Adaptive AI delegation framework for dynamic decision authority allocation.
problem Dynamic allocation of decision authority to AI-generated recommendations under evolving evidence quality and uncertainty.
method Formulated as a Governance-Aware POMDP, using Bayesian inference for informational state estimation and sequential optimization for authority allocation.
result Sequential Bayesian governance provides the strongest general-purpose policy across AI-quality regimes, adapting to evolving evidence.
Bayesian autoencoders discover physics from noisy data.
problem Challenges in identifying governing equations and coordinates from noisy, low-data real-world data.
method Bayesian SINDy autoencoders with hierarchical Bayesian sparsifying prior and adaptive empirical Bayesian method.
result Better physics discovery with lower data and fewer training epochs, along with valid uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
Sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for estimating interaction kernels in Motsch-Tadmor model.
problem Data-driven identification of asymmetric interaction kernels in the Motsch-Tadmor model.
method Variational framework reformulating kernel identification as a subspace identification problem; sparse Bayesian learning algorithm with informative priors.
result Accurate, robust, and interpretable estimation of interaction kernels across various noise levels and data regimes.
New framework learns physics from output measurements only.
problem Learning governing physics from only output measurements.
method Stochastic calculus, sparse learning, Bayesian statistics, Euler Maruyama scheme.
result Potential to identify governing physics from sparse, noisy, incomplete data.
Paper proposes government indemnification for AI risks to solve judgment-proof problem.
problem Uninsurable risks from AI, especially existential risks, create a judgment-proof problem.
method A government-provided, mandatory indemnification program using risk-priced fees and Bayesian Truth Serum.
result The approach better leverages private information and signals risk mitigation efforts.
Proposes a framework to identify and correct model-form errors in nonlinear systems.
problem Model-form errors in nonlinear dynamical systems due to unknown or approximated governing equations.
method Uses a hybrid approach combining machine learning and Bayesian filtering to estimate and correct model-form errors.
result Improves the predictive capability of known but approximate governing equations for nonlinear dynamical systems.
Bayesian model learns physics laws from data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty in discovering governing physical laws from data.
method Bayesian approach with leaf and root modules, Gaussian process for operators, automatic differentiation.
result Quantifies reliability of learned physics laws and propagates uncertainty.
MAntRA combines machine learning and Bayesian methods for time-dependent reliability analysis of unknown systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with unknown governing physics.
method Combines machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and stochastic integration to discover and analyze SDEs from data.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of MAntRA on three numerical examples, indicating its potential for in-situ and heritage structure analysis.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian PINNs optimize loss weights for PDEs and data.
problem Optimizing loss weights in physics-informed neural networks.
method Laplace approximation for efficient model evidence computation.
result Unified Bayesian setting for PDEs and noisy measurements.
Specifying utility functions is a key step towards applying the discrete choice framework for understanding the behaviour processes that govern user choices. However, identifying the utility function specifications that best model and explain the observed choices can be a very challenging and time-consuming task. This …
StatFEM uses low-rank approximations to scale Bayesian statFEM for high-dimensional problems.
problem Model misspecification and scalability in high-dimensional physical systems.
method Low-rank approximation of covariance matrix, Bayesian filtering, sparse data reconstruction.
result Reconstructs sparsely observed data-generating processes with minimal loss of information.
Bayesian updating is modeled as a dynamical system, revealing learning rate laws.
problem Modeling Bayesian inference as a dynamical system.
method Formulated Bayesian updating as a continuous dynamical system, solving for trajectories in information geometry.
result Learning rate is governed by a 1 / T 1/T 1/ T power-law when the Cramér-Rao bound is saturated. We present an application of deep generative models in the context of partial-differential equation (PDE) constrained inverse problems. We combine a generative adversarial network (GAN) representing an a priori model that creates subsurface geological structures and their petrophysical properties, with the numerical so…
Bayesian neural networks explore rare fluctuations for better feature learning.
problem Understanding rare but dominant fluctuations in Bayesian neural networks.
method Large-deviation theory and joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels.
result Posterior rate function optimization reveals data-dependent kernel selection.
