Smoothing graphons improve link prediction in Bayesian SBM without increasing computational complexity.
problem Accurate modeling of exchangeable relational data with flexible and computationally efficient graphons.
method Introducing smoothing procedures to piecewise-constant graphons to create smoothing graphons, which allow continuous intensity values for relations.
result Smoothing graphons improve AUC and precision for link prediction in real-world data sets.
Algorithm improves variational inference in Wasserstein distance.
problem Improving variational inference methods for complex models.
method Wasserstein contraction analysis of coordinate ascent.
result General and sharp convergence guarantees for various models.
Bayesian Probabilistic Integration uses BART for high-dimensional, non-smooth functions.
problem Bayesian quadrature's limitations in high-dimensional or non-smooth functions.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors for numerical integration.
result Explicit convergence rates can be obtained in various settings.
Improved Gibbs sampler speeds up Bayesian exponential smoothing model.
problem Computational inefficiency of original NUTS sampler.
method Modifications to the original model and a bespoke Gibbs sampler.
result Significant improvement in sampling time by an order of magnitude.
Bayesian optimization tackles non-smooth tuning problems.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with non-smoothness and limited samples.
method Proposed a clustered Gaussian process (cGP) model for non-smooth optimization.
result Improvement of up to 90% in performance for repetitive experiments.
Unified framework for ensemble transport-based smoothing of non-Gaussian time series.
problem Bayesian time series re-analysis with non-Gaussian distributions.
method Measure transport approach to derive consistent prior-to-posterior transformations.
result General ensemble framework for transport-based smoothing of state-space models.
Novel approach for estimating conditional expectations using Bayesian quadrature.
problem Estimating conditional expectations with costly evaluations.
method Probabilistic numerical methods incorporating prior smoothness knowledge.
result Fast convergence rate and uncertainty quantification.
Study nonconcave portfolio choice with smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
problem Nonconcave portfolio choice under smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
method Developed a general framework for dynamic, non-concave asset allocation.
result Dynamic consistency achieved through a robust representation.
Bayesian methods estimate regression functions on submanifolds using graph Laplacian eigenbasis.
problem Estimating regression functions on unknown smooth submanifolds.
method Random geometric graph structure, Bayesian priors based on random basis expansion in graph Laplacian eigenbasis.
result Posterior contraction rates are minimax optimal for any positive smoothness index.
Suppose one is faced with the challenge of tissue segmentation in MR images, without annotators at their center to provide labeled training data. One option is to go to another medical center for a trained classifier. Sadly, tissue classifiers do not generalize well across centers due to voxel intensity shifts caused b…
T-LoHo model detects structured sparsity and smoothness on graph data.
problem Detecting structured sparsity and smoothness in graph-structured data.
method Tree-based Low-rank Horseshoe (T-LoHo) prior for multivariate parameters.
result Improves anomaly detection on road networks compared to other methods.
Adaptive Bayesian learning aggregates experts to improve performance.
problem Bayesian online learning's performance depends on inferential choices.
method Treat Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregate them based on sequential predictive losses.
result The aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at a low aggregation cost.
The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such appr…
Bayesian KANs achieve near-minimax posterior contraction rates in anisotropic Besov spaces.
problem Statistical foundation for Bayesian Kolmogorov-Arnold networks in anisotropic Besov spaces.
method Sparse Bayesian KANs with spike-and-slab priors, hyperprior on model size, and approximation complexity bounds.
result Posterior contraction rates depend on intrinsic anisotropic smoothness and effective dimension of the compositional structure.
Bayesian neural network achieves nearly optimal performance in Besov space.
problem Bayesian neural networks in Besov space.
method Spike-and-slab prior and shrinkage prior for posterior convergence rate.
result The posterior convergence rate is nearly minimax and adaptive to unknown smoothness.
Bayesian GAMs improve predictive performance for high-dimensional data.
problem Sparse regularization in GAMs leads to excess shrinkage and difficulty in selecting nonlinear effects.
method Developed a novel spike-and-slab LASSO prior and scalable EM-Coordinate Descent algorithm.
result Improved predictive and computational performance compared to existing models.
A new method for efficient BNC parameter estimation outperforms HDP smoothing.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters for Bayesian network classifiers to match or exceed random forest performance.
method Uses log-linear regression to approximate hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) smoothing, making the approach simpler and faster.
result Our method outperforms HDP smoothing while being orders of magnitude faster and competitive with random forests.
