New Bayesian method for spectral deconvolution with Poisson noise.
problem Estimating physical model parameters from noisy spectral data.
method Bayesian measurement framework applied to Poisson noise model.
result Clarifies relationship between measurement time and estimation limits.
Bayesian approach to robust risk measures under model uncertainty.
problem Representing robust risk measures as a single probability measure.
method Introducing two types of risk measures and analyzing their relation to robust risk measures.
result Robust risk measures can be represented by a mixture probability measure, a Bayesian approach.
Innovative inequalities for divergences with applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo.
problem Developing new inequalities for divergences.
method Introducing novel change of measure inequalities for f-divergences and α-divergences. result Applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo estimates.
New risk measures control subgroup imbalances, improving PAC-Bayesian bounds.
problem Insufficient risk bounds for subgroup imbalances in data.
method Introduce constrained f-entropic risk measures and derive PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result First disintegrated PAC-Bayesian guarantees beyond standard risks.
Introduces new metrics to measure performance of deep Bayesian neural networks.
problem Lack of specific criteria to measure performance of deep Bayesian neural networks.
method Proposes several metrics including model calibration, data rejection ability, and uncertainty divergence.
result Introduces more specific criteria for measuring deep Bayesian neural network performance.
Proposes a learned Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound for unknown measurement models.
problem Computing the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound requires full knowledge of priors and measurement distributions.
method Introduces a Physics-encoded score neural network to learn priors and measurements.
result Demonstrates improved sample complexity and interpretability through domain knowledge incorporation.
Bayesian nonparametric models improve tracking in cluttered environments.
problem Robust tracking of moving targets in high clutter environments.
method Employing Bayesian nonparametric models to estimate target and clutter measurements.
result Improved tracking performance and effectiveness in high clutter environments.
Bayesian optimization for risk measures in uncertain decision-making.
problem Optimizing functions involving risk measures in uncertain environments.
method Modeling the objective function as a Gaussian process to improve sampling efficiency.
result Substantial improvement in sampling efficiency for risk measure optimization.
New algorithm speeds Bayesian nonparametric model inference.
problem Slow inference in Bayesian nonparametric models.
method Decompose random measures into finite and infinite sub-measures; use different algorithms for each.
result Hybrid algorithm improves scalability and mixing.
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
We introduce new definitions of universal and superuniversal computable codes, which are based on a code's ability to approximate Kolmogorov complexity within the prescribed margin for all individual sequences from a given set. Such sets of sequences may be singled out almost surely with respect to certain probability …
Bayesian framework improves robustness in nonlinear regression models.
problem Measurement error, model misspecification, and distributional misspecification in regression analyses.
method Joint Dirichlet process prior on latent covariate-response distribution, updating with posterior pseudo-samples.
result Improved stability and consistency in estimators under increasing measurement error.
Paper presents a robust Kalman filter for state estimation.
problem Robust state estimation under process and measurement noise.
method Generalized Bayesian approach to a Weighted Observation Likelihood Filter (WoLF) framework.
result Achieved robust state estimation against both process and measurement noise.
Unified approach to risk measurement using Skew Exponential Power distribution.
problem Direct measurement of market risk with improved asymmetry and non-linearity.
method Unified Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Risk Measures using Skew Exponential Power distribution with semiparametric P-spline approximation.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on real data of five stock market indices.
Bayesian methods improve tracking multiple objects through dynamic dependencies.
problem Tracking multiple objects with time-varying cardinality and unordered measurements.
method Employing Bayesian nonparametric models, specifically dependent Dirichlet and Pitman-Yor processes, for state estimation and Monte Carlo sampling for trajectory learning.
result The proposed methods outperform existing algorithms in estimating the time-varying number of objects and identifying object associations.
Bayesian framework tackles measurement error in covariates.
problem Misleading inference due to corrupted covariates.
method Bayesian Nonparametric Learning framework robust to misspecification.
result General framework for Classical and Berkson error models.
