Bayesian method for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
problem Estimating uncertainties in autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
method Recursive Bayesian estimation via message passing in a factor graph.
result Produces full posterior distributions for autoregressive coefficients and noise precision.
Optimizes Gaussian process hyperparameters using Bayesian autoregression.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for Matérn kernel temporal Gaussian processes.
method Recursive Bayesian estimation for autoregressive parameters.
result Outperforms traditional optimization methods in runtime and accuracy.
Bayesian method estimates Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive processes.
problem Estimating Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive Gaussian processes.
method Bayesian approach to estimate Kronecker graphical models.
result Effectiveness demonstrated through numerical experiments and real-world data application.
Alternative sampling method for autoregressive models using Langevin dynamics.
problem Efficiently sampling from autoregressive models.
method Initialize sequences with white noise and follow Langevin dynamics on global log-likelihood.
result Parallelizes and generalizes sampling process for autoregressive models.
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the classical framework have been proposed to better account for asymmetry and local non-l…
Transformers can simulate MLE for Bayesian network sequences.
problem Understanding transformers' capabilities in Bayesian network sequence generation.
method In-context maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for autoregressive sequence generation.
result A simple transformer model can estimate Bayesian network probabilities and generate new samples.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.
BAVART model combines VAR and BART for non-linear forecasting.
problem Overly restrictive linearity assumption in VAR models.
method Combining VAR with Bayesian additive regression trees (BART).
result BAVART model yields highly competitive forecasts.
Bayesian method tests Granger causality in functional time series.
problem Testing Granger causality between functional time series.
method Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM) and Bayes Factor.
result Captures Granger causality between yield curves and weather conditions.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
The paper develops fast Bayesian methods for estimating huge PVARs with competitive forecasts.
problem Computational and statistical issues in estimating PVARs with many parameters.
method Integrated rotated Gaussian approximations, exploiting domestic over international information, and fast approximations for international coefficients.
result Produces competitive forecasts quickly using a huge world economy model.
New approach uses autoregressive models to explore and quantify uncertainty in decision-making.
problem Quantifying and exploring uncertainty in online decision-making.
method Reformulates uncertainty as missing future outcomes, training autoregressive models for next-outcome prediction.
result Establishes a reduction from online learning to offline next-outcome prediction, controlling Bayesian regret by sequence prediction loss.
Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.
problem Variable selection and lagged error term identification in time series models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors, two-stage MCMC algorithm.
result Posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, improved predictive performance.
VB approach for dynamic network models improves efficiency and accuracy.
problem Estimating dynamic network models in large-scale systems.
method Variational Bayesian inference for network autoregression.
result VB approach detects proper active structures and achieves similar or better accuracy.
New MIF architecture improves posterior approximations in Bayesian models.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex hierarchical models.
method Combines VIP and autoregressive flow with prior information and hierarchical ordering.
result Empirically, MIF delivers tighter posterior approximations and state-of-the-art performance.
Bayesian models forecast COVID-19 hospitalizations at single sites.
problem Forecasting daily COVID-19 hospitalizations at a single hospital.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with generalized Poisson likelihood and autoregressive/Gaussian process latent processes.
result Demonstrated superior performance compared to baselines in public datasets.
Bayesian VAR model discovers Granger causality with uncertainty-aware binary graphs.
problem Discovering Granger causal relations from multivariate time-series data.
method Bayesian Vector AutoRegression with factorised Granger-Causal Graphs.
result Our method achieves better performance, especially in low-data regimes.
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step procedure is adopted. The first step is the conditional inference on the autoregressi…
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
problem Joint distributions over multiple predictions from set-based models.
method Causal autoregressive buffer that caches context and captures dependencies.
result Up to 20x faster joint sampling and density evaluation, up to 7x lower memory usage.
Bayesian method detects change points in time series data.
problem Detecting significant regime shifts in time series data.
method Bayesian autoregressive model with time-varying parameters.
result Enhanced estimate accuracy and forecasting power.
Pricing and hedging rainbow options using Bayesian MS-VAR process.
problem Pricing and hedging rainbow options under varying economic conditions.
method Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process to model regime-switching economic variables.
result Model provides a simpler and more economic variable-dependent approach for rainbow options pricing and hedging.
