Proposes TAGI for efficient Gaussian inference in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Efficient inference in Bayesian neural networks with complex architectures.
method Analytical method for tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI).
result Matches performance of gradient-based methods with O(n) computational complexity. Proposes efficient Bayesian logistic regression for large sparse datasets.
problem Infeasibility of theoretical Bayesian methods for large sparse feature sets.
method Low complexity analytical approximations for sparse online logistic and probit regressions.
result Empirical results show superior performance compared to more complex methods.
Dropout has recently emerged as a powerful and simple method for training neural networks preventing co-adaptation by stochastically omitting neurons. Dropout is currently not grounded in explicit modelling assumptions which so far has precluded its adoption in Bayesian modelling. Using Bayesian entropic reasoning we s…
We present and implement two algorithms for analytic asymptotic evaluation of the marginal likelihood of data given a Bayesian network with hidden nodes. As shown by previous work, this evaluation is particularly hard for latent Bayesian network models, namely networks that include hidden variables, where asymptotic ap…
Stochastic VB improves nonlinear model inference speed and accuracy.
problem Bayesian inference of nonlinear models from noisy data.
method Stochastic Variational Bayesian (VB) inference for nonlinear models.
result Stochastic VB achieves comparable parameter recovery to analytical solution but is faster.
The paper uses regression models to predict COVID-19 spread and its stock market impact.
problem Predicting and understanding the impact of COVID-19 on stock markets.
method Logistic curve model with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics.
result Different crises have different impacts on the same stocks.
Neural network approximates Bayesian decision-making parameters.
problem Analytical intractability of Bayesian decision-making in naturalistic tasks.
method Neural amortization of Bayesian actor model.
result Efficient gradient-based inference of Bayesian actor model parameters.
Analytical method approximates ELBO gradient in clutter problem.
problem Clutter problem in Bayesian networks with Gaussian likelihood.
method Reparameterization trick, local approximation of likelihood factors.
result Good accuracy and linear computational complexity compared to classical methods.
Paper presents a new method for Bayesian deep learning that scales to Atari games.
problem Training neural networks on complex environments like Atari games is challenging.
method Adapted temporal difference Q-learning to work with Bayesian inference.
result TAGI allows for analytical inference of neural network parameters, achieving performance comparable to gradient-based methods.
The process of dynamic state estimation (filtering) based on point process observations is in general intractable. Numerical sampling techniques are often practically useful, but lead to limited conceptual insight about optimal encoding/decoding strategies, which are of significant relevance to Computational Neuroscien…
Paper shows how to infer hidden states in neural networks analytically.
problem Intractability of Bayesian inference for neural networks.
method Leverage tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) for hidden states inference.
result Demonstrates inference of hidden states through constraints for various applications.
Bayesian graph contrastive learning improves uncertainty quantification for graph analytics.
problem Uncertainty quantification for node representations in graph contrastive learning.
method Proposes a Bayesian framework to learn stochastic encoders representing nodes as distributions, providing uncertainty estimates.
result Significant improvement in performance on benchmark datasets compared to existing methods.
SmallML predicts customer churn for SMEs with small data, improving accuracy by 24.2 points.
problem AI exclusion of SMEs due to data scale mismatch.
method Bayesian transfer learning with hierarchical pooling and conformal prediction.
result 96.7% AUC on 100 obs SMEs, 24.2 point improvement over logistic regression.
In this paper, we propose a new method of Bayesian measurement for spectral deconvolution, which regresses spectral data into the sum of unimodal basis function such as Gaussian or Lorentzian functions. Bayesian measurement is a framework for considering not only the target physical model but also the measurement model…
Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
method Viewing deep ensembles as an approximate Bayesian method and specifying corresponding assumptions.
result Improved approximation leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, potentially more reliable predictions.
QB-Vine extends Quasi-Bayesian methods to high dimensions using vine copulas.
problem Efficiently predicting high-dimensional distributions without sampling.
method Recursive Quasi-Bayesian construction for marginals and vine copulas for dependence modeling.
result QB-Vine is a fully non-parametric density estimator with analytical form and convergence rate independent of dimension.
Unified framework for DRO and DTA using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Combining DRO and DTA under ambiguity.
method Unified framework using DP and HDPs, with outlier robustness.
result Favorable performance in prediction accuracy and stability.
Paper proposes a surrogate model for efficient experience rating in large insurance portfolios.
problem Inexpensive and transparent computation of Bayesian premiums for large insurance portfolios.
method Surrogate modeling approach using likelihood-based summary statistics.
result Reduced computational burden and provided a transparent way of computing Bayesian premiums.
The paper analyzes methods for sparse Bayesian regression in nonlinear system identification.
problem Learning sparse models in Bayesian regression with nonlinear applications.
method Two classes of methods: regularization and thresholding based, built on automatic relevance determination (ARD).
result Analytical demonstration of favorable performance with sparse solutions in linear problems.
Bayesian Perceptron offers fully Bayesian neural networks without complex computations.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Bayesian inference framework for perceptron training and predictions in closed-form.
result Analytical expressions for perceptron's output and weight learning provided.
Study how depth affects inference in deep Bayesian neural networks.
problem Understanding how depth impacts inference in overparameterized linear Bayesian neural networks.
method Interpreting finite deep linear Bayesian neural networks as scale mixtures of Gaussian process predictors.
result Advances analytical understanding of how depth affects inference in a simple class of Bayesian neural networks.
Bayesian PINNs optimize loss weights for PDEs and data.
problem Optimizing loss weights in physics-informed neural networks.
method Laplace approximation for efficient model evidence computation.
result Unified Bayesian setting for PDEs and noisy measurements.
Bayesian taut splines estimate modes in probability densities.
problem Estimating the number of modes in probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference with flexible kernel estimators and compositional splines.
result The new method provides more accurate results than traditional approaches.