Paper proposes efficient method for evaluating Bayesian models in imaging.
problem Evaluation of Bayesian models in imaging when ground truth is unavailable.
method Novel combination of Bayesian cross-validation and data fission for unsupervised model selection and misspecification detection.
result Achieved excellent selection and detection accuracy with low computational cost.
Bayesian neural network improves feature selection and prediction.
problem Improving feature selection and prediction accuracy in neural networks.
method BNN-ARD with l2-norm feature importance measure.
result Improves variable selection and predictive performance on real-world data.
Paper decomposes risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and generates predictive uncertainty measures.
problem Unclear relationships between various predictive uncertainty measures in literature.
method Bayesian estimation to decompose risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, generating different predictive uncertainty measures.
result Experimental validation confirms usefulness of derived predictive uncertainty measures for detecting out-of-distribution and misclassified instances.
Bayesian framework forecasts financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
problem Forecasting financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
method Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for model estimation; nonlinear threshold regression specification.
result The proposed framework produces competitive tail risk forecasts compared to GARCH and Realized-GARCH models.
Paper examines stability of Bayesian posterior measures using integral probability metrics.
problem Stability of Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems.
method New families of integral probability metrics for likelihood and prior perturbations.
result Constructs new stability results for Bayesian posterior measures.
SGLBO optimizes quantum circuits with fewer measurements, improving accuracy and noise resilience.
problem Efficiently optimizing parameterized quantum circuits with reduced measurement shots and noise.
method Developed SGLBO combining SGD and BO, with adaptive measurement-shot strategy and suffix averaging.
result Significantly reduces measurement-shot cost while improving accuracy and noise resilience.
Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.
problem Modeling irreversible processes in systems with uncertain histories.
method A Gibbs-type measure weighted by energy-dissipation action and observation constraints, interpreted as a Bayesian posterior.
result The measure concentrates on maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) histories, recovering classical deterministic evolution.
New method optimizes multiple points in Bayesian optimization efficiently.
problem Optimizing multiple points in expensive black-box functions.
method Reformulated BO as probability measure optimization, using convex gradient flows.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on various benchmarks compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Measures dependence between two systems using Bayesian model comparison.
problem Quantifying dependence between two systems in a dataset.
method Bayesian model comparison of independence and dependence models.
result Dependence measure quantifies evidence for dependence in data.
Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.
problem Calibrating aerodynamic models with sparse and uncertain measurements.
method Bayesian latent Gaussian process for surrogate model calibration.
result Calibrated surrogate model accurately predicts aerodynamic uncertainty.
New tools for constructing disintegrations and studying their modes.
problem Difficulty in constructing disintegrations and understanding their modes.
method Developed comprehensive mathematical tools for constructing disintegrations and analyzing their modes.
result Disagreement between restricted density and disintegration density in certain cases.
This paper analyzes DONE, an online optimization algorithm that iteratively minimizes an unknown function based on costly and noisy measurements. The algorithm maintains a surrogate of the unknown function in the form of a random Fourier expansion (RFE). The surrogate is updated whenever a new measurement is available,…
We consider the problem of recovering a function input of a differential equation formulated on an unknown domain M. We assume to have access to a discrete domain Mn={x1,…,xn}⊂M, and to noisy measurements of the output solution at p≤n of those points. We introduce a graph-based Bayesian inve…
New algorithm minimizes Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits.
problem Minimizing Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits.
method Proposes a new algorithm that directly minimizes upper bounds on Bayesian regret using conic optimization.
result Upper bounds are tight and guarantee superior performance compared to LCB.
Bayesian inference identifies model parameters from financial data to detect arbitrage opportunities.
problem Identifying model parameters from financial data to detect arbitrage opportunities.
method Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm.
result Bayesian inference can estimate unknown trend and volatility coefficients from measured data.
We evaluate the uncertainty quality in neural networks using anomaly detection. We extract uncertainty measures (e.g. entropy) from the predictions of candidate models, use those measures as features for an anomaly detector, and gauge how well the detector differentiates known from unknown classes. We assign higher unc…
The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.
