KT models struggle with student concept drift, but BKT remains the most stable.
problem Impact of student concept drift on KT models.
method Applied four KT models to five academic years of data.
result KT models generally degrade in performance with concept drift, BKT remains stable.
PSI-KT improves KT accuracy and interpretability in learning materials.
problem Optimizing learning materials selection and timing for understanding and retention.
method Hierarchical generative approach using Bayesian inference.
result Superior multi-step predictive accuracy and scalable inference.
A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.
problem Accurate and explainable prediction of student skill success rates in real-time.
method Performance Distribution Tracing (PDT) using a Dynamic Bayesian Network with continuous random variables.
result PDT provides both explainability and accuracy in real-time predictions of student skill success rates.
Paper derives constraints for Bayesian Knowledge Tracing parameters.
problem Issues with EM algorithm in BKT parameter estimation.
method From first principles, derives constraints on BKT parameter space.
result Novel algorithm respects derived constraints for parameter estimation.
Recent student knowledge modeling algorithms such as Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT) and Dynamic Key-Value Memory Networks (DKVMN) have been shown to produce accurate predictions of problem correctness within the same learning system. However, these algorithms do not attempt to directly infer student knowledge. In this pa…
Bayesian optimization is popular for optimizing time-consuming black-box objectives. Nonetheless, for hyperparameter tuning in deep neural networks, the time required to evaluate the validation error for even a few hyperparameter settings remains a bottleneck. Multi-fidelity optimization promises relief using cheaper p…
RKT model improves knowledge tracing by considering exercise relations and student forget behavior.
problem Traditional KT models fail to consider both exercise relations and student forget behavior.
method RKT model uses relation-aware self-attention to incorporate exercise relations and student forget behavior.
result RKT model outperforms state-of-the-art KT methods on real-world datasets.
Deep learning based knowledge tracing model has been shown to outperform traditional knowledge tracing model without the need for human-engineered features, yet its parameters and representations have long been criticized for not being explainable. In this paper, we propose Deep-IRT which is a synthesis of the item res…
Can machines trace human knowledge like humans? Knowledge tracing (KT) is a fundamental task in a wide range of applications in education, such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), intelligent tutoring systems, educational games, and learning management systems. It models dynamics in a student's knowledge states in …
New BNN architectures reduce computational cost for uncertainty quantification.
problem High computational cost in Bayesian neural networks.
method Partial trace-class Bayesian neural networks (PaTraC BNNs).
result Comparable uncertainty quantification with fewer parameters.
We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept knowledge over time, (ii) an…
Knowledge tracing is the task of modeling each student's mastery of knowledge concepts (KCs) as (s)he engages with a sequence of learning activities. Each student's knowledge is modeled by estimating the performance of the student on the learning activities. It is an important research area for providing a personalized…
Bayesian inference for deep neural networks using trace-class priors and MLMC.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for deep neural networks.
method Trace-class neural network priors and Multilevel Monte Carlo method.
result Optimal computational complexity for Bayesian inference of TNN models.
Knowledge tracing is a sequence prediction problem where the goal is to predict the outcomes of students over questions as they are interacting with a learning platform. By tracking the evolution of the knowledge of some student, one can optimize instruction. Existing methods are either based on temporal latent variabl…
The recent advances in computer-assisted learning systems and the availability of open educational resources today promise a pathway to providing cost-efficient, high-quality education to large masses of learners. One of the most ambitious use cases of computer-assisted learning is to build a lifelong learning recommen…
KT models improved slightly with synthetic student data.
problem Limited access to real student data and lack of diversity in public datasets.
method Simulated student data using three statistical strategies and tested on KT baselines.
result Synthetic data can lead to similar performance as real data.
Hybrid framework injects TSLM insights into GRLM for robust time-series reasoning.
problem Lack of domain-specific knowledge in large language models for time-series reasoning.
method Hybrid knowledge-injection framework combining RLVR for efficient knowledge transfer.
result Consistently outperforms existing models by 7.9%-26.1% on multivariate time-series benchmarks.
qDKT improves KT models by considering individual question outcomes.
problem Ignoring question-specific outcomes leads to inaccurate learner skill tracking.
method qDKT incorporates graph Laplacian regularization and uses a fastText-inspired initialization scheme.
result qDKT achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting learner outcomes.
