A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep learning models have become more common, RNNs have been used to forecast increasingl…
Improved neural network predicts tropical storm trajectories and Bayesian intervals.
In natural language processing, a lot of the tasks are successfully solved with recurrent neural networks, but such models have a huge number of parameters. The majority of these parameters are often concentrated in the embedding layer, which size grows proportionally to the vocabulary length. We propose a Bayesian spa…
In this work we explore a straightforward variational Bayes scheme for Recurrent Neural Networks. Firstly, we show that a simple adaptation of truncated backpropagation through time can yield good quality uncertainty estimates and superior regularisation at only a small extra computational cost during training, also re…
Bayesian optimization reduces RNN architecture search time.
Paper derives PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI systems learning from empirical data.
Frequentist method estimates uncertainty in RNNs without altering architecture.
Bayesian model predicts sequences better than LSTMs by identifying underlying rules.
Bayesian RNNs improve safety in RL tasks.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) stand at the forefront of many recent developments in deep learning. Yet a major difficulty with these models is their tendency to overfit, with dropout shown to fail when applied to recurrent layers. Recent results at the intersection of Bayesian modelling and deep learning offer a Bay…
In medicine, both ethical and monetary costs of incorrect predictions can be significant, and the complexity of the problems often necessitates increasingly complex models. Recent work has shown that changing just the random seed is enough for otherwise well-tuned deep neural networks to vary in their individual predic…
PAC-Bayes bound for stable RNNs in time-series data.
Proposes ECLSTM for more accurate RUL estimation from time series data.
We define Recurrent Gaussian Processes (RGP) models, a general family of Bayesian nonparametric models with recurrent GP priors which are able to learn dynamical patterns from sequential data. Similar to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), RGPs can have different formulations for their internal states, distinct inference…
NAS for financial time series forecasts using chain-structured architectures.
Exponentially smoothed RNNs improve industrial forecasting.
Despite the recent popularity of deep generative state space models, few comparisons have been made between network architectures and the inference steps of the Bayesian filtering framework -- with most models simultaneously approximating both state transition and update steps with a single recurrent neural network (RN…
Recent work has shown that topological enhancements to recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can increase their expressiveness and representational capacity. Two popular enhancements are stacked RNNs, which increases the capacity for learning non-linear functions, and bidirectional processing, which exploits acausal informa…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are powerful sequence modeling tools. However, when dealing with high dimensional inputs, the training of RNNs becomes computational expensive due to the large number of model parameters. This hinders RNNs from solving many important computer vision tasks, such as Action Recognition in …
In this paper, we explore different ways to extend a recurrent neural network (RNN) to a \textit{deep} RNN. We start by arguing that the concept of depth in an RNN is not as clear as it is in feedforward neural networks. By carefully analyzing and understanding the architecture of an RNN, however, we find three points …
This paper studies a theoretical pruning method for RNNs to reduce computational costs.
Lyapunov analysis improves RNN performance prediction.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been extraordinarily successful for prediction with sequential data. To tackle highly variable and noisy real-world data, we introduce Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks (PF-RNNs), a new RNN family that explicitly models uncertainty in its internal structure: while an RNN re…
In this work, we propose a novel recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The proposed RNN, gated-feedback RNN (GF-RNN), extends the existing approach of stacking multiple recurrent layers by allowing and controlling signals flowing from upper recurrent layers to lower layers using a global gating unit for each pai…
Proposes Fusion Recurrent Neural Network for sequence data.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful and effective for processing sequential data. However, RNNs are usually considered "black box" models whose internal structure and learned parameters are not interpretable. In this paper, we propose an interpretable RNN based on the sequential iterative soft-thresholding al…
Efficient RNN algorithm guarantees convergence in online learning.
While Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are famously known to be Turing complete, this relies on infinite precision in the states and unbounded computation time. We consider the case of RNNs with finite precision whose computation time is linear in the input length. Under these limitations, we show that different RNN va…
RNNs struggle with in-context retrieval, while Transformers excel.
Time series with non-uniform intervals occur in many applications, and are difficult to model using standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We generalize RNNs to have continuous-time hidden dynamics defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), a model we call ODE-RNNs. Furthermore, we use ODE-RNNs to replace t…
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) attained a good performance in hyperspectral sensing image (HSI) classification, but CNNs consider spectra as orderless vectors. Therefore, considering the spectra as sequences, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been applied in HSI classification, for RNNs is skilled at dealing …
Elman-type RNNs converge to globally optimal solutions in the mean-field regime.
To understand the fundamental trade-offs between training stability, temporal dynamics and architectural complexity of recurrent neural networks~(RNNs), we directly analyze RNN architectures using numerical methods of ordinary differential equations~(ODEs). We define a general family of RNNs--the ODERNNs--by relating t…
Deep neural networks have shown promising results for various clinical prediction tasks such as diagnosis, mortality prediction, predicting duration of stay in hospital, etc. However, training deep networks -- such as those based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) -- requires large labeled data, high computational res…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have long been recognized for their potential to model complex time series. However, it remains to be determined what optimization techniques and recurrent architectures can be used to best realize this potential. The experiments presented take a deep look into Hessian free optimization…
New kernels boost RNN performance on non-time-series data.
Lyapunov exponents help understand RNN stability.
Study proves deep narrow RNNs can approximate any function, with minimum width independent of data length.
Hamiltonian RNN controls hidden states gradient for long-term dependencies.
We introduce MinimalRNN, a new recurrent neural network architecture that achieves comparable performance as the popular gated RNNs with a simplified structure. It employs minimal updates within RNN, which not only leads to efficient learning and testing but more importantly better interpretability and trainability. We…
Multivariate time-series modeling and forecasting is an important problem with numerous applications. Traditional approaches such as VAR (vector auto-regressive) models and more recent approaches such as RNNs (recurrent neural networks) are indispensable tools in modeling time-series data. In many multivariate time ser…
RNNs struggle with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients, but we found a way to optimize training.
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which are a powerful scheme for modeling temporal and sequential data need to capture long-term dependencies on datasets and represent them in hidden layers with a powerful model to capture more information from inputs. For modeling long-term dependencies in a dataset, the gating mecha…
Study shows challenges in converting RNNs to FSMs due to computational complexity.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful models of sequential data. They have been successfully used in domains such as text and speech. However, RNNs are susceptible to overfitting; regularization is important. In this paper we develop Noisin, a new method for regularizing RNNs. Noisin injects random noise into t…
Mathematical methods characterize RNNs' asymptotics as hidden units and data grow.
The exploding and vanishing gradient problem has been the major conceptual principle behind most architecture and training improvements in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) during the last decade. In this paper, we argue that this principle, while powerful, might need some refinement to explain recent developments. We r…