Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's predictions is interpreted as its epistemic uncertainty. The appeal of ensembling…
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48 results for “Bayesian NNs”
Qualitative analysis of MC dropout for NN model uncertainty.
problem Measuring uncertainty in neural network models.
method Mathematical formulation of Monte Carlo dropout and its benefits/costs in NN models.
result Potential benefits and associated costs of using MC dropout in NN models.
Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for …
Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can estimate the uncertainty in predictions, as opposed to non-Bayesian neural networks (NNs). However, BNNs have been far less widely used than non-Bayesian NNs in practice since they need iterative NN executions to predict a result for one data, and it gives rise to prohibitive computat…
Bayesian Perceptron offers fully Bayesian neural networks without complex computations.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Bayesian inference framework for perceptron training and predictions in closed-form.
result Analytical expressions for perceptron's output and weight learning provided.
The -nearest neighbor classification method (-NNC) is one of the simplest nonparametric classification methods. The mutual -NN classification method (MNNC) is a variant of -NNC based on mutual neighborship. We propose another variant of -NNC, the symmetric -NN classification method (SNNC) based …
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters and data. Ensembling NNs provides an easily implementable, scalable method for …
Bayesian neural networks with functional priors improve surrogate modeling in mechanics.
problem Challenges in integrating prior knowledge and quantifying uncertainties in high-dimensional NN parameter spaces.
method Anchored ensembling to integrate a priori information and learn low-rank correlations between NN parameters.
result Effective transfer of knowledge between function-space and parameter-space priors improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
PAC-Bayesian bounds improve understanding of K-NN classifier performance.
problem Improving the understanding of K-NN classifier's generalization error.
method PAC-Bayesian analysis applied to K-NN classifier in kernel space.
result PAC-Bayesian bounds provide a function of the number of redundant training examples.
Bayesian deep ensembles improve prediction accuracy in various settings.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of deep ensembles in out-of-distribution settings.
method Introducing a randomised, untrainable function to each ensemble member, enabling a posterior predictive distribution interpretation.
result Bayesian deep ensembles make more conservative predictions and outperform standard ensembles in various tasks.
In this paper we present an algorithm for rapid Bayesian analysis that combines the benefits of nested sampling and artificial neural networks. The blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference (BAMBI) algorithm implements the MultiNest package for nested sampling as well as the training of an artificial neural netwo…
A fast method for neural networks that provides uncertainty measures.
problem Inability of neural networks to provide reliable uncertainty measures for new situations.
method Moment propagation (MP) for analytically approximating MC dropout.
result Single-shot MC dropout approximation as fast as NNs with similar uncertainty measures.
Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is to exploit the Bayesian approach by using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Anothe…
Bayesian Neural Networks improve uncertainty reasoning in NNs.
problem Frequentist implementation of NNs cannot reason about uncertainty in predictions.
method Introduces Bayesian Neural Networks and compares approximate inference methods.
result Future research can improve on current methods of inference.
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and deterministic predictors often performs well in practice. To fill this gap, we develop…
NOMU improves neural network uncertainty estimation.
problem Estimating model uncertainty for neural networks with limited data.
method Introduces NOMU, a two-sub-NN architecture with a designed loss function.
result NOMU outperforms state-of-the-art methods in regression and Bayesian optimization.
Study on MC dropout in wide neural networks and its convergence to Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the behavior of Monte Carlo dropout in wide neural networks.
method Rigorously studied the limiting distribution of wide untrained NNs under dropout, proving convergence to Gaussian processes. Investigated correlations and non-Gaussian behavior in finite width NNs.
result Wide untrained neural networks under dropout converge to Gaussian processes for fixed sets of weights and biases.
Optimizes neural network for aerodynamic predictions with Bayesian Optimization.
problem Building efficient and accurate predictive models for aerodynamic performance.
method Bayesian Optimization for hyper-parameter tuning of a lightweight neural network.
result Significant improvement in accuracy (MAPE drops from 0.1433% to 0.0163%) and efficiency.
This study assesses model influence on RL algorithm performance.
problem Unclear contribution of model-based RL algorithms to recent progress.
method Established a set of models for comparison, including NNs, BNNs, GPs, and ensembles.
result Concrete Dropout NN shows superior performance across benchmark tasks.
BayesAdapter turns pre-trained NNs into reliable BNNs with minimal overhead.
problem Scalability, accessibility, and reliability of Bayesian neural networks.
method Bayesian fine-tuning of pre-trained deterministic NNs to variational BNNs.
result BayesAdapter produces more reliable posteriors with less training overhead.
Unified predictive uncertainty disentangled using deep split ensembles.
problem Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in NNs for real-world applications.
method Deep split ensemble approach using multivariate Gaussian mixture model.
result Inherently well-calibrated models with high flexibility to group features.
Learning probability distributions on the weights of neural networks (NNs) has recently proven beneficial in many applications. Bayesian methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer an elegant framework to reason about NN model uncertainty. However, by assuming independent Gaussian priors for the i…
Neural Networks (NNs) have been extensively used for a wide spectrum of real-world regression tasks, where the goal is to predict a numerical outcome such as revenue, effectiveness, or a quantitative result. In many such tasks, the point prediction is not enough: the uncertainty (i.e. risk or confidence) of that predic…
NK bandits improve performance on nonlinear tasks.
problem Improving performance on nonlinear sequential decision tasks.
method Proposed NK bandits using neural kernels to guide policies.
result NK bandits achieve state-of-the-art performance.