Novel digital twin for complex systems improves performance.
problem Lack of practical implementation details for stochastic nonlinear MDOF systems.
method Decouples time-scales, uses physics-based model, Bayesian filtering, and machine learning.
result Excellent performance of proposed digital twin framework validated by examples.
Scaling laws govern predictive uncertainties in deep learning models.
problem Understanding predictive uncertainties in deep learning models.
method Empirical analysis and approximate Bayesian inference on vision and language tasks.
result Scaling laws exist for various measures of predictive uncertainty in deep learning models.
Bayesian-SINDy learns differential equations from noisy data quickly.
problem Learning correct model equations from limited and noisy data.
method Bayesian-SINDy framework using Gaussian approximations.
result Bayesian-SINDy is more robust and accurate in learning correct model equations from noisy data.
Maximizes robustness in Bayesian experimental design under model uncertainty.
problem Brittleness of Bayesian experimental design under model misspecification.
method Formulates as a max--min game, uses Sibson's α-MI, and adopts PAC-Bayes framework.
result Establishes robust belief update and conditional information gain measure.
Generative approach speeds hyperparameter tuning for machine learning models.
problem Computational infeasibility of cross-validation and difficulty of fully Bayesian hyper-parameter learning.
method Combines optimization-based approximations and amortization techniques.
result Rapid evaluation of hyper-parameters over grids or ranges, supporting predictive tuning and uncertainty quantification.
Paper discovers structural dynamics equations from only acceleration data.
problem Discovering equations from only acceleration measurements in structural dynamics.
method Library-based approach with Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) prioritizing parsimonious models.
result Efficacy demonstrated in four structural dynamics examples, including linear and nonlinear systems.
A government has to finance a risk for its population. It shares the charges among the population with a fixed scale based on economic criteria. Various organisms have to collect and to redistribute fairly the subsidies. Under these conditions, when the size of the organisms is varied, the distribution's laws of the cr…
BOSS optimizes string inputs using string kernels and genetic algorithms.
problem Optimizing string inputs with constraints.
method Bayesian optimization over string kernels and genetic algorithms.
result Significantly improved optimization across various string constraints.
Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters governing the properties of this nonparametric representation. The Bayesian formalism e…
Unified Bayesian framework for PTA data analysis tackles hierarchical model issues.
problem Hierarchical Bayesian modeling challenges in PTA data analysis.
method Reparameterization strategy using Normalizing Flows (NFs) and i-nessai nested sampler.
result Improved statistical robustness and computational efficiency in PTA analysis.
Study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression using variational inference.
problem High-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with product priors.
method Non-linear large deviations theory and variational inference.
result Unique optimizer in variational problem governs posterior distribution under separation condition.
The PC algorithm is a popular method for learning the structure of Gaussian Bayesian networks. It carries out statistical tests to determine absent edges in the network. It is hence governed by two parameters: (i) The type of test, and (ii) its significance level. These parameters are usually set to values recommended …
The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal ensembling methodology, which we prove allows the ensemble to perform Bayesian inf…
A new method discovers equations from data using Bayesian and kernel techniques.
problem Discovering equations from data is hard due to sparsity and noise.
method Kernel regression for function estimation and Bayesian spike-and-slab prior for uncertainty quantification.
result KBASS method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on benchmark tasks.
A new method tackles Bayesian inverse problems with complex PDEs.
problem Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations and high-dimensional priors.
method Domain-decomposed variational auto-encoder Markov chain Monte Carlo (DD-VAE-MCMC) method.
result The method efficiently solves Bayesian inverse problems in parallel and low-dimensional latent spaces.
