Bayesian state estimation improves accuracy for unobservable power distribution systems.
problem State estimation for unobservable distribution systems.
method Deep learning approach with distribution learning, Monte Carlo training, and Bayesian bad-data detection.
result Deep learning outperforms existing benchmarks in state estimation accuracy.
Bayesian HMM for protein alignment state estimation.
problem Estimating the MAP state sequence for a Bayesian HMM.
method Training data with Dirichlet priors, iterative algorithms for MAP path estimation.
result Bayesian setup outperforms frequentist estimation in protein alignment.
Novel method uses Bayesian filters and PCRLB for state estimation of option prices.
problem Estimating unobserved latent variables from option prices.
method Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (PCRLB) based adaptive state estimation using various Bayesian filters.
result Proposed method outperforms individual filters and improves forecasting.
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
problem Estimating hidden states in Bayesian state space models efficiently.
method Amortized simulation-based inference with pretraining.
result The method achieves sufficient accuracy and fast inference times.
Bayesian state and parameter estimation for nonlinear models using variational methods.
problem Estimating states and parameters for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational approach to approximate the intractable Bayesian distribution, resulting in an optimisation problem.
result The proposed method efficiently computes Bayesian estimates for nonlinear models, outperforming Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in numerical examples.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.
Paper addresses state estimation in sensor networks with intermittent data.
problem State estimation in sensor networks with packet dropouts and corrupted observations.
method Bayesian variational inference with a dual-mask generative model.
result The method effectively identifies system states and noise parameters.
Paper presents a robust Kalman filter for state estimation.
problem Robust state estimation under process and measurement noise.
method Generalized Bayesian approach to a Weighted Observation Likelihood Filter (WoLF) framework.
result Achieved robust state estimation against both process and measurement noise.
Bayesian model learns multiscale interactions in complex systems.
problem Understanding dynamic interplay between processes at different time scales.
method Bayesian learning framework with Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) algorithm.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach through simulations.
RCUKF combines data-driven modeling and Bayesian estimation for accurate system state estimation.
problem Challenges in obtaining reliable process models for complex systems.
method Integrates reservoir computing with unscented Kalman filtering.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on benchmark problems and real-time vehicle trajectory estimation.
In this paper, we present a Bayesian channel estimation algorithm for multicarrier receivers based on pilot symbol observations. The inherent sparse nature of wireless multipath channels is exploited by modeling the prior distribution of multipath components' gains with a hierarchical representation of the Bessel K pro…
Paper introduces IO-NPF for efficient Bayesian experimental design.
problem Efficient Bayesian experimental design in non-exchangeable settings.
method Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF) for non-Markovian state-space models.
result IO-NPF achieves O(T2) computational complexity, improving efficiency. New variational inference approach using Hilbert space for robotic state estimation.
problem Robotic state estimation with high-dimensional data.
method Variational inference reformulated in a Bayesian Hilbert space, using iterative projection.
result Variational inference can be seen as iterative projection in Euclidean space.
dynestyx: A library for probabilistic programming of dynamical systems
problem integrating state-space models into probabilistic programming languages
method a unified interface for specifying priors and performing inference
result principled uncertainty quantification for state and parameters
We study the Bayesian model averaging approach to learning Bayesian network structures (DAGs) from data. We develop new algorithms including the first algorithm that is able to efficiently sample DAGs according to the exact structure posterior. The DAG samples can then be used to construct estimators for the posterior …
Bayesian Predictive Coding improves deep learning uncertainty quantification.
problem Limitations of maximum a posteriori and maximum likelihood estimates in predictive coding.
method Developed Bayesian Predictive Coding (BPC) that estimates a posterior distribution over network parameters.
result BPC offers comparable uncertainty quantification to existing methods in Bayesian deep learning and improves convergence properties.
New framework models uncertainty with uncertainty variables.
problem Modeling uncertainty in state estimation and inference.
method Developed uncertainty variables, sets, and graphical models.
result Preserves independence properties and builds useful concepts.
Automates model comparison in probabilistic programming.
problem Manual derivations for model comparison are error-prone and time-consuming.
method Message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node.
result Automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination.
Bayesian method detects neuron spike activities from noisy fluorescence data.
problem Detecting neuron spike activities from noisy fluorescence data.
method Random finite set (RFS) based Bayesian approach.
result Gains 12% extra detection accuracy compared to MLSpike method.
Paper offers fast deep learning approach for SSMs.
problem Approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs.
method Deep learning and variational inference.
result Fast approach for SSMs.
Adaptive Heston model calibration using PCRLB and switching filters.
problem Estimating volatility in stochastic volatility models like Heston.
method Bayesian filtering (EKF, UKF, PF) with PCRLB for parameter estimation.
result Adaptive estimation of Heston model parameters improves volatility estimation.
Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Wiener-type state-space models
problem Estimating parameters in Wiener-type state-space models
method Fixed-point architecture combining two affine estimators
result Dual basis-parameter estimator achieves comparable parameter MSE to purely affine estimator
BAND tackles high-dimensional distribution estimation with sparse Bayesian networks.
problem High-dimensional distribution estimation suffers from the curse of dimensionality.
method Sparse Bayesian network approach with sparsity-aware conditional mean methods.
result Achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates in high dimensions.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.