This paper analyzes deep Stable neural networks, showing convergence rates under different growth settings.
problem Analyzing the behavior of deep Stable neural networks as width increases.
method Large-width asymptotic analysis and convergence rates for fully connected feed-forward deep Stable NNs.
result The rescaled deep Stable NN converges weakly to a Stable SP under joint growth, with sup-norm convergence rates established.
SPIDER uses deep neural networks for streaming tensor factorization.
problem Lack of effective approach for deep tensor factorization of streaming data.
method Bayesian neural networks with spike-and-slab prior, Taylor expansions, moment matching, and EPI framework.
result Effective incremental updates for latent factors and NN weights.
New method quantifies uncertainty for near-optimal ML algorithms.
problem Uncertainty quantification for near-Bayes optimal ML algorithms.
method Developed a martingale posterior to recover Bayesian posterior from ML algorithms.
result Proved practical uncertainty quantification method applicable to general ML algorithms.
Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty quantification. On the other hand, it was recently shown that ensembles of NNs, which belo…
Compression of Neural Networks (NN) has become a highly studied topic in recent years. The main reason for this is the demand for industrial scale usage of NNs such as deploying them on mobile devices, storing them efficiently, transmitting them via band-limited channels and most importantly doing inference at scale. I…
The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal ensembling methodology, which we prove allows the ensemble to perform Bayesian inf…
A new method for Bayesian neural networks using probabilistic backpropagation.
problem Approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method Variational Expectation Propagation (VEP) with probabilistic backpropagation.
result Efficient algorithm for approximate integration over posterior distributions.
Revisits online Laplace methods for neural networks, showing they are sound under certain conditions.
problem Online Laplace methods violate the Laplace approximation's critical assumption.
method Re-derives online Laplace methods, showing they target a variational bound on a mode-corrected variant of the Laplace evidence.
result Online Laplace and its mode-corrected counterpart share stationary points that satisfy the Laplace method's assumption.
Attention mechanisms in deep learning become Gaussian process-like as the number of heads increases.
problem Understanding the behavior of attention mechanisms in deep learning models.
method Extending the equivalence between wide neural networks and Gaussian processes to attention architectures.
result Multi-head attention architectures behave as Gaussian processes as the number of heads tends to infinity.
Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computa…
Global sensitivity analysis improves BNN hyperparameter selection for accurate uncertainty quantification.
problem Difficulties in obtaining accurate uncertainty quantification with Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs).
method Global sensitivity analysis of BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings.
result Many hyperparameters interact to affect both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.
problem The impact of prior choice on Bayesian neural networks' ability to identify unknowns.
method Evaluation of different prior distributions on classification tasks using BNNs and NNs with Monte Carlo dropout.
result Prior choice significantly impacts BNNs' ability to identify unknowns, affecting true and false positive rates.
Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian NNs to estimate a continuous target as well as its associated evidence in order …
Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions, which can be very harmful when this arises in safety critical applications. In …
RS-NN predicts belief functions for classification, improving accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
problem Improving confidence in machine learning predictions for safety-critical applications.
method Random-Set Neural Network (RS-NN) using random set mathematics.
result RS-NN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and OoD detection.
Novel method for scalable neural network-based blackbox optimization.
problem Scalability challenges in high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization.
method SNBO: Adds new samples using separate criteria for exploration and exploitation, adaptively controlling the sampling region.
result SNBO achieves better function values with 40-60% fewer function evaluations and reduced runtime.
DER uses neural nets to better handle uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in safety-critical domains.
method Uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs) with evidential distributions.
result DER shows promise over traditional methods but is a heuristic.
Improved SBI with neural networks for complex models.
problem Accurate inference for complex models with intractable likelihood.
method Structured mixtures of probability distributions for likelihood and posterior approximation.
result Accurate posterior inference with smaller computational footprint.
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems.
method Learning evidential distributions for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Allows for the simultaneous extraction of both uncertainties without sampling or out-of-distribution data.
Bayesian PINNs tackle uncertainty in inverse problems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in inverse problems.
method Hierarchical Bayesian formulation of PINNs with variational inference and Monte Carlo dropout.
result Quantification of uncertainties in reconstructed images.
This work approximates finite neural networks with Gaussian processes, providing error bounds and applications in prior selection.
problem Approximating finite neural networks with Gaussian processes for error bounds and uncertainty quantification.
method Iterative approximation of neural network layers as mixtures of Gaussian processes, using optimal transport and Gaussian processes.
result The ability to return a mixture of Gaussian processes that is ε-close to the neural network at a finite set of input points.
We propose a simple approach which, given distributed computing resources, can nearly achieve the accuracy of -NN prediction, while matching (or improving) the faster prediction time of -NN. The approach consists of aggregating denoised -NN predictors over a small number of distributed subsamples. We show, bot…
Randomly trained neural networks can generalize well if there's a simpler underlying teacher model.
problem Why randomly trained neural networks generalize well despite interpolating training data.
method Examined a random neural network that interpolates training data and showed it generalizes well if there's a simpler underlying teacher model.
result Randomly trained neural networks can generalize well if there's a simpler underlying teacher model.
Bayesian Optimization improves machine learning for detecting network attacks.
problem Detecting network attacks to secure critical information.
method Bayesian Optimization for tuning machine learning algorithms (SVM-RBF, RF, k-NN).
result The proposed framework achieves high accuracy and low false alarms.