behavior are explored with the learning architectures combing the recurrent neural network (RNN) and the convolutional neural network (CNN). To make the behavioral data appropriate for th…
New methods predict language model out-of-distribution behaviors using causal mechanisms.
problem Predicting how language models behave on unseen data.
method Two methods: counterfactual simulation and value probing.
result Both methods achieve high AUC-ROC and outperform causal-agnostic approaches in out-of-distribution settings.
Calendar graph neural networks model user behavior with location and time data.
problem Modeling user behavior with location and time information for demographic prediction.
method Graph neural networks with a tripartite network of items, sessions, and locations, and a hierarchical calendar network.
result User embeddings preserve spatial and temporal patterns of various periodicity.
BL learns interpretable optimization structures from data.
problem Learning interpretable optimization structures from data.
method BL parameterizes a compositional utility function from intrinsically interpretable modular blocks.
result BL supports architectures from single to hierarchical compositions, modeling hierarchical optimization structures.
Framework tracks and predicts multiple objects in autonomous driving.
problem Challenges in multi-target tracking due to object number fluctuation and occlusion.
method Constrained mixture sequential Monte Carlo (CMSMC) method with a mixture representation.
result Framework can track and predict multiple objects simultaneously without explicit data association.
Machine learning predicts phase behavior in active matter suspensions.
problem Predicting phase behavior in active matter systems using machine learning.
method Used deep learning techniques, including fully connected networks and graph neural networks, to predict motility-induced phase separation (MIPS) in ABP suspensions.
result Strong agreement between machine learning predictions and MIPS binodal from simulations, suggesting machine learning as an effective method for phase behavior determination.
There is a large amount of interest in understanding users of social media in order to predict their behavior in this space. Despite this interest, user predictability in social media is not well-understood. To examine this question, we consider a network of fifteen thousand users on Twitter over a seven week period. W…
The paper resolves behavioral finance objections to rational finance theory.
problem Predictability of asset returns, Equity Premium, Volatility Puzzle.
method Statistical models within rational finance theory.
result Offers resolutions to behavioral finance anomalies.
Automated model predicts C. elegans escape behavior.
problem Complex escape behavior of C. elegans due to rising temperature.
method Phenomenological modeling using Sir Isaac dynamical inference platform.
result Inferred model accurately predicts worm behavior and is biologically interpretable.
Bayes EMbedding refines embeddings from knowledge and behavior graphs.
problem Combining knowledge and behavior graphs for better entity embeddings.
method Bayesian framework integrating pre-trained embeddings from both graphs.
result BEM refines embeddings from both knowledge and behavior graphs.
The study explains YouTube commenters' behavior using rational inattention models.
problem Understanding and predicting YouTube commenters' behavior.
method Deep embedded clustering for user grouping, Bayesian revealed preferences for rationality testing, and behavioral economics constraints for attention span modeling.
result Most YouTube user groups optimize a Bayesian utility with rationally inattentive constraints.
Study improves vehicle motion prediction by incorporating traffic density.
problem Lack of contextual knowledge in predicting driving behavior.
method Categorize and define external conditions, evaluate motion prediction approach.
result Traffic density significantly improves motion prediction accuracy.
Model assesses credit risk using behavioral data from Experian and Bank of Italy.
problem Improving credit risk assessment in financial institutions.
method Statistical and machine learning techniques applied to behavioral data from Experian and Bank of Italy.
result Demonstrates transferability of the model from private to central data.
This paper compares machine learning and logit models for predicting travel mode choice.
problem Comparing interpretability of machine learning and logit models for travel mode choice.
method Empirical evaluation of machine learning and logit models on stated preference survey data.
result Machine learning produces significantly higher predictive accuracy than logit models.
At the core of interpretable machine learning is the question of whether humans are able to make accurate predictions about a model's behavior. Assumed in this question are three properties of the interpretable output: coverage, precision, and effort. Coverage refers to how often humans think they can predict the model…
GANs improve building performance model accuracy by integrating occupant behaviors.
problem Discrepancies between design and operation performance in buildings.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to learn mixture models combining existing BPMs with occupant behaviors.
result Augmented BPMs significantly outperform existing BPMs in achieving specified performance targets.
DIEN predicts CTR by evolving user interests from behavior data.
problem Capturing dynamic user interests for accurate CTR prediction.
method DIEN captures temporal and evolving user interests using interest extractor and evolving layers with attention mechanisms.
result DIEN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in CTR prediction.
Deep policy gradient algorithms deviate from their framework's predictions.
problem Understanding the behavior of deep policy gradient algorithms.
method Fine-grained analysis of gradient estimation, value prediction, and optimization landscapes.
result The surrogate objective does not match the true reward landscape, learned value estimators fail to fit the true value function, and gradient estimates poorly correlate with the true gradient.
Study predicts success of crypto-tokens on Pump.fun platform.
problem Identify factors affecting the success of new crypto-tokens.
method Build predictive models using bonding curve mechanism and structural/behavioral variables.
result Conditional variables significantly improve the predictive power of token success.
Technical report predicts eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals.
problem Predicting eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals.
method Applied multiple machine learning algorithms (Logistic Regression, RBF-SVM, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting) to minute-level features from sensors and environmental context.
result Gradient Boosting model had the highest mean accuracy score (0.7289) for predicting eating events before 0 to 4 minutes.
Mobile phone data predicts loan repayment risk.
problem Lack of formal financial histories hinders credit extension.
method Behavioral signatures in mobile phone usage data.
result Mobile phone data outperforms traditional credit scoring methods.
Deep learning predicts risky behavior in retail investors for financial risk management.
problem Predicting profitable trading behavior in retail investors.
method Developed a deep learning model to predict trader profitability.
result Deep learning outperforms conventional machine learning methods in predicting trader behavior.
Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior is an approximately optimal solution to an unknown decision problem. These tech…
Proposes a new pedestrian prediction model using urban data.
problem Predicting future pedestrian behavior for safer autonomous vehicle navigation.
method Growing Hidden Markov Model (GHMM) extension using cost maps and Natural Vision principles.
result Predicts pedestrian positions more accurately over a longer horizon.
Study reveals LLM personality patterns but lacks behavioral consistency.
problem Understanding and validating personality traits in LLMs.
method Characterized LLM personality across three dimensions: training dynamics, self-report validity, and intervention effects.
result Self-reported traits do not reliably predict behavior, and instructional alignment affects trait expression but not behavior.
Study shows diverse data types improve SARS-COV-2 case surge predictions.
problem Improving pandemic case surge predictions using multimodal data.
method Investigated the effectiveness of biological, public health, and behavioral features.
result Diverse feature sets enhance prediction accuracy, varying by country and phase.
Study uses deep learning to predict stock trends with superior performance.
problem Predicting short-term equity trends with high accuracy.
method Dual-task multilayer perceptron (MLP) integrating technical signals and deep learning.
result Deep learning model outperforms linear baselines in multi-factor stock selection.
Model predicts OTC dealers' trading behavior using historical data.
problem Predicting the trading decisions of OTC dealers for US corporate bonds.
method Applied machine learning methods, including neural networks and clustering.
result PPRZ Transformer model outperforms other models in predicting dealer behavior.