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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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87174260347 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian consistency

This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making con…

2019-11-04abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper revisits and improves on a Bayesian relevance vector machine method for small sample sizes.

problem Statistical modeling with small sample sizes relative to the number of covariates.
method Introduces a new class of global-local priors and provides theoretical properties.
result Results on posterior consistency and contraction rates are provided.

Proposes a method to learn sparse deep neural networks with theoretical guarantees.

problem Over-parameterized deep neural networks cause training, prediction, and interpretation difficulties.
method Frequentist-like method for sparse DNNs under Bayesian framework.
result Consistent sparse DNNs with at most O(n/log(n))O(n/\log(n)) connections.

The paper optimizes LLM accuracy by stopping early based on consistent answers.

problem Improving LLM accuracy in math and reasoning problems.
method Bayesian stopping policy to save on sampling costs, tracking only the L-1 most frequent answer counts.
result The L=3 stopping policy is sufficient for asymptotic optimality and significantly reduces inference costs.

Bayesian DDR models complex multivariate distributions.

problem Modeling relationships between multivariate distributions with differing dimensions.
method Generalized Bayesian framework using sliced Wasserstein distance and MALA for inference.
result Posterior consistency and robust fits demonstrated in simulations and real data.

Adaptive Bayesian quadrature (ABQ) is a powerful approach to numerical integration that empirically compares favorably with Monte Carlo integration on problems of medium dimensionality (where non-adaptive quadrature is not competitive). Its key ingredient is an acquisition function that changes as a function of previou…

2019-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian method improves predictions in overparameterized nonlinear regression.

problem Understanding overparameterization in nonlinear regression models.
method Bayesian framework with adaptive prior considering data spectral structure.
result Posterior contraction established for generalized linear and single-neuron models, demonstrating prediction consistency.

A key challenge for modern Bayesian statistics is how to perform scalable inference of posterior distributions. To address this challenge, variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. VB methods tend to be faster while achieving comparabl…

2017-05-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the …

2016-07-07abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods for parameter estimation in mechanistic models using data-consistent inversion.

problem Parameter estimation bias in Bayesian analysis for mechanistic models.
method Data-consistent inversion methods based on rejection sampling, MCMC, GANs, and constrained optimization.
result Improved parameter estimation without bias from uninformative priors.

CCE improves anomaly detection metrics by measuring both confidence and consistency.

problem Existing anomaly detection metrics lack discriminative power, hyperparameter dependency, and robustness to perturbations.
method CCE uses Bayesian estimation to quantify uncertainty and constructs global and event-level confidence and consistency scores.
result CCE demonstrates strict boundedness, robustness, and linear time complexity.

Develops variational Bayesian neural network for complex biomedical applications.

problem High computational cost of Markov Chain Monte Carlo in BNN.
method Variational Bayes inference for posterior consistency and classification accuracy.
result Developed statistical theory for posterior consistency and prediction accuracy.

Bayesian method recovers causal structure in SEMs with equal error variances.

problem Recovering causal structure in SEMs with equal error variances.
method Bayesian DAG selection method using g-priors and the key property of minimum expected squared errors.
result The method consistently recovers the true graph without additional distributional assumptions.

Bayesian model infers factor dimensionality and sparse loading matrix adaptively.

problem Inference of high-dimensional sparse factor model with varying sparsity and factor dimensions.
method Adaptive Bayesian sparse factor model with posterior concentration.
result Posterior distribution asymptotically concentrates on true factor dimensionality and sparsity.

sBayFDNN bridges deep learning and functional data analysis for complex, structured data.

problem Challenges in functional data analysis, especially for complex, continuously structured data.
method Sparse Bayesian functional deep neural network (sBayFDNN) that learns adaptive functional embeddings and interpretable region selection.
result First theoretical guarantees for a Bayesian deep functional model, ensuring reliability and statistical rigor.

Bayesian networks are typically faithful, with implications for causal inference.

problem Determining the typicality of faithfulness in Bayesian networks.
method Analysis of Bayesian networks over a given DAG, parametrized by conditional exponential families, and nonparametric conditional densities.
result The faithful Bayesian networks are dense and open with respect to the total variation metric, extending existing results for specific classes of Bayesian networks.