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such scenarios. In particular, a random process generated by the autoregressive moving…
We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. When the data is generated from a finite order autoregression, the Bay…
New approaches improve uncertainty quantification in autoregressive models for sequence data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in autoregressive models for exchangeable sequences.
method Study of inferential and architectural biases for autoregressive models, focusing on multi-step inference.
result Custom architectures are necessary for multi-step inference to ensure exchangeability.
Agents learn and control complex mechanical systems through shared memories.
problem Controlling multi-joint dynamical systems.
method Coupled autoregressive active inference agents using Bayesian filtering and minimizing expected free energy.
result Demonstrated learning and control of a double mass-spring-damper system.
Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.
problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.
A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and the latent conditional expectile. Nonlinear threshold specification is further i…
The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) from …
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all parameters at once. We demonstrate that how the HMC reproduces the GARCH paramete…
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hiera…
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data in order to learn a model of the likelihood in the region of high posterior dens…
DBNs improve VaR forecasting compared to traditional models, but SVaR forecasts are conservative.
problem Forecasting VaR and SVaR using dynamic Bayesian networks.
method DBN framework applied to S&P 500 index returns, comparing to autoregressive models and historical simulation.
result DBNs achieve comparable VaR forecasting accuracy to historical simulation models, but SVaR forecasts remain conservative.
Bayesian framework uses context trees for efficient time series modeling.
problem Building flexible and interpretable mixture models for real-valued time series.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modelling with context trees and autoregressive models.
result The methods outperform state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world experiments.
Variational Causal Networks approximate Bayesian inference over causal structures.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal structure inference from finite data.
method Parametric variational family over DAGs, using Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for tractable learning.
result Approximation of the true posterior over DAGs is demonstrated to be good.
State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variati…
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
This research shows that under certain mathematical conditions, a threshold autoregressive model (TAR) can represent the leverage effect based on its conditional variance function. Furthermore, the analytical expressions for the third and fourth moment of the TAR model are obtained when it is weakly stationary.
Deep generative models are rapidly gaining traction in medical imaging. Nonetheless, most generative architectures struggle to capture the underlying probability distributions of volumetric data, exhibit convergence problems, and offer no robust indices of model uncertainty. By comparison, the autoregressive generative…
SymCircuit learns PC structure via entropy-regularized RL, improving inference efficiency and accuracy.
problem Greedy algorithms in PC structure learning lead to suboptimal solutions.
method Entropy-regularized reinforcement learning to train a learned generative policy for PC structure inference.
result SymCircuit learns the optimal policy as a tempered Bayesian posterior, improving inference efficiency and accuracy.
ARTree uses deep learning to infer tree topologies efficiently.
problem Efficient phylogenetic inference from tree topologies.
method Deep autoregressive model based on graph neural networks (GNNs).
result ARTree provides a flexible family of distributions over tree topologies.
Paper proposes a new sparse VAR model for high-dimensional time series.
problem Non-identifiability, computational intractability, and difficulty of interpretation for high-dimensional time series.
method Sparse infinite-order VAR model with ℓ1-regularized estimation methods. result Greater statistical efficiency and interpretability achieved with little loss of temporal information.
Paper presents a method for imputing and forecasting structural response from incomplete sensor data.
problem Missing sensor data in structural health monitoring (SHM).
method Incremental Bayesian tensor learning for spatiotemporal missing data reconstruction and forecasting.
result The proposed method achieves accurate and robust imputation and prediction even with high rates of missing data.
Paper proposes ARPHMM for fault detection and prognosis in aero-engines.
problem Fault detection and prognosis in aero-engines using sensor data.
method Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov Model (ARPHMM) with prior knowledge integration.
result Model estimates remaining useful life and degradation level.
Bayesian MS-VAR process improves option pricing models.
problem Improving option pricing models for better accuracy.
method Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-BVAR) process with risk-neutral valuation.
result Derived pricing formulas for various options.
Proposes a method to generate text that adheres to logical constraints.
problem Generating text that respects logical constraints is hard for autoregressive models.
method Bayesian conditioning to draw samples subject to a constraint, considering the entire sequence and inducing a local, factorized distribution.
result Our approach generates samples that closely approximate the target distribution and are guaranteed to satisfy the constraints.
Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs) and give an upper bound on the approximation error of such models. The resulting …
Despite the fact that they do not consider the temporal nature of data, classic dimensionality reduction techniques, such as PCA, are widely applied to time series data. In this paper, we introduce a factor decomposition specific for time series that builds upon the Bayesian multivariate autoregressive model and hence …