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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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92183275366 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian hierarchical risk parity

Paper connects two portfolio methods, HRP and Minimum Variance, revealing their underlying similarity.

problem Inability to universally adopt optimization-based portfolio construction methods.
method Unifies Hierarchical Risk Parity and Minimum Variance approaches.
result Schur complementary allocation reveals the connection between HRP and Minimum Variance.

Adaptive portfolio outperforms static alternatives by 120% over 5 years.

problem Achieving strong and stable long-term performance in diversified portfolios.
method RL-BHRP: A two-level, learning-based approach that adjusts sector and stock exposures dynamically.
result Adaptive portfolio outperforms static alternatives by 120% over 5 years.

Study applies HRP to Latin American markets, showing smoother risk-return profile.

problem Lack of empirical analyses of HRP in Latin American markets.
method Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) with hierarchical clustering and recursive bisection.
result HRP portfolio outperforms Max Sharpe portfolio in NUAM markets, with smoother risk-return profile.

A new method for efficient portfolio optimization using graph structures.

problem Optimizing portfolio weights while reducing computational complexity.
method Hierarchical graph structures and Schur complement method.
result Optimal portfolio weights can be computed efficiently by inverting small submatrices.

This paper optimizes portfolios using HRP and CLA algorithms on NIFTY 50 stocks.

problem Designing an optimal stock portfolio with accurate forecasting of future returns and risks.
method Uses hierarchical risk parity and critical line algorithms on NIFTY 50 stocks.
result Hierarchical risk parity algorithm outperformed the critical line algorithm on test data.

This study compares two portfolio optimization methods on Indian stocks.

problem Designing an optimal portfolio considering stock returns and risks.
method Hierarchical Risk Parity and Eigen Portfolio approaches on NIFTY 50 sectors.
result Hierarchical Risk Parity portfolio outperforms Eigen portfolio in most sectors tested.

This study compares three portfolio optimization methods on Indian stocks.

problem Comparing portfolio optimization methods on Indian stocks.
method Mean-Variance, Hierarchical Risk Parity, and Reinforcement Learning approaches.
result Reinforcement Learning outperformed other methods in terms of Sharpe ratio.

This study compares three portfolio design approaches for stock selection.

problem Designing a profitable portfolio with precise stock returns and risks.
method Three portfolio design approaches: mean-variance portfolio, hierarchical risk parity, and autoencoder-based portfolio.
result Autoencoder portfolios outperform MVP on annual returns, but MVP is best on risk-adjusted returns.

MPM uses machine learning to switch between two portfolio strategies for better risk management.

problem Adaptive portfolio strategy selection for improved risk management.
method XGBoost learns to switch between HRP and NRP strategies.
result MPM outperforms both HRP and NRP in risk-reward profile and interpretability.

Diversified risk parity strategies outperform equally-weighted portfolios in various asset universes.

problem Finding optimal portfolio allocations that balance risk and reward.
method Integrates various reward-risk measures and generic allocation rules into diversified risk parity.
result Diversified reward-risk parity strategies exhibit higher average returns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios compared to equally-weighted risk portfolios.

Common statistical practice has shown that the full power of Bayesian methods is not realized until hierarchical priors are used, as these allow for greater "robustness" and the ability to "share statistical strength." Yet it is an ongoing challenge to provide a learning-theoretically sound formalism of such notions th…

2015-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The article develops a model for skewness risk in risk parity portfolios.

problem Managing skewness risk in asset allocation models.
method Modeling asset returns with skewness and jumps, deriving analytical formulas for risk contributions.
result Skewness-based risk parity portfolios outperform volatility-based portfolios in managing jump risks.

A new portfolio method uses NMF for risk budgeting, outperforming classical methods.

problem Portfolio diversification and risk management in crypto and traditional assets.
method Risk factor budgeting using convex Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF).
result Our method outperforms classical portfolio allocations in diversification and risk profile.

Study quantifies information borrowing in hierarchical Bayesian models.

problem Impact of shared hyperparameters on posterior inference.
method Non-asymptotic framework, nested hierarchical prior distribution, integrated risk measure.
result Deeper hierarchical models outperform nested ones under certain conditions.

Blockchain funds balance risk and return for various investors.

problem Creating diversified portfolios with risk parity for different risk appetites.
method Developed three funds (Alpha, Beta, Gamma) with distinct risk and return profiles, setting weights inversely proportional to risk.
result Blockchain enables investors to select their preferred risk-return combination and allocate wealth accordingly.

Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.

problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.

Although portfolio management didn't change much during the 40 years after the seminal works of Markowitz and Sharpe, the development of risk budgeting techniques marked an important milestone in the deepening of the relationship between risk and asset management. Risk parity then became a popular financial model of in…

2014-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.

problem Developing an optimal trend-following portfolio strategy.
method Introduces a unifying theoretical setting with autocorrelation models for covariance matrices of trends and risk premia. Specifies practical models for covariance matrices. Decomposes optimal portfolio into four basic components.
result Empirical backtests confirm overperformance of the proposed optimal portfolio.

Study high-dimensional covariance matrix estimators for complex portfolios, improving financial metrics.

problem Estimating covariance matrices in high-dimensional portfolios with nested and one-factor structures.
method Combining random matrix theory, free probability, deterministic equivalents, and two-step covariance estimators.
result Two-step estimators improve financial metrics in complex and one-factor covariance models.

New model optimizes portfolios over multiple periods using predictive control.

problem Optimizing multi-period portfolios with risk and variance objectives.
method Model Predictive Control with Mean-Variance and Risk Parity.
result 30x faster and more robust solutions compared to single period models.