As an important Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) algorithm has achieved great success in Bayesian learning and posterior sampling. However, SGLD typically suffers from slow convergence rate due to its large variance caused by the stochastic gradient. In order to allev…
Bayesian optimization on networks using Gaussian process models.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions on network structures.
method Developed Bayesian optimization algorithms with Gaussian process surrogates tailored to network geometry.
result Established regret bounds for smooth objective functions and analyzed practical cases.
Let M be a smooth compact oriented manifold without boundary, imbedded in a euclidean space E and let f be a smooth map of M into a Riemannian manifold N. An unknown state x in M is observed via X=x+su where s>0 is a small parameter and u is a white Gaussian noise. For a given smooth prior on M and smooth estimators g …
Bayesian framework for sequential learning tasks with low-rank approximations.
problem Balancing knowledge retention and adaptability in sequential neural networks.
method Bayesian framework with diagonal plus low-rank approximations of the precision matrix.
result Unlocking capabilities to encode task relationships and incorporate prior knowledge from later tasks.
SPH-ParVI uses fluid dynamics to sample unknown densities efficiently.
problem Sampling partially known densities or using gradients in probabilistic models.
method Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) for modeling fluid dynamics to approximate target densities.
result SPH-ParVI provides fast, flexible, scalable, and deterministic sampling for Bayesian inference and generative models.
Spike-and-Slab Deep Learning (SS-DL) is a fully Bayesian alternative to Dropout for improving generalizability of deep ReLU networks. This new type of regularization enables provable recovery of smooth input-output maps with unknown levels of smoothness. Indeed, we show that the posterior distribution concentrates at t…
Bayesian nonparametrics improves data-driven risk optimization under distributional uncertainty.
problem Improving out-of-sample performance in machine learning models due to distributional uncertainty.
method Combining Bayesian nonparametric theory and decision-theoretic preferences to propose a robust optimization criterion.
result The proposed robust optimization procedure provides favorable statistical guarantees and tractable approximations.
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
Optimizes spectral density estimation for stationary and nonstationary processes.
problem Estimating spectral density of time series with complex structure.
method Optimally adaptive Bayesian spectral density estimation using smoothing spline covariance structure.
result Optimal eigendecomposition provides superior performance compared to alternative covariance functions.
Unified framework for adaptive connection sampling in GNNs improves performance and robustness.
problem Over-smoothing and over-fitting in deep GNNs.
method Adaptive connection sampling trained jointly with GNN model parameters.
result Adaptive connection sampling mathematically equivalent to Bayesian GNNs approximation.
Scalable model checking for stochastic systems using Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks.
problem Efficiently verifying properties of stochastic systems with high-dimensional parameter spaces.
method Stochastic Variational Smoothed Model Checking (SV-smMC) using Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks.
result SV-smMC scales to larger datasets and enables application to high-dimensional parameter spaces.
Bayesian nonparametric LABS model adapts to function smoothness in Besov spaces.
problem Estimating functions with unknown smoothness in Besov spaces.
method Lévy Adaptive B-spline (LABS) regression model with automatic smoothness adaptation.
result LABS posterior contracts around true function in Besov classes at nearly minimax-optimal rates.
Spatial smoothing improves BNNs' accuracy, uncertainty, and robustness without increasing computational cost.
problem Large ensembles in BNNs increase computational cost and reduce performance.
method Spatial smoothing adds blur layers to convolutional neural networks to ensemble neighboring feature map points.
result Spatial smoothing improves BNNs' performance with fewer ensembles and enhances robustness.
We propose a Bayesian framework of Gaussian process in order to extend Fisher's discriminant to classify functional data such as spectra and images. The probability structure for our extended Fisher's discriminant is explicitly formulated, and we utilize the smoothness assumptions of functional data as prior probabilit…
Bayesian optimization improves molecule design by addressing three pitfalls.
problem Bayesian optimization pitfalls cause poor performance in molecule design.
method Identified and addressed three pitfalls: incorrect prior width, over-smoothing, and inadequate acquisition function maximization.
result Basic BO setup achieves highest performance on PMO benchmark.
