Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
Few Bayesian layers near output capture model uncertainty in deep learning.
problem Capturing model uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Varying the number and position of Bayesian layers in a network, comparing performance on active learning with MNIST dataset.
result Few Bayesian layers near the output can capture model uncertainty efficiently.
Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.
problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
Paper introduces combining model and parameter uncertainty in BNNs.
problem Combining model and parameter uncertainty in scalable BNNs.
method Adapted variational inference with reparametrization for model space constraints.
result Sparsification of BNNs structure via Bayesian model averaging and selection.
Bayesian neural networks struggle with uncertainty estimates between regions.
problem Limited expressiveness of predictive uncertainty estimates in between regions.
method Compared mean-field variational inference (MFVI) with linearised Laplace approximation.
result Linearised Laplace approximation handles 'in-between' uncertainty better.
Evaluates uncertainty quality in neural networks using anomaly detection.
problem Evaluating the quality of uncertainty in neural networks.
method Extract uncertainty measures, use them as features for an anomaly detector, and compare different neural network models.
result Bayesian Dropout and OSBA provide better uncertainty information than Maximum Likelihood, and are faster.
Cooperative model disentangles data uncertainties.
problem Disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real-world data.
method Cooperatively trains a variance estimation network with a Bayesian neural network.
result Improves mean estimation and disentangles uncertainties.
Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
method Viewing deep ensembles as an approximate Bayesian method and specifying corresponding assumptions.
result Improved approximation leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, potentially more reliable predictions.
New method to assess uncertainty in Bayesian optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian optimization.
method Constructing confidence regions of the maximum point or value of the objective function.
result Unified uncertainty quantification framework for various sampling policies and stopping criteria.
Bayesian uncertainty estimation for batch normalized networks.
problem Estimating uncertainty in deep networks trained with batch normalization.
method Equivalence of batch normalization to Bayesian inference; conventional architectures with uncertainty estimates.
result Significant improvement in uncertainty estimation quality compared to baselines.
New method improves uncertainty estimation in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem Underestimation of predictive uncertainty in Neural Linear Models (NLMs).
method Proposes a novel training method to capture useful predictive uncertainties and incorporate domain knowledge.
result Traditional training procedures for NLMs can drastically underestimate uncertainty in data-scarce regions.
Work proposes a new framework to improve uncertainty estimation in deep Bayesian models.
problem Traditional training procedures underestimate uncertainty in NLMs, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Introduces a novel training framework that captures useful predictive uncertainties for out-of-distribution inputs.
result Demonstrates that traditional methods for NLMs significantly underestimate uncertainty and propose a new framework to address this issue.
Bayesian Layers adds uncertainty to neural networks, enabling faster experimentation and scalability.
problem Enabling neural networks to quantify uncertainty in predictions.
method Drop-in replacements for common layers, capturing uncertainty over weights, activations, etc.
result Bayesian Layers can fit large models like 5-billion parameter Bayesian Transformers.
Bayesian classification improves with explicit aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of aleatoric uncertainty representation in Bayesian classification.
method Explicitly account for aleatoric uncertainty using a Dirichlet observation model.
result Explicit aleatoric uncertainty improves performance of Bayesian neural networks.
Bayesian approach improves activity recognition accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of predictive uncertainty in multimodal audiovisual activity recognition.
method Uncertainty aware multimodal Bayesian fusion framework combining deterministic and variational layers.
result Improved precision-recall AUC by 10.2% on MiT dataset.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve uncertainty estimation in deep learning.
problem Lack of robustness and sensitivity to out-of-distribution samples in DNNs.
method Empirical evaluation of Bayesian Neural Networks against point estimate DNNs.
result Bayesian Neural Networks provide better uncertainty quantification and performance.
New method explains sensitivity of test data uncertainty in Bayesian inference.
problem Widespread belief that test data similarity reduces epistemic uncertainty.
method Information-theoretic decomposition of predictive uncertainty.
result Defines sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities.
Bayesian Scattering offers a simple baseline for image data uncertainty.
problem Lack of interpretable, mathematically grounded uncertainty quantification methods for image data.
method Coupling wavelet scattering transform with a simple probabilistic head.
result Bayesian Scattering provides sensible uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
Bayesian framework for encoding uncertainty and inducing sparsity.
problem Handling uncertainty and inducing sparsity in statistical models.
method General Bayesian framework with explicit encoding of uncertainty and sparsity-inducing approach.
result Effective in linear and logistic regression, and Bayesian neural networks.
Dropout is shown to be a Bayesian approximation, offering insights into model uncertainty.
problem Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Interpreting dropout as a Bayesian approximation for neural networks.
result Dropout's robustness to overfitting can be explained by its Bayesian interpretation.
Proposes a new method to measure epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Measuring epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks for out-of-distribution detection.
method Proposes measuring disagreement between logits and their pre-softmax counterparts as an epistemic uncertainty measure.
result Proposed epistemic uncertainty scores outperform mutual information and equal predictive entropy performance.
Bayesian CNN estimates uncertainty in bone age prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in age estimation models.
method Variational Inference for Bayesian CNNs.
result Model uncertainty distinguished from data uncertainty.
Bayesian neural networks enhance uncertainty estimation in graph contrastive learning.
problem Uncertainty in graph contrastive learning when labeled data is scarce.
method Variational Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty estimation.
result Improved uncertainty estimation and downstream performance on semi-supervised node-classification tasks.