Study shows physical drift affects put-call parity enforcement, not just option payoffs.

problem Inconsistency between quoted put-call parity and actual market behavior.
method Examined SPX and RUT index options, used drift-preserving GBM term to improve fit.
result Physical drift enters the enforcement of risk-neutral parity, not just option payoffs.

Proposes a risk parity portfolio optimization method that accounts for uncertainty in asset returns.

problem Risk parity portfolio optimization under uncertainty.
method Distributionally robust optimization with ambiguity set for worst-case scenario analysis.
result Distributionally robust risk parity portfolios can yield higher risk-adjusted returns.

Markowitz' celebrated optimal portfolio theory generally fails to deliver out-of-sample diversification. In this note, we propose a new portfolio construction strategy based on symmetry arguments only, leading to "Eigenrisk Parity" portfolios that achieve equal realized risk on all the principal components of the covar…

2016-10-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for fair regression under demographic parity.

problem Ensuring fairness in regression tasks subject to demographic parity constraints.
method Proposes a unified framework applicable to various regression tasks with a broad spectrum of loss functions, derived a novel characterization of the fair risk minimizer, and established theoretical consistency and convergence rates.
result Effective minimization of risk while satisfying fairness constraints across various regression settings.

In this paper we propose a cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) algorithm for solving high dimensional risk parity problems. We show that this algorithm converges and is very fast even with large covariance matrices (n > 500). Comparison with existing algorithms also shows that it is one of the most efficient algorithms.

2013-11-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Investment strategy for NYSE stocks minimizes market correlation.

problem Minimizing market correlation for steady returns.
method Combining momentum, fundamentals, and analyst recommendations; feature selection; backtesting various portfolio construction methods.
result Risk parity outperformed other methods, offering higher Sharpe ratio and lower beta.

A non-trivial predictor satisfies demographic parity and equalizes group risks in regression.

problem Achieving fairness in regression models while maintaining equal risks across groups.
method Provided an explicit example of a non-constant predictor satisfying Demographic Parity and Equal Group-Wise Risks.
result First explicit construction of a non-constant predictor satisfying both fairness notions.

Any optimization algorithm based on the risk parity approach requires the formulation of portfolio total risk in terms of marginal contributions. In this paper we use the independence of the underlying factors in the market to derive the centered moments required in the risk decomposition process when the modified vers…

2014-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

FSL-BDP models time-to-default without centralizing data, improving privacy mechanisms in federated settings.

problem Traditional credit risk models ignore default timing and violate data-protection rules.
method Federated Survival Learning with Bayesian Differential Privacy (FSL-BDP).
result FSL-BDP improves privacy mechanisms in federated settings, outperforming classical DP in most clients.

CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.

problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.

This paper extends risk parity to continuous-time, solving risk budgeting problems.

problem Achieving robust risk across different assets in continuous-time.
method Characterizing risk contributions and solving risk budgeting problems using continuous-time terminal variance.
result Risk contributions and risk budgets can be represented as predictable processes in continuous-time.

The paper tackles fair set-valued classification under demographic parity constraints.

problem Set-valued classification can amplify discriminatory bias, especially in multiclass settings.
method Proposes two strategies: an oracle-based method and a proxy method, both aiming to satisfy demographic parity and expected size constraints.
result Established distribution-free convergence rates and excess-risk bounds for both methods.

Bayesian framework improves financial risk management and compliance.

problem Uncertainty in financial risk forecasting and compliance.
method Integrated Bayesian analytics framework for precise uncertainty quantification.
result Proposed DLM model produces more accurate VaR estimates compared to baseline models.

Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction refines ICP for better scalability and prior integration.

problem Improving computational scalability and invariance testing for causal inference.
method Bayesian Hierarchical structure to test invariance under heterogeneous data.
result Demonstrated improved scalability and potential as an alternative to ICP.

Posterior regularization enhances Bayesian hierarchical mixture clustering by improving node separation.

problem High nodal variance in BHMC trees, leading to weak separation between nodes at higher levels.
method Employing Posterior Regularization to impose max-margin constraints on nodes at every level.
result Improves cluster separation in BHMC models, enhancing overall model performance.

This work analyzes Gibbs samplers for Bayesian hierarchical models without dimensionality constraints.

problem Analyzing convergence properties of Gibbs samplers for Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Using Bayesian asymptotics and total variation mixing times, the study provides dimension-free convergence results.
result Dimension-free convergence results for Gibbs samplers targeting hierarchical models under random data-generating assumptions.

We relax demographic parity in regression by enforcing parity at quantile levels and score thresholds.

problem Enforcing full distributional fairness in regression can lead to substantial accuracy loss.
method Introduce (\ell, Z)-fair predictor, derive closed-form solutions, and develop post-processing algorithm.
result The risk gap to the continuous optimum vanishes as the grid is refined, and we enable targeted fairness corrections.

Credit risk analysis improved with a joint model for spatial and temporal effects.

problem Predicting borrower's time-to-event with spatial and temporal covariates.
method Spatio-Temporal Joint Model (STJM) using Bayesian hierarchical approach and INLA.
result Spatial effects improve joint model performance, but spatio-temporal interactions have less impact.

New methods incorporate alpha signals into portfolio construction, improving performance.

problem Signal-blindness in existing portfolio construction methods.
method Introduces three methods: HRP-μ\mu, HRP-Σμ\Sigma\mu, and CRISP.
result CRISP at intermediate γ\gamma consistently outperforms other methods.