Bayesian model identifies skill difficulties and student subgroups in engineering education.
problem Identifying and supporting diverse student needs in entry-level university engineering modules.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of student response data.
result Clear patterns of skill mastery and distinct student subgroups identified.
The log-determinant of a kernel matrix appears in a variety of machine learning problems, ranging from determinantal point processes and generalized Markov random fields, through to the training of Gaussian processes. Exact calculation of this term is often intractable when the size of the kernel matrix exceeds a few t…
Modeling buildings' heat dynamics is a complex process which depends on various factors including weather, building thermal capacity, insulation preservation, and residents' behavior. Gray-box models offer a causal inference of those dynamics expressed in few parameters specific to built environments. These parameters …
Ray tracing sampler improves neural network sampling efficiency and resilience.
problem Sampling neural network posterior distributions efficiently and robustly.
method Markov Chain Monte Carlo using ray tracing through likelihood space.
result Significantly higher resilience to gradient heating compared to HMC.
Bayesian neural networks improve knowledge sharing across networks.
problem Improving knowledge sharing between neural networks.
method Application of Bayesian interpretations to neural networks for feature sharing.
result Enhanced feature sharing across networks.
Framework incorporates prior knowledge into Bayesian models for data streams.
problem Effective use of prior knowledge in learning Bayesian models from streaming data.
method Proposes a novel framework that subsumes existing models for time-series data.
result Framework outperforms existing methods with a large margin.
Bayesian method transfers knowledge between brain tumor datasets.
problem Applying deep learning to small medical datasets.
method Generative Bayesian Prior network for knowledge transfer.
result Best results in Dice Similarity Coefficient for BRATS2018.
Bayesian neural networks incorporate domain knowledge through variational inference.
problem Specifying priors for Bayesian neural networks that capture domain knowledge is challenging.
method Proposes a framework for integrating domain knowledge into BNN priors through variational inference.
result BNNs with proposed domain knowledge priors outperform those with standard priors, achieving better predictive performance.
This paper studies Bayesian ranking and selection (R&S) problems with correlated prior beliefs and continuous domains, i.e. Bayesian optimization (BO). Knowledge gradient methods [Frazier et al., 2008, 2009] have been widely studied for discrete R&S problems, which sample the one-step Bayes-optimal point. When used ove…
A new method for efficient computation of Knowledge Gradient in Bayesian optimization.
problem Efficient computation of the Knowledge Gradient for Bayesian optimization.
method One-shot Hybrid KG, a new approach combining previous ideas.
result The new method is cheap to compute and preserves theoretical properties of previous methods.
DBULL learns new clusters without forgetting past knowledge in streaming unlabelled data.
problem Challenges in Unsupervised Lifelong Learning with evolving data distributions and class labels.
method Bayesian framework for incremental learning, Deep Bayesian Unsupervised Lifelong Learning (DBULL) algorithm, knowledge preservation mechanism, automatic cluster discovery.
result DBULL can progressively discover new clusters without forgetting past knowledge in unlabelled data.
ACI uses Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes from effects in complex systems.
problem Capturing instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Assimilative causal inference (ACI) leverages Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes backward from observed effects.
result ACI provides online tracking of causal roles that may reverse intermittently and reveals how far effects propagate.
Online knowledge repositories typically rely on their users or dedicated editors to evaluate the reliability of their content. These evaluations can be viewed as noisy measurements of both information reliability and information source trustworthiness. Can we leverage these noisy evaluations, often biased, to distill a…
Models leak information about their training data. This enables attackers to infer sensitive information about their training sets, notably determine if a data sample was part of the model's training set. The existing works empirically show the possibility of these membership inference (tracing) attacks against complex…
Study integrates attentional and spacing factors to improve category learning models.
problem Understanding the impact of training sequences on category learning.
method Introduced a novel integration of attentional factors and spacing into logistic knowledge tracing models.
result Enhanced model predicts students' learning outcomes better than existing models.