RNF learns distinct representations for Bayesian filtering steps, improving time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Improving time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty using distinct representations for Bayesian filtering steps.
method Introduces Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF) architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step.
result RNF improves accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts and provides realistic uncertainty estimates.
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
Paper proposes a learning-based sparse Bayesian method for accurate off-grid DOA estimation.
problem One-bit off-grid direction of arrival (DOA) estimation in a single snapshot scenario.
method Formulated off-grid DOA estimation model, used Sparse Bayesian framework, proposed Learning-based Sparse Bayesian approach.
result Improved computational efficiency and accuracy in off-grid DOA estimation.
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling, estimation and…
This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.
problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.
Convolutional Bayesian filtering generalizes state estimation by incorporating inequality conditions.
problem Standard Bayesian filtering assumes exact conditional probabilities, limiting its applicability.
method Introducing inequality conditions transforms conditional probabilities into convolutional forms, expanding the filtering framework.
result Convolutional Bayesian filtering encompasses standard Bayesian filtering and allows for more nuanced model consideration.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
On-line estimation plays an important role in process control and monitoring. Obtaining a theoretical solution to the simultaneous state-parameter estimation problem for non-linear stochastic systems involves solving complex multi-dimensional integrals that are not amenable to analytical solution. While basic sequentia…
Novel method recursively partitions sample space for density estimation.
problem Estimating complex density functions efficiently and accurately.
method Recursive partitioning of the sample space, asymptotically exact.
result Asymptotically exact approximation of any density function.
Bayesian optimization improves Monte-Carlo tree search for better state value estimation.
problem Slow convergence in Monte-Carlo tree search due to averaging in backpropagation.
method Softmax MCTS and Monotone MCTS, using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process prior.
result Our framework outperforms previous methods in computer Go.
Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.
problem Analyzing complex interactions between fast and slow processes.
method Hierarchical state-space modeling with Sequential Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian approach accurately tracks state transitions and identifies switching dynamics.
DropConnect improves uncertainty estimation in Bayesian deep networks.
problem Modeling uncertainty in Bayesian deep networks for safety-critical applications.
method Developed a theoretical framework to approximate Bayesian inference for DNNs using MC-DropConnect.
result Significant improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty estimation quality.
Existing methods for sparse channel estimation typically provide an estimate computed as the solution maximizing an objective function defined as the sum of the log-likelihood function and a penalization term proportional to the l1-norm of the parameter of interest. However, other penalization terms have proven to have…
Bayesian inference of discrete component states in civil infrastructures using PGMs and GNNs.
problem Inferring discrete states of civil infrastructure components from measurable responses is an ill-posed inverse problem.
method The study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). PGMs are used to model the problem, with parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. Inference is accomplished by GNNs, and a graph property-based training strategy is developed.
result The proposed framework effectively solves the challenges of inferring the posterior PDF for discrete variables in high-dimensional problems.
New method improves reliability of depth estimation models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in large-scale vision models.
method Parameter-efficient Bayesian neural networks with PEFT methods.
result Combining PEFT methods with Bayesian inference enhances predictive performance.
We consider a network scenario in which agents can evaluate each other according to a score graph that models some interactions. The goal is to design a distributed protocol, run by the agents, that allows them to learn their unknown state among a finite set of possible values. We propose a Bayesian framework in which …
Bayesian model explains and improves black-box estimators for class distribution.
problem Calibrating probabilistic classifiers and uncertainty quantification for unlabeled data.
method Introduced a Bayesian model approximating the ground-truth generative process, using efficient MCMC sampling.
result The Bayesian model is competitive and sometimes superior to established point estimators.
Brain uses synaptic failure to sample from posterior distributions.
problem Bayesian inference in the brain's probabilistic computations.
method Adapting synaptic failure to sample posterior predictive distributions.
result Synaptic failure enables sampling of complete posterior predictive distributions.
Bayesian graphical models are a useful tool for understanding dependence relationships among many variables, particularly in situations with external prior information. In high-dimensional settings, the space of possible graphs becomes enormous, rendering even state-of-the-art Bayesian stochastic search computationally…
Bayesian neural networks improve likelihood-free inference efficiency.
problem Efficient parameter inference from simulation models with uncertainty.
method Bayesian neural networks for summary statistics, adaptive sampling.
result More robust and efficient posterior estimation.
Bayesian approach optimizes in-context learning for state space models.
problem Optimizing in-context learning for state space models.
method Bayesian optimal sequential prediction over latent sequence tasks.
result Bayesian optimal predictor converges to posterior predictive mean.
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamical systems from noisy data.
method Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for ODE inverse problems.
result Accurate time predictions and uncertainty bounds.
We simplify Bayesian filtering by framing it as optimization, making it practical for high-dimensional systems.
problem Bayesian filtering struggles in high-dimensional state spaces like neural networks.
method We frame Bayesian filtering as optimization, using gradient descent for nonlinear cases.
result Our method results in effective, robust, and scalable filters for high-dimensional systems.
Introduces a neural network-based method for efficient state and parameter estimation in complex systems.
problem Efficiently estimating state paths and parameters from noisy measurements in high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian Information Field Theory with neural network parameterization and optimization algorithms.
result Proposes a method to simplify and enrich state path parameterizations using neural networks, improving inference accuracy.