Bayesian approach models neurodegenerative diseases without clinical labels.
problem Personalized, predictive modeling of neurodegenerative diseases.
method Probabilistic programmed deep kernel learning combining Gaussian processes and neural networks.
result Surpasses deep learning in accuracy and timeliness of predicting neurodegeneration.
In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural netw…
This dissertation uses ILP to learn Bayesian network structures efficiently.
problem Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data.
method Integer Linear Programming formulation with cluster constraints and cutting planes.
result The approach finds feasible solutions for Bayesian network structures efficiently.
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
problem Policy search in stochastic domains.
method Nested probabilistic programs, Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) adaptation.
result Similar quality policies learned with simpler algorithm.
Bayesian hybrid models correct for missing physics in machine learning.
problem Systematic bias in machine learning models.
method Fusing physics-based insights with machine learning constructs, using Bayesian calibration and stochastic programming.
result Bayesian hybrid models outperform pure machine learning approaches with less data.
dynestyx: A library for probabilistic programming of dynamical systems
problem integrating state-space models into probabilistic programming languages
method a unified interface for specifying priors and performing inference
result principled uncertainty quantification for state and parameters
Machine learning finds knots that bound ribbon disks.
problem Detecting ribbon knots in topology.
method Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning.
result Successfully detected many ribbon knots up to 70 crossings.
Enhances Bayesian learning with rule-based evolutionary techniques.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with expert knowledge and data patterns.
method Combines Bayesian inference with rule-based systems and grammatical evolution.
result Automatically derives rules from data, improving point predictions and uncertainty quantification.
People can learn complex visual concepts from just a few examples.
problem Understanding how people learn and categorize visual concepts from limited data.
method Bayesian program learning model that searches for the best explanation of observations.
result People's judgments are broadly consistent with a Bayesian program learning model, indicating they can learn rich algorithmic abstractions from sparse input data.
ExDBN learns dynamic Bayesian networks using mixed-integer programming.
problem Learning dynamic causal relationships from time series data.
method Score-based learning algorithm using mixed-integer quadratic programming with branch-and-cut method.
result The proposed method produces more accurate results than state-of-the-art approaches.
Bayesian framework for robust model discovery from noisy data.
problem Robust model discovery from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian differential programming using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
New method learns BN structures from data efficiently.
problem Learning sparse DAG structure of BN from continuous data.
method Consistent second-order conic integer programming with early stopping criterion.
result Near-optimal solutions to medium-size problems within reasonable time.
PClean automates Bayesian data cleaning for specific datasets.
problem Bayesian inference for diverse and complex data cleaning.
method Domain-specific probabilistic programming language with custom models and inference.
result PClean programs outperform general-purpose PPLs in accuracy and runtime.
A new framework speeds up Bayesian inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic programs.
method Embeds a sampler within a refined variational posterior approximation, using automatic differentiation for parameter tuning.
result Significantly speeds up mixing time and improves efficiency in various probabilistic program tasks.
Bayesian method approximates intractable stochastic programs with chance constraints.
problem Designing systems with stochastic constraints and chance constraints.
method Variational Bayesian approach to approximate posterior predictive integral.
result The solution set converges to the true solution set as the number of observations increases.
Novel framework for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with robustness against uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with uncertainty in transition dynamics.
method Developed a risk-sensitive robust Markov decision process (RSRMDP), derived its Bellman equation, and proposed a Bayesian Dynamic Programming (Bayesian DP) algorithm.
result Demonstrated convergence to near-optimal policies and analyzed sample and computational complexities.
Novel framework for Bayesian reinforcement learning infers value function distributions.
problem Bayesian reinforcement learning's challenges in inferring value function distributions.
method Inferential Induction framework for Bayesian reinforcement learning, developing Bayesian Backwards Induction algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.
Etalumis bridges scientific simulators and probabilistic programming.
problem Infeasibility of rewriting scientific simulators for Bayesian inference.
method Cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, MCMC and IC engines, distributed training of 3DCNN-LSTM.
result Achieved largest-scale posterior inference in a Turing-complete PPL for LHC use-case.
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are a powerful modeling tool, able to represent any computable probability distribution. Unfortunately, probabilistic program inference is often intractable, and existing PPLs mostly rely on expensive, approximate sampling-based methods. To alleviate this problem, one could tr…
The idea of computer vision as the Bayesian inverse problem to computer graphics has a long history and an appealing elegance, but it has proved difficult to directly implement. Instead, most vision tasks are approached via complex bottom-up processing pipelines. Here we show that it is possible to write short, simple …
Exact causal network discovery is polynomial for sparse networks.
problem Finding the optimal causal Bayesian network from data is computationally hard.
method Pruning the search space using network properties, combined with dynamic programming and shortest-path searches.
result Exact discovery is polynomial for sparse causal Bayesian networks.
Bayesian optimization tackles non-convex, two-stage stochastic problems efficiently.
problem Solving non-convex, two-stage stochastic optimization problems with expensive, black-box evaluations.
method Knowledge-gradient-based acquisition function for joint optimization of first- and second-stage variables.
result Comparable and superior empirical results compared to alternatives.