Proposes a new method to measure epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Measuring epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks for out-of-distribution detection.
method Proposes measuring disagreement between logits and their pre-softmax counterparts as an epistemic uncertainty measure.
result Proposed epistemic uncertainty scores outperform mutual information and equal predictive entropy performance.
Combines multi-fidelity and asynchronous batch methods for faster experimental design.
problem Designing optimal experimental setups for battery performance.
method Algorithm combining multi-fidelity and asynchronous batch Bayesian Optimization.
result Algorithm outperforms single-fidelity batch and multi-fidelity sequential methods.
Bayesian optimization speeds up parameter reconstruction in optical nano-metrology.
problem Efficiently reconstructing parameters from time-consuming measurements in optical nano-metrology.
method Combines Bayesian optimization and curve fitting for faster, more efficient model fitting.
result The presented Bayesian Target Vector Optimization scheme achieves similar reconstruction performance with fewer model function calls.
Bayesian optimization reduces CVaR portfolio risk.
problem Minimizing CVaR under minimum expected return constraints.
method New Bayesian Optimization algorithms with a two-stage procedure.
result Significant reduction in objective function evaluations.
Bayesian calibration for BCP self-assembly models using image data and measure transport.
problem Calibrating models of BCP self-assembly from image data with aleatory uncertainty.
method Likelihood-free inference via measure transport and summary statistics.
result Expected information gains can be computed efficiently for model calibration.
Bayesian data selection framework ensures fairness in machine learning models.
problem High computational costs and limited scalability of fairness-aware methods.
method Bayesian data selection framework using generalized discrepancy measures.
result Consistently outperforms existing methods in fairness and accuracy.
Bayesian Adam method improves neural network uncertainty estimation.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Probabilistic interpretation of adaptive optimisation algorithms.
result Bayesian Adam method correctly relates learnt uncertainties to weights' predictive capabilities.
Bayesian framework improves ML classification models' uncertainty estimates.
problem Ensuring trustworthy AI predictions with explicit uncertainty quantification.
method Proposes a Bayesian framework for generative ML classification models that accounts for input measurement uncertainty.
result The BQDA model outperforms other models in terms of interpretability, explicit uncertainty modeling, and computational efficiency.
Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.
problem Quantifying the risk of agentic AI systems due to uncertain beliefs and actions.
method Representing the system as a partially observed Markov decision process with latent states, Bayesian belief updates, control-dependent losses, and tail-risk functionals.
result Develops a rigorous framework for separating uncertainty quantification from risk measurement.
New method for summarizing Bayesian mixture models using sliced Wasserstein distances.
problem Estimating the mixing measure in nonparametric Bayesian mixture models.
method Decision-theoretic approach using sliced Wasserstein distances for Gaussian mixtures.
result Effective estimation of the mixing measure and mixture density.
A new method optimizes robustness measures under input uncertainty using randomized Gaussian process upper confidence bound.
problem Optimizing robustness measures under input uncertainty.
method Randomized robustness measure GP-UCB (RRGP-UCB) that samples β from a chi-squared-based distribution.
result RRGP-UCB provides tight bounds on expected regret.
Scores measure certainty and doubt in classification predictions.
problem Quantitative uncertainty assessment in classification problems.
method Intuitive scores in Bayesian and frequentist frameworks.
result Measures assess and compare prediction quality and uncertainty.
Proposes a semi-Bayesian nonparametric estimator for MMD in GOF tests and GANs.
problem Challenges in goodness-of-fit testing for intractable models.
method Semi-Bayesian nonparametric estimator of MMD.
result Outperforms frequentist MMD-based methods in false rejection and acceptance rates.
These are the written discussions of the paper "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit" by D. Spiegelhalter et al. (2002), following the discussions given at the Annual Meeting of the Royal Statistical Society in Newcastle-upon-Tyne on September 3rd, 2013.
Bayesian approach detects changepoints with cost-sensitive data fidelity.
problem Detecting abrupt shifts in time series data with limited resources.
method Bayesian approach with active, cost-sensitive data fidelity switching.
result Information-based approach reduces total cost while maintaining accuracy.