SIP framework discovers governing equations in uncertain systems.
problem Discovering governing equations in systems with input variability and noisy data.
method SIP framework treats unknown coefficients as random variables and infers their posterior distribution by minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result SIP consistently identifies correct equations and lowers coefficient error by 82% relative to SINDy.
A novel hierarchical Bayesian approach to Federated Learning reduces data exposure and improves convergence rates.
problem Data privacy and convergence in Federated Learning.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and block-coordinate descent optimization.
result The proposed algorithm converges to an optimal solution with a rate of O ( 1 / t ) O(1/\sqrt{t}) O ( 1/ t ) and guarantees vanishing generalization error. This paper studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in …
DeepONets combine neural networks with physics constraints for PDEs and parameter estimation.
problem Estimating parameters in PDEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) integrated with Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets) for Bayesian inference.
result Robust and accurate solutions with comprehensive uncertainty quantification.
The paper compares Bayesian uncertainty to MAP estimator in random features regression.
problem Comparing Bayesian uncertainty to MAP estimator in random features regression.
method Analyzing the variance of the posterior predictive distribution and comparing it to the risk of the MAP estimator.
result Asymptotic agreement between Bayesian uncertainty and MAP estimator under specific signal-to-noise ratios and sample sizes.
Bayesian approach optimizes in-context learning for state space models.
problem Optimizing in-context learning for state space models.
method Bayesian optimal sequential prediction over latent sequence tasks.
result Bayesian optimal predictor converges to posterior predictive mean.
BLADE uses Bayesian methods to discover complex systems from scarce data.
problem Efficiently discovering governing equations of complex dynamical systems from limited data.
method Combines replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin Monte Carlo with active learning.
result Reduces measurement requirements by 60% for Lotka-Volterra and 40% for Burgers' equation.
BayPOD-AL learns reduced-order models from high-fidelity data efficiently.
problem Capturing dynamics of complex systems with large training datasets.
method Bayesian active learning based on uncertainty-aware POD.
result BayPOD-AL reduces computational cost and improves model accuracy.
Paper provides robustness bounds for GNNs against adversarial attacks.
problem Adversarial robustness of GNNs for graph-related tasks.
method PAC-Bayesian framework applied to GCN and MP-GNN.
result Spectral norms of diffusion matrix and weights govern robustness.
A novel diffusion method for Bayesian posterior sampling with theoretical guarantees.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian inversion.
method Diffusion-based posterior sampling using Langevin dynamics and PnP framework.
result The method converges even for multi-modal posterior distributions with theoretical error bounds.
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
Paper predicts stock volatility using ESG news, showing deep learning's effectiveness.
problem Predicting stock volatility using ESG news.
method ESG news extraction, news representations, and Bayesian inference of deep learning models.
result Deep learning models predict stock volatility better than traditional methods.
EDRBO optimizes Bayesian optimization with continuous contexts using ensemble models and robust methods.
problem Bayesian optimization with unknown and continuous contextual distributions leads to suboptimal results.
method EDRBO uses ensemble surrogate models and Wasserstein ball ambiguity sets to handle uncertainty and maintain computational tractability.
result EDRBO achieves sublinear cumulative regret guarantees of order O ( γ T T ) \mathcal{O}(γ_T \sqrt{T}) O ( γ T T ) . Neural operators correct PDE residuals to improve BIP solutions.
problem Reducing error in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems with neural operators.
method Error correction using PDE residuals to improve neural operator approximation.
result Trained neural operators with error correction achieve a quadratic reduction in approximation error.
GABI learns geometry from diverse systems to improve Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inversion of physical systems with varying geometries.
method Geometric Autoencoders for Bayesian Inversion (GABI) learns geometry-aware priors from large datasets.
result GABI yields comparable predictive accuracy to deterministic methods and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification.
A new method learns posterior and predictive distributions together, reducing computational cost.
problem Sequential two-stage Bayesian inference is computationally expensive.
method Amortized variational inference targeting posterior-predictive distribution.
result Efficient online inference with more accurate predictive distributions.