Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction refines ICP for better scalability and prior integration.
problem Improving computational scalability and invariance testing for causal inference.
method Bayesian Hierarchical structure to test invariance under heterogeneous data.
result Demonstrated improved scalability and potential as an alternative to ICP.
Bayesian Invariant Prediction models stable features from multi-environment data.
problem Analyzing stable features across multiple environments for better prediction and understanding.
method Developed Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP) model that encodes invariant feature indices as latent variables and infers them via posterior inference.
result BIP and its variational approximation (VI-BIP) outperform existing methods in accuracy and scalability for invariant prediction.
The paper addresses the invariance issue in Bayesian neural networks using linearized Laplace approximation.
problem Bayesian neural networks fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, leading to different posterior densities for identical functions.
method Developed a geometric view of reparameterizations and a Riemannian diffusion process to extend reparameterization invariance to neural network predictive.
result Empirically improved posterior fit through approximate posterior sampling.
Bayesian inference for neural networks improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter extensions and interacting particle systems.
result Effective methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
Transformers approximate Bayesian posteriors but not exactly.
problem Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face challenges due to task-preserving order changes in transformers.
method Showed that excess prequential code length is exactly cumulative predictive KL, decomposing expected regret into order-averaged predictor and order-averaging gain.
result Transformers approximate Bayesian posteriors but not exactly, priced by log loss.
Paper derives PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI systems learning from empirical data.
problem Characterizing predictive power of LTI systems learned from data.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI stochastic dynamical systems with inputs.
result Finite-sample error bounds for learning algorithms of LTI systems.
The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or…
Solves parameter non-identifiability in Bayesian LTI system identification.
problem Parameter non-identifiability in standard Bayesian approaches for LTI system identification.
method Embedding canonical forms of LTI systems within the Bayesian framework.
result Unlocking the use of meaningful priors and robust uncertainty estimates.
Variational inference struggles with weight symmetries in neural networks, leading to biased posteriors.
problem Weight space symmetries in neural networks cause multimodal posteriors, challenging variational inference.
method Developed a symmetrization mechanism to create permutation invariant variational posteriors.
result Symmetrized variational posteriors have a better fit to the true posterior and improved predictive performance.
This paper compares amortized methods for Bayesian posterior estimation.
problem Bayesian inference difficulties with iterative routines.
method Amortized in-context Bayesian posterior estimation using transformers and normalizing flows.
result Reverse KL estimator superior for predictive problems.
LaCIM avoids spurious correlation by modeling latent causal factors.
problem Avoiding spurious correlation in supervised learning.
method Introducing latent variables for causal prediction and optimizing over latent space.
result Improved interpretability, robustness, and prediction power on OOD scenarios.
Bayesian network learns data invariances without augmentation.
problem Learning invariances in neural networks without manual design.
method Bayesian approach infers weight-sharing schemes from data.
result Model outperforms non-invariant networks on specific tasks.
While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease labels there can be differences (e.g. "fever" may mean something different repor…
Bayesian quadrature improves integration efficiency with invariant priors.
problem Efficient numerical integration with known structure.
method Invariance priors for bijective transformations in input domain.
result Superior performance in synthetic and real-world applications.
Efficiently marginalizes over Gaussian Process kernels for better model flexibility and uncertainty.
problem Inefficient marginalization over Gaussian Process kernels for large datasets.
method Bayesian Quadrature scheme with maximum mean discrepancies and invariances between Spectral Mixture kernels.
result Achieves more accurate predictions and better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines.
Population attributes are essential in health for understanding who the data represents and precision medicine efforts. Even within disease infection labels, patients can exhibit significant variability; "fever" may mean something different when reported in a doctor's office versus from an online app, precluding direct…
Proposes a new method to approximate Bayesian predictive uncertainty.
problem Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model predictions.
method Self-supervised learning approach to approximate posterior predictive distribution.
result SSLA and ASSLA outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration.
Bayesian learning improves reliability of molecular predictions for hit compound discovery.
problem Improving reliability of machine learning predictions for virtual screening.
method Bayesian learning algorithms applied to graph neural networks.
result Bayesian learning leads to well-calibrated predictions and higher hit compound success.
Improves Bayesian predictive performance in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification gap between inferential and predictive risks.
method Develops a multi-sample loss (PACm) to bridge the gap. result Empirical study shows improved predictive distribution.
We introduce a method, KL-LIME, for explaining predictions of Bayesian predictive models by projecting the information in the predictive distribution locally to a simpler, interpretable explanation model. The proposed approach combines the recent Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) method with ideas …
New method uses unlabelled data to improve Bayesian Neural Networks.
problem Lack of ability to use unlabelled data in conventional Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Self-supervised Bayesian Neural Networks using contrastive pretraining and variational lower bound optimization.
result Prior predictive distributions capture problem semantics better and improve predictive performance.
Bayesian approach confirms no return predictability for 1926-2004 data, weak evidence for 1953-2021.
problem Investigating return predictability using Bayesian methods.
method Developed a new shrinkage type prior for a model parameter in a VAR system, compared to other estimation methods.
result Bayesian approach outperforms reduced-bias estimator in terms of size and power.
Bayesian quadrature improves conformal prediction for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment for machine learning models.
method Revisiting conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and proposing Bayesian quadrature.
result Provides interpretable guarantees and a richer representation of likely losses.
