A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new clustering method using Bayesian techniques improves robustness and interpretability.
problem Improving clustering techniques for better robustness and interpretability.
method The paper proposes a novel Bayesian clustering method using the proper Bayesian bootstrap, which combines k-means clustering and ensemble clustering.
result The method provides clear indication on the optimal number of clusters and a better representation of the clustered data.
Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification
problem Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty for complex models
method Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty
result Asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification, recovers robust sandwich covariance under misspecification
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In …
This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.
problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.
In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to answer these questions. However, when the amount of available data is modest, there m…