Wide stochastic networks show Gaussian behavior and improve training with PAC-Bayesian methods.
problem Analyzing and training over-parameterised neural networks with large width.
method Establishing Gaussian behavior for a stochastic architecture, applying PAC-Bayesian training.
result PAC-Bayesian training on large but finite-width networks outperforms standard methods.
Bayesian framework improves financial risk management and compliance.
problem Uncertainty in financial risk forecasting and compliance.
method Integrated Bayesian analytics framework for precise uncertainty quantification.
result Proposed DLM model produces more accurate VaR estimates compared to baseline models.
The combination of the re-parameterization trick with the use of variational auto-encoders has caused a sensation in Bayesian deep learning, allowing the training of realistic generative models of images and has considerably increased our ability to use scalable latent variable models. The re-parameterization trick is …
Paper presents a method to accurately quantify neural network uncertainty without sampling.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks for reliability and robustness.
method Sample-free moment propagation technique for mean vectors and covariance matrices.
result Analytic solution for covariance of nonlinear activation functions.
Study shows TAR model captures leverage effect in financial series.
problem Capturing leverage effect in financial series.
method Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with Bayesian approach.
result Analytical expressions for TAR model moments derived.
metabeta uses neural networks to speed up Bayesian mixed-effects regression.
problem Bayesian mixed-effects regression is computationally expensive.
method metabeta is a neural network model that pre-trains to estimate posterior distributions.
result metabeta achieves comparable performance to MCMC at a fraction of the time.
A new method combines ANN and Laplace for fast Bayesian inference in ODE models.
problem Bayesian inference for ODE systems with non-analytical solutions is computationally expensive.
method Hybrid approach using ANN for tractable likelihood and Laplace approximation.
result Effective posterior inference with improved computational cost compared to traditional methods.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
Bayesian kernel regression improves functional output prediction.
problem Functional output regression in supervised learning.
method Kernel methods, leveraging covariance structure within function values.
result Enhanced prediction accuracy and handling of high-dimensional nonlinearity.
We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled partial order, the conditional probabilities of interest are computed exactly. We…
Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inf…
With the advent of GPU-assisted hardware and maturing high-efficiency software platforms such as TensorFlow and PyTorch, Bayesian posterior sampling for neural networks becomes plausible. In this article we discuss Bayesian parametrization in machine learning based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, specifically disc…
DABS uses a policy network to select experiments in high-dimensional design spaces.
problem Adaptive factorial screening in high-dimensional discrete design spaces.
method DABS learns a policy network offline to sequentially select experiments, incorporating sparsity and interactions via a spike-and-slab prior.
result DABS achieves superior accuracy and scalability over classical and Bayesian baselines under tight experimental budgets.
Bayesian Pseudo Label Selection reduces overfitting in semi-supervised learning.
problem Overfitting in pseudo-label selection for semi-supervised learning.
method BPLS, a Bayesian framework that approximates the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples.
result BPLS outperforms traditional PLS methods, especially in high-dimensional data.
Parallelized Bayesian quadrature improves sample efficiency and inference.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference and model evidence calculation.
method Batch Bayesian quadrature with kernel recombination for parallel sampling.
result Empirically, outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
We present a novel approach for estimating conditional probability tables, based on a joint, rather than independent, estimate of the conditional distributions belonging to the same table. We derive exact analytical expressions for the estimators and we analyse their properties both analytically and via simulation. We …
Student-t processes have recently been proposed as an appealing alternative non-parameteric function prior. They feature enhanced flexibility and predictive variance. In this work the use of Student-t processes are explored for multi-objective Bayesian optimization. In particular, an analytical expression for the h…
Bayesian algorithms improve crowdsourcing with label and instance constraints.
problem Efficiently labeling large datasets with additional human annotator information.
method Developed Bayesian algorithms for semi-supervised crowdsourced classification under label and instance constraints.
result Improved performance compared to unsupervised crowdsourcing on various datasets.
The Dirichlet process and its extension, the Pitman-Yor process, are stochastic processes that take probability distributions as a parameter. These processes can be stacked up to form a hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian model. In this article, we present efficient methods for the use of these processes in this hierar…
A conjugate Bayesian method detects change points in Hawkes processes efficiently.
problem Non-conjugacy between Hawkes process likelihood and prior causes inefficiency in change point detection.
method Data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method.
result The conjugate method is more accurate and efficient than non-conjugate methods.
New methods make Bayesian inference feasible for complex cognitive models.
problem Bayesian inference is hard for complex, unknown models.
method Amortized neural network estimators for simulation-based inference.
result Effort in training networks amortizes over multiple uses.
Video analytics requires operating with large amounts of data. Compressive sensing allows to reduce the number of measurements required to represent the video using the prior knowledge of sparsity of the original signal, but it imposes certain conditions on the design matrix. The Bayesian compressive sensing approach r…
Bayesian inference for wide neural networks using Edgeworth expansion.
problem Analyzing the non-Gaussian behavior of wide neural networks in Bayesian inference.
method Proposed a non-Gaussian distribution using multivariate Edgeworth expansion for finite-width neural networks.
result Derived non-Gaussian posterior distribution in Bayesian regression tasks.
Gaussian multiplicative noise is commonly used as a stochastic regularisation technique in training of deterministic neural networks. A recent paper reinterpreted the technique as a specific algorithm for approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks; several extensions ensued. We show that the log-uniform prior us…
Bayesian models can be tricked into believing false data.
problem Vulnerability of Bayesian inference to data poisoning attacks.
method Developed attacks to manipulate Bayesian posterior through deletion and replication of data.
result Demonstrated that Bayesian inference can be steered to target distributions.