Bayesian Predictive Coding improves deep learning uncertainty quantification.
problem Limitations of maximum a posteriori and maximum likelihood estimates in predictive coding.
method Developed Bayesian Predictive Coding (BPC) that estimates a posterior distribution over network parameters.
result BPC offers comparable uncertainty quantification to existing methods in Bayesian deep learning and improves convergence properties.
Method selects the best deep learner for time-series prediction using Bayesian networks.
problem Selecting the most effective deep learning model for time-series prediction.
method Bayesian network selects deep learners based on input variables and cluster training data.
result Threshold value determines which deep learners predict time-series data robustly.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.
Bayesian framework mixes imperfect models for improved predictions.
problem Improving predictions of complex computational models in unknown domains.
method Local Bayesian Dirichlet mixing of imperfect models using the Dirichlet distribution.
result Global and local mixtures of models achieve excellent performance in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
problem Bayesian inference's computational costs and posterior predictive distribution marginalization.
method Variational Prediction learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound.
result Directly learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution without test time marginalization costs.
We consider probabilistic PCA and related factor models from a Bayesian perspective. These models are in general not identifiable as the likelihood has a rotational symmetry. This gives rise to complicated posterior distributions with continuous subspaces of equal density and thus hinders efficiency of inference as wel…
Combining Bayesian deep learning and split conformal prediction affects out-of-distribution coverage.
problem Improving out-of-distribution coverage in multiclass image classification.
method Combining Bayesian deep learning with split conformal prediction methods.
result Combining methods can reduce out-of-distribution coverage in some cases.
Improved neural network predicts tropical storm trajectories and Bayesian intervals.
problem Accurately predicting the trajectories of tropical storms to prevent damage.
method Developed an improved RNN model with dropout to predict Bayesian intervals.
result Neural network dropout values significantly affect prediction accuracy and intervals.
A centered innovation MA is equivalent to a digamma-link DARMA for bank-asset shares.
problem Predicting bank-asset shares using Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA models.
method Replacing raw additive log-ratio residuals with centered innovations in B--DARMA.
result Centered specification and digamma-link DARMA are predictively equivalent under specified conditions.
Bayesian method predicts asset returns for better portfolio optimization.
problem Uncertainty in financial markets makes traditional portfolio optimization methods unreliable.
method Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) combined with dynamic linear models.
result Predicted distribution information improves portfolio performance.
Develops BPDS for better financial portfolio decisions.
problem Model uncertainty in financial time series forecasting.
method Bayesian dynamic modelling and predictive decision synthesis.
result Improved predictive and decision outcomes compared to traditional Bayesian analysis.
Bayesian optimization enhanced with conformal prediction for better outcome reliability.
problem Uncertainty and model misspecification in Bayesian optimization.
method Conformal prediction to provide coverage guarantees and Bayesian optimization to select queries.
result Significant improvement in query coverage without sacrificing sample-efficiency.
Bayesian Neural Networks help quantify uncertainty in deep learning predictions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning predictions.
method Bayesian statistics applied to neural networks.
result Design, implementation, training, and evaluation of Bayesian Neural Networks.
Bayesian NMF model improves predictions and avoids overfitting.
problem Predicting missing values and finding hidden patterns in nonnegative data.
method Flexible and hierarchical prior for Bayesian NMF with Gibbs sampling.
result The proposed model leads to better predictions and avoids overfitting.
Novel Bayesian method for high-dimensional count data prediction.
problem Count data in high-dimensional settings requires feature selection.
method Pseudo-Bayesian framework with scaled Student prior and exponential weights.
result Strong performance compared to Lasso in various settings.
Bayesian methods often misinterpret data and asymptotic concepts.
problem Misunderstandings in Bayesian predictive inference.
method Discussion of two specific misunderstandings.
result Consequences of misinterpretations illustrated through examples.
Bayesian spatial predictive synthesis improves spatial data predictions.
problem Model misspecification and heterogeneity in spatial data.
method Bayesian ensemble methodology capturing spatially-varying model uncertainty and performance heterogeneity.
result Synthesized predictions outperform standard methods in accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
VMGP extends Gaussian processes for Bayesian meta-learning, improving uncertainty prediction.
problem Bayesian meta-learning for few-shot tasks with non-Gaussian uncertainty.
method VMGP (Variational Meta-Gaussian Processes) extends Gaussian processes to model non-Gaussian predictive posteriors.
result VMGP significantly outperforms existing Bayesian meta-learning methods on complex tasks.
Bayesian neural networks use temperature adjustments to improve predictive performance.
problem Lack of theoretical generalization guarantees for Bayesian neural networks.
method Temperature adjustments to balance likelihood and prior regularization.
result Improved predictive performance through temperature adjustments.
Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their models cannot adapt to the driving policy of the predicted target human driver. In th…
Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression coeffici…
Bayesian method improves predictions in overparameterized nonlinear regression.
problem Understanding overparameterization in nonlinear regression models.
method Bayesian framework with adaptive prior considering data spectral structure.
result Posterior contraction established for generalized linear and single-neuron models, demonstrating prediction consistency.
Review of integrating Bayesian methods with neural network-based MPC.
problem Lack of standardized benchmarks and reliable analyses in Bayesian MPC.
method Systematic analysis of Bayesian methods in neural-network-based MPC.
result Need for standardized benchmarks, ablation studies, and transparent reporting.
Improved Bayesian FL method calibrates predictions for federated learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in Bayesian FL methods for federated learning.
method β-Predictive Bayes algorithm interpolates between mixture and product of local predictive posteriors, tuning parameter β for better calibration.
result Demonstrated superior calibration compared to other baselines, even with increased data heterogeneity.