Bayesian deep learning with heavy-tailed weights achieves near-optimal performance.
problem Deep neural networks with heavy-tailed weights achieve near-optimal performance in various contexts.
method Introduced a Bayesian deep learning prior based on heavy-tailed weights and ReLU activation, showing near-optimal minimax contraction rates.
result Posterior distribution achieves near-optimal minimax contraction rates, adaptive to smoothness and intrinsic dimension.
Improved model for non-smooth signals with complex spectra.
problem Current models struggle with non-smooth signals and complex spectral structures.
method CGPCM and RGPCM models with causality and Bayesian nonparametric interpretations, improved variational inference.
result Proposed models show better performance on synthetic and real-world data.
Bayesian neural networks learn weights with closed-form updates.
problem Efficiently learning Bayesian neural networks with closed-form updates.
method Closed-form Bayesian inference for online learning of Gaussian-weighted BNNs.
result Closed-form expressions for sequential/online training of BNNs.
New research connects evolutionary dynamics to Bayesian learning.
problem Connecting evolutionary biology and Bayesian learning.
method Rigorous mathematical proof using Kushner-Stratonovich equation and gradient flows.
result Discrete time filtering equations converge to Stratonovich interpretation of Kushner-Stratonovich equation.
The paper establishes conditions for Bayesian consistency in supremum metric.
problem Ensuring Bayesian consistency in the supremum metric.
method Using a triangle inequality and weak convergence, the paper establishes conditions for Bayesian consistency.
result Demonstrates supremum consistency with weaker conditions than previously used.
Bayesian model clusters brain activity time series.
problem Heterogeneous multivariate time series in brain imaging.
method Group-based Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines with covariate effects.
result Distinct brain activity patterns identified.
GS-B3SE improves label shift estimation by smoothing priors on a graph.
problem Label shift adaptation when source and target distributions share conditional but not marginal probabilities.
method Graph-Smoothed Bayesian Black-Box Shift Estimator (GS-B3SE) places Laplacian-Gaussian priors on log-priors and confusion-matrix columns tied by a label-similarity graph. result GS-B3SE produces a tractable posterior with HMC or Newton-CG schemes, proving identifiability, contraction, and robustness. In spite of several notable efforts, explaining the generalization of deterministic non-smooth deep nets, e.g., ReLU-nets, has remained challenging. Existing approaches for deterministic non-smooth deep nets typically need to bound the Lipschitz constant of such deep nets but such bounds are quite large, may even incre…
Bayesian inference for biochemical reaction networks using jump-diffusion approximations.
problem Estimating hidden quantities in poorly characterized biochemical processes.
method Developed a Bayesian inference algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods.
result Numerical evaluation of the algorithm for a partially observed multi-scale birth-death process.
Generative Bayesian Computation improves surrogates for expensive simulations.
problem Limitations of Gaussian process surrogates in handling complex, non-stationary data.
method Generative Bayesian Computation via Implicit Quantile Networks (IQNs).
result Generative Bayesian Computation outperforms traditional Gaussian process methods across various benchmarks.
Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such…
FLUID uses flows to unify filtering and smoothing for complex systems.
problem Bayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
method FLUID encodes observation histories into a fixed summary statistic, using flows for filtering and smoothing.
result FLUID provides accurate approximations of filtering and smoothing distributions.
RAMBO optimizes multi-regime problems by discovering and modeling distinct energy basins.
problem Multi-regime problems in molecular conformation and drug discovery.
method Dirichlet Process Mixture of Gaussian Processes with adaptive hyperparameters and concentration parameters.
result Consistent improvements over state-of-the-art on multi-regime objectives.
Greedy algorithm nearly outperforms exploration in contextual bandits.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in online learning.
method Smoothed analysis of the greedy algorithm in linear contextual bandits.
result Greedy algorithm nearly matches Bayesian regret rate under diversity conditions, with regret at most O(T1/3). Parallel-in-time solver reduces ODE simulation time from linear to logarithmic.
problem Efficiently solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with reduced computational cost.
method Formulated a parallel-in-time probabilistic numerical ODE solver using time-parallel formulation of iterated extended Kalman smoothers.
result Reduces span cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of time steps.
Simple linear models outperform complex BO methods in high dimensions.
problem Overcoming the curse of dimensionality in Bayesian optimization.
method Bayesian linear regression with linear kernels, applied to high-dimensional search spaces.
result Simple linear models match or outperform state-of-the-art BO methods in high-dimensional tasks.