Enhances Bayesian model comparison with a probabilistic framework for meta-uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in posterior model probabilities (PMPs) when derived from finite data.
method Develops a fully probabilistic approach to quantify and represent meta-uncertainty over PMPs.
result Demonstrates utility in various BMC contexts, including regression, MCMC, and neural networks.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
Bayesian Neural Networks help quantify uncertainty in deep learning predictions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning predictions.
method Bayesian statistics applied to neural networks.
result Design, implementation, training, and evaluation of Bayesian Neural Networks.
Unified Bayesian framework for quantifying GNN uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in GNN predictions due to modeling errors and measurement uncertainty.
method Unified Bayesian framework with aleatoric uncertainty from probabilistic links and feature noise, and epistemic uncertainty from model parameter distribution. Uses Assumed Density Filtering for aleatoric uncertainty and Monte Carlo dropout for model parameter uncertainty.
result Bayesian model performs similarly to frequentist model and provides additional uncertainty information.
Bayesian EnKF improves sentence comprehension uncertainty modeling.
problem Uncertainty in human language comprehension, especially with ambiguous inputs.
method Bayesian framework using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for uncertainty quantification.
result Enhanced model's ability to approximate human cognitive processing with linguistic ambiguities.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
Bayesian models improve trustworthiness in ICU by providing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions can lead to catastrophic medical decisions.
method Bayesian Neural Network and predictive uncertainty analysis.
result Bayesian models can mitigate prediction loss and identify out-of-domain examples.
Bayesian analysis reveals epistemic uncertainty as a key diagnostic for delayed generalization in in-context learning.
problem Delayed generalization in in-context learning from few examples.
method Bayesian perspective, modular arithmetic tasks, approximate Bayesian techniques, spectral mechanism analysis.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, indicating a practical diagnostic of generalization.
Bayesian fairness tackles fairness in uncertain probabilistic models.
problem Fairness in decision making when probabilistic models are uncertain.
method Introducing Bayesian fairness, using balance fairness definition.
result Bayesian approach leads to fair decision rules under high uncertainty.
Bayesian deep learning detects adversarial examples by capturing model uncertainty.
problem Vulnerability of deep learning models to adversarial examples.
method Principled Bayesian methods to capture model uncertainty in prediction.
result Bayesian neural networks are uncertain in predictions for adversarial perturbations.
Framework optimizes multiple objectives considering input uncertainty.
problem Efficiently optimizing multiple objectives with input uncertainty.
method Robust Gaussian Process model and two-stage Bayesian optimization process.
result Found a robust Pareto frontier considering input uncertainty.
This paper connects noise injection to Bayesian inference for neural networks, improving model uncertainty.
problem Improving the reliability and confidence of neural network predictions through uncertainty quantification.
method Introducing noise into neural network parameters during training and inference to estimate prediction uncertainty.
result The MCNI method outperforms baseline models in regression and classification tasks.
Bayesian autoencoders quantify anomaly uncertainty for safer machine learning.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in autoencoders for anomaly detection.
method Formulated Bayesian autoencoders to quantify epistemic and aleatoric anomalies.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of BAEs on benchmark and real datasets.
Bayesian CNN improves MRI stroke diagnosis accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis for medical decision-making.
method Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with aggregation methods for patient-level diagnoses.
result Bayesian CNN achieved 95.33% accuracy on 511 patients, 2% higher than non-Bayesian.
Bayesian neural networks simplified with input augmentation.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Layer-wise input augmentation to induce uncertainty distributions.
result State-of-the-art performance in uncertainty representation.
Calibrates deep learning models to produce accurate uncertainty estimates.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in Bayesian and probabilistic models.
method Simple procedure inspired by Platt scaling to calibrate regression algorithms.
result Consistently produces well-calibrated credible intervals improving model performance.
Bayesian deep learning tackles uncertainty in high-dimensional systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic partial differential equations.
method Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) for efficient sampling of posterior distributions.
result The method efficiently handles high-dimensional problems with almost independent computational cost.
Modified ensembling scheme provides Bayesian posterior estimation in neural networks.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Derive and implement a modified ensembling scheme that estimates Bayesian posterior.
result Consistent estimator of Bayesian posterior in wide neural networks.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
The paper develops scalable variational inference for Bayesian neural networks under model and parameter uncertainty.
problem Combining structural and parameter uncertainties in scalable Bayesian neural networks.
method Adapted variational inference with reparametrization for model space constraints.
result Comparable accuracy with sparse inference compared to ordinary BNNs.
Propagating uncertainty improves deep learning model performance.
problem Improving computer-aided detection of pulmonary nodules.
method Multi-stage Bayesian CNN architecture with uncertainty propagation.
result Improves overall performance in terms of accuracy and model confidence.
Variational Bayes simplifies Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks' outputs.
method Approximates intractable Bayesian integrals using variational methods.
result Comparison of various approximation methods in literature.
Paper decomposes risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and generates predictive uncertainty measures.
problem Unclear relationships between various predictive uncertainty measures in literature.
method Bayesian estimation to decompose risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, generating different predictive uncertainty measures.
result Experimental validation confirms usefulness of derived predictive uncertainty measures for detecting out-of-distribution and misclassified instances.