Paper improves Bayesian regret bounds for Thompson Sampling in reinforcement learning.

problem Improving Bayesian regret bounds for Thompson Sampling in reinforcement learning.
method Using a discrete set of surrogate environments and posterior consistency analysis, the authors derive an upper bound of order O(Hdl1T)O(H\sqrt{d_{l_1}T}).
result The derived upper bound of O(Hdl1T)O(H\sqrt{d_{l_1}T}) is a significant improvement over previous bounds.

Bayesian framework improves reliability and consistency of model explanations.

problem Inconsistent and unreliable explanations from state-of-the-art methods.
method Developed a novel Bayesian framework for generating local explanations with associated uncertainty.
result Generated explanations are consistent, stable, and provide credible intervals for feature importances.

New algorithm optimizes Bayesian network learning from Gaussian data.

problem Learning Bayesian networks from Gaussian observational data.
method Proposes a coordinate descent algorithm for 0\ell_0-penalized maximum likelihood estimation.
result The algorithm converges to a coordinate-wise minimum and achieves optimal objective value as sample size increases.

We formalize the problem of learning interdomain correspondences in the absence of paired data as Bayesian inference in a latent variable model (LVM), where one seeks the underlying hidden representations of entities from one domain as entities from the other domain. First, we introduce implicit latent variable models,…

2018-06-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian networks with latent variables are characterized and their likelihoods compared.

problem Characterizing and comparing likelihoods of Bayesian networks with latent variables.
method Characterized likelihood function and empirical Bayesian network. Proved dominance of global maximum likelihood from empirical model.
result The global maximum likelihood of the original Bayesian network is attained if and only if parameters are consistent with empirical model.

CNN-F uses generative feedback to improve neural networks' robustness to perturbations.

problem Neural networks' vulnerability to input perturbations like noise and attacks.
method Enforces self-consistency in neural networks by incorporating generative recurrent feedback.
result CNN-F shows significantly improved adversarial robustness compared to conventional CNNs.

Paper analyzes consistency of Bayesian and machine learning methods for hierarchical parameter estimation.

problem Learning hierarchical parameters in complex and real-world problems.
method Empirical Bayes and Kernel Flow approaches.
result Consistency results for Matérn-like model on the torus, and comparison of algorithms.

Optimizes portfolio construction using Bayesian methods and variational techniques.

problem Balancing reward and risk in portfolio construction.
method Bayesian decision-theoretic formulation, saddle-point problem, variational Bayes relaxation, efficient algorithm, provable convergence.
result Proves statistical consistency of proposed decision with optimal Bayesian decision.

Study on Dirichlet process mixtures for clustering consistency.

problem Consistency of clustering with Dirichlet process mixtures.
method Analysis of posterior distribution as sample size increases, focusing on consistency for the number of clusters.
result Consistency for the number of clusters can be achieved with a properly adapted concentration parameter in a Bayesian setting.

Develops a new Bayesian inference method for discrete data.

problem Computational challenges in discrete state spaces, especially intractable likelihoods.
method Uses a discrete Fisher divergence to update beliefs about model parameters, circumventing the intractable normalising constant.
result Establishes statistical properties of the generalised posterior and proposes a calibration approach.

We study how to communicate findings of Bayesian inference to third parties, while preserving the strong guarantee of differential privacy. Our main contributions are four different algorithms for private Bayesian inference on proba-bilistic graphical models. These include two mechanisms for adding noise to the Bayesia…

2015-12-22abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper addresses metaconsistency in Bayesian inference for metastable systems.

problem Inference for metastable systems may not be consistent, but can be metaconsistent over large but finite time intervals.
method Introduces metaconsistency in a Bayesian framework, discusses its relation to spectral properties of model dynamics.
result Metaconsistency can be exploited to infer sub-systems efficiently from larger systems.

Paper introduces IO-NPF for efficient Bayesian experimental design.

problem Efficient Bayesian experimental design in non-exchangeable settings.
method Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF) for non-Markovian state-space models.
result IO-NPF achieves O(T2)\mathcal{O}(T^2) computational complexity, improving efficiency.

SOLBP extends efficient inference to uncertain Bayesian networks.

problem Inference in uncertain Bayesian networks with second-order probabilities.
method Extends Loopy Belief Propagation to second-order Bayesian networks.
result Generates inferences consistent with sum-product networks, more efficient and scalable.