A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian framework integrates spectral deconvolution with expert reasoning for robust peak estimation.
Transformers mimic Bayesian reasoning in controlled settings, revealing geometric mechanisms.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve uncertainty reasoning in NNs.
R2-B2 optimizes game interactions with recursive reasoning.
The paper explores how to evaluate Bayesian approximations in neural networks.
In this work we investigate the reasons why Batch Normalization (BN) improves the generalization performance of deep networks. We argue that one major reason, distinguishing it from data-independent normalization methods, is randomness of batch statistics. This randomness appears in the parameters rather than in activa…
Paper refines royalty determination using Bayesian methods.
Proposes a new prior for complex models to improve prediction accuracy.
Bayesian RL enhances LLMs to reflectively explore and correct errors.
Bayesian framework explains diverse explanatory values.
We present the Bayesian Case Model (BCM), a general framework for Bayesian case-based reasoning (CBR) and prototype classification and clustering. BCM brings the intuitive power of CBR to a Bayesian generative framework. The BCM learns prototypes, the "quintessential" observations that best represent clusters in a data…
We showed how to use trained neural networks to perform Bayesian reasoning in order to solve tasks outside their initial scope. Deep generative models provide prior knowledge, and classification/regression networks impose constraints. The tasks at hand were formulated as Bayesian inference problems, which we approximat…
Bayesian network classifiers are used in many fields, and one common class of classifiers are naive Bayes classifiers. In this paper, we introduce an approach for reasoning about Bayesian network classifiers in which we explicitly convert them into Ordered Decision Diagrams (ODDs), which are then used to reason about t…
We review three algorithms for Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Two of them are variational inference algorithms: Variational Bayesian inference and Online Variational Bayesian inference and one is Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm -- Collapsed Gibbs sampling. We compare their time complexity and performance.…
Bayesian interpolants explain neural network inferences concisely.
We draw a formal connection between using synthetic training data to optimize neural network parameters and approximate, Bayesian, model-based reasoning. In particular, training a neural network using synthetic data can be viewed as learning a proposal distribution generator for approximate inference in the synthetic-d…
Recent reports have described that learning Bayesian networks are highly sensitive to the chosen equivalent sample size (ESS) in the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence uniform (BDeu). This sensitivity often engenders some unstable or undesirable results. This paper describes some asymptotic analyses of BDeu to explain the …
The paper optimizes LLM accuracy by stopping early based on consistent answers.
We show that a neural network with arbitrary depth and non-linearities, with dropout applied before every weight layer, is mathematically equivalent to an approximation to a well known Bayesian model. This interpretation might offer an explanation to some of dropout's key properties, such as its robustness to over-fitt…
Bayesian methods enhance deep learning models by improving reliability and uncertainty.
New analysis shows how cross-entropy training shapes attention in transformers.
Bayesian PINNs optimize loss weights for PDEs and data.
Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model uncertainty. Variational methods have been used for approximating intractable integrals t…
An Artificial Intelligence (AI) system is an autonomous system which emulates human mental and physical activities such as Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act, called the OODA process. An AI system performing the OODA process requires a semantically rich representation to handle a complex real world situation and ability …
Bayesian optimization improves policy search in reinforcement learning.
Investigates long-term performance of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization.
Work proposes a new framework to improve uncertainty estimation in deep Bayesian models.
Improves many-shot learning by optimizing and generating influential examples.
The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to considering a finite horizon framework. However, assuming infinite exchangeability gives…
Bayesian methods for machine learning have been widely investigated, yielding principled methods for incorporating prior information into inference algorithms. In this survey, we provide an in-depth review of the role of Bayesian methods for the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm. The major incentives for incorporati…
Dropout has recently emerged as a powerful and simple method for training neural networks preventing co-adaptation by stochastically omitting neurons. Dropout is currently not grounded in explicit modelling assumptions which so far has precluded its adoption in Bayesian modelling. Using Bayesian entropic reasoning we s…
Bayesian neural networks benefit from fully marginalizing over all modes to improve generalization.
ABCI infers causal models and queries simultaneously using Bayesian active learning.
This work analyzes CoT prompting methods from a statistical estimation perspective.
New method improves uncertainty estimation in Bayesian deep learning models.
New method calibrates LLMs for safety-critical tasks with scalable Bayesian inference.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard. While reasonable practical solutions have been advanced, they can often fail to …
DiBS learns Bayesian network structure and parameters efficiently.
In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient computation or an information loss to reasoning about such processes, continuous-time…
Bayesian optimization enhanced with conformal prediction for better outcome reliability.
We present a new method to approximate posterior probabilities of Bayesian Network using Deep Neural Network. Experiment results on several public Bayesian Network datasets shows that Deep Neural Network is capable of learning joint probability distri- bution of Bayesian Network by learning from a few observation and p…
Bayesian approach models neurodegenerative diseases without clinical labels.
The paper introduces a method to probabilistically select inducing points in sparse Gaussian processes.
Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use of approximate inference, Bayesian uncertainty estimates are often inaccurate -…
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a fully Bayesian approach to modeling with ensembles of trees. BART can uncover complex regression functions with high dimensional regressors in a fairly automatic way and provide Bayesian quantification of the uncertainty through the posterior. However, BART assumes IID nor…
Video analytics requires operating with large amounts of data. Compressive sensing allows to reduce the number of measurements required to represent the video using the prior knowledge of sparsity of the original signal, but it imposes certain conditions on the design matrix. The Bayesian compressive sensing approach r…
DLM for BNNs fails to improve over ELBO optimization.