Enhances Bayesian learning with rule-based evolutionary techniques.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with expert knowledge and data patterns.
method Combines Bayesian inference with rule-based systems and grammatical evolution.
result Automatically derives rules from data, improving point predictions and uncertainty quantification.
Optimizes expensive experiments by incorporating expert knowledge.
problem Expensive experiments require minimizing the number of trials.
method Bayesian optimization with posterior sampling of expert knowledge.
result Demonstrates significant efficiency gains in experiments and hyperparameter tuning.
New method combines FMEA and Bayesian Network for root cause analysis in lithium-ion battery production.
problem Complex cause-effect relationships in lithium-ion battery production.
method Combining FMEA with Bayesian Network to detect and resolve inconsistencies.
result Holistic method builds large-scale cross-process Bayesian Failure Network for root cause analysis.
Differentiable relaxation for inferring partial orders from noisy linear data.
problem Inference of partial orders from linear data with noisy observations.
method Introducing a differentiable relaxation to model noisy linear extensions, replacing discontinuous precedence and feasibility with smooth surrogates.
result Smooth posterior that preserves partial-order semantics, supports gradient-based inference, and converges to hard likelihood.
Modeling infection hotspots to quantify effects of contact tracing and testing.
problem Capturing the role of infection hotspots in disease transmission.
method Temporal point process modeling framework to represent visits and disease transmission.
result Estimation of transmission rates at sites and households using Bayesian optimization.
Develops a simulation-based method to translate expert knowledge into prior distributions for Bayesian models.
problem Effective incorporation of expert knowledge into prior distributions for diverse model structures.
method Simulation-based stochastic gradient descent to learn hyperparameters of parametric priors from expert knowledge.
result Method is adaptable to various elicitation techniques and independent of model structure.
New method improves uncertainty estimation in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem Underestimation of predictive uncertainty in Neural Linear Models (NLMs).
method Proposes a novel training method to capture useful predictive uncertainties and incorporate domain knowledge.
result Traditional training procedures for NLMs can drastically underestimate uncertainty in data-scarce regions.
We propose a probabilistic framework to directly insert prior knowledge in reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms by defining the behaviour policy as a Bayesian posterior distribution. Such a posterior combines task specific information with prior knowledge, thus allowing to achieve transfer learning across tasks. The …
Continual learning aims to enable machine learning models to learn a general solution space for past and future tasks in a sequential manner. Conventional models tend to forget the knowledge of previous tasks while learning a new task, a phenomenon known as catastrophic forgetting. When using Bayesian models in continu…
Enhances model compression with multi-teacher knowledge distillation.
problem Uncertainty evaluation and diverse teacher expertise in model deployment.
method Bayesian inference and teacher-informed prior with entropy-based weighting.
result Improved predictive accuracy and robust uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian networks combine prior knowledge with data to learn causal relationships.
problem Learning causal relationships from data.
method Constructing Bayesian networks from prior knowledge and using statistical methods to improve models.
result Bayesian networks can handle missing data and learn causal relationships.
Improves transparency and incorporates prior knowledge in Gaussian Process models.
problem Challenges in understanding and expressing prior assumptions in complex Bayesian models.
method Introduces self-explaining variational posterior distributions for Gaussian Processes.
result Allows incorporation of both general and feature-specific prior knowledge.
In many applications of black-box optimization, one can evaluate multiple points simultaneously, e.g. when evaluating the performances of several different neural network architectures in a parallel computing environment. In this paper, we develop a novel batch Bayesian optimization algorithm --- the parallel knowledge…
Paper extends knowledge gradient for preferential BO, overcoming computational challenges.
problem Extending knowledge gradient to preferential BO with pairwise comparisons.
method Derive exact and analytical knowledge gradient for preferential BO.
result Exact knowledge gradient outperforms existing acquisition functions on benchmark problems.
Paper proves stability for recovering connections from holonomy traces.
problem Recovering a connection from holonomy traces on Riemannian manifolds.
method Combination of microlocal analysis and non-Abelian approximate Livsic Theorem.
result Hölder type stability estimates for holonomy inverse problem.