Automates model comparison in probabilistic programming.
problem Manual derivations for model comparison are error-prone and time-consuming.
method Message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node.
result Automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination.
Bayesian approach infers signaling pathways from data.
problem Accurately understand cellular regulation processes.
method Dynamic Bayesian Network structure estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
result Efficient sampling of sparse graphs improves inference.
ParaMonte simplifies Monte Carlo simulations for various scientific fields.
problem Efficiently performing Monte Carlo simulations for complex models.
method Unified, high-performance, parallelized library for C, C++, Fortran.
result Automates and streamlines Monte Carlo sampling for arbitrary-dimensional functions.
Bayesian approach improves car-following model calibration and validation.
problem Insufficient data and computational constraints limit accurate model calibration.
method Bayesian machine learning and probabilistic programming.
result Unique parameter sets estimated for each driver, outperforming standard approaches.
Unified approach to DP problems using Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference.
problem Solving classical optimal path problems in a probabilistic framework.
method Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference for latent optimal paths.
result Unified approach transforms DP problems into directed acyclic graphs with Gibbs distribution.
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.
problem Discrete statistical models with infinite support and continuous priors.
method Probabilistic programming language with automatic differentiation and probability generating functions.
result Genfer tool provides exact solutions for a wide range of inference problems.
We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction over deterministic and stochastic functions and allows for scalability via the unde…
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any graphical model, can be optimized with respect to an arbitrary subset of its sampled …
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time i…
Deep learning method for comparing hierarchical models.
problem Intractability of Bayesian model comparison for hierarchical models.
method Amortized inference deep learning method for probabilistic programs.
result Excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings.
d3p package enables efficient Bayesian inference with differential privacy.
problem Efficiently performing Bayesian inference under differential privacy constraints.
method Differentially private variational inference for flexible probabilistic models.
result Achieves significant speed-up in runtime for complex models.
Develops a dynamic mean field theory for reinforcement learning.
problem Finite state and action Bayesian reinforcement learning in large state spaces.
method Analogies with statistical physics, interpreting probabilities as couplings and values as spins, solving mean field equations.
result State-action values are statistically independent in the asymptotic state space limit, with exact or approximate equations for computation.
We design a new myopic strategy for a wide class of sequential design of experiment (DOE) problems, where the goal is to collect data in order to to fulfil a certain problem specific goal. Our approach, Myopic Posterior Sampling (MPS), is inspired by the classical posterior (Thompson) sampling algorithm for multi-armed…
BNN-DP improves robustness analysis of Bayesian Neural Networks.
problem Ensuring robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks against adversarial attacks.
method Dynamic Programming applied to Bayesian Neural Networks as stochastic dynamical systems.
result BNN-DP provides tighter and more efficient bounds on prediction ranges compared to existing methods.
Bayesian Experience Reuse improves learning from multiple experts.
problem Learning from multiple experts with conflicting goals.
method Bayesian neural networks with shared features to model uncertainty and derive a probability distribution over expert models.
result BERS method effectively samples demonstrations from the derived distribution to reuse them in new tasks.
Paper tackles BNSL with IP, improving quality of solutions.
problem Bayesian Network Structure Learning (BNSL) with IP formulations.
method Inexact column generation using difference-of-submodular optimization.
result Improved solutions quality compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
Improves sampling efficiency for complex Bayesian models.
problem Inference challenges in hierarchical Gaussian-process models.
method Optimised Riemannian-manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) with dynamic programming.
result Significant improvement in sampling efficiency and model evidence calculation.
New method reduces parameter overhead for Bayesian neural networks.
problem High parameter overhead and difficulty of implementation in variational Bayesian neural networks.
method Constructs a general variational family for ensemble-based Bayesian neural networks that works well with batch normalization layers.
result Improves predictive accuracy and achieves almost perfect calibration on a ResNet-18 trained with ImageNet.
The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming para…
BatchBALD selects multiple informative points for deep Bayesian active learning, improving data efficiency.
problem Efficient and diverse selection of points for deep Bayesian active learning.
method Develops BatchBALD, a greedy linear-time approximation to mutual information, as an acquisition function.
result Achieves new state-of-the-art performance on benchmarks, improving data efficiency.
Improves scalability of Bayesian optimization for combinatorial spaces.
problem Optimizing expensive functions over large combinatorial spaces.
method Parametrized Submodular Relaxation (PSR) to solve AFO problems for BOCS.
result Significant improvements in scalability and accuracy for BOCS model.
It is time-consuming and error-prone to implement inference procedures for each new probabilistic model. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and having a compiler automatically generate an inference procedure for it. For this approach to be practical, it is important…
Efficiently updates beliefs with virtual observations.
problem Incremental belief updates in Bayesian models.
method Constructs weighted virtual observations to match posterior.
result Reconstructed posterior matches original posterior closely.
We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to Turing-complete probabilistic programming languages and supports accurate inference in models …
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…