Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{é}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for an unbiased estimator. However, obtaining such MLE solution requires calculating t…
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48 results for “Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound”
Cramming method evaluates learned policies from contextual bandits efficiently.
problem Evaluating final learned policies from contextual bandit algorithms.
method On-policy evaluation using a single pass of data, ensuring consistency and asymptotic normality.
result Cramming method reduces evaluation standard error by approximately 40% compared to off-policy methods.
The article explains Rao distances and conformal mappings for 3D objects.
problem Calculating distances and preserving angles in 3D objects.
method Proposed constructions of distances and angle-preserving mappings.
result Application to virtual tourism and line integrals in complex planes.
Near-optimal confidence intervals for bounded data.
problem Online inference for sequential decision problems like A/B testing.
method Utilizing Bentkus' concentration results to improve on existing methods.
result Near-optimal confidence intervals confirmed favorable in synthetic and practical applications.
Classification of the Bounds on the Probability of Ruin for L{é}vy Processes with Light-tailed Jumpsmath.PR
In this note, we study the ultimate ruin probabilities of a real-valued L{é}vy process X with light-tailed negative jumps. It is well-known that, for such L{é}vy processes, the probability of ruin decreases as an exponential function with a rate given by the root of the Laplace exponent, when the initial value goes to …
We devise a distributional variant of gradient temporal-difference (TD) learning. Distributional reinforcement learning has been demonstrated to outperform the regular one in the recent study \citep{bellemare2017distributional}. In the policy evaluation setting, we design two new algorithms called distributional GTD2 a…
PAC-Bayesian bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss validated.
problem Generalization bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss.
method Introduced probabilistic explanations and proved PAC-Bayesian bounds using ELBO.
result MLPs with cross entropy loss inherently guarantee PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds.
This research improves PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks using convexified loss.
problem Deriving generalization bounds for classification tasks with non-convex loss functions.
method Shift focus to misclassification excess risk bounds for PAC-Bayesian classification using convex surrogate loss and leveraging PAC-Bayesian relative bounds in expectation.
result Improved PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks with convex surrogate loss.
New algorithms minimize PAC-Bayesian C-Bound for majority voting, leading to scalable and accurate predictors.
problem Improving majority vote classifiers using PAC-Bayesian bounds.
method Directly optimizing PAC-Bayesian guarantees on the C-Bound with gradient descent.
result Self-bounding majority vote learning algorithms with scalable and accurate predictors.
New PAC-Bayesian bounds for multi-view learning using Rényi divergence.
problem Applying PAC-Bayesian theory to multi-view learning.
method Introducing novel PAC-Bayesian bounds based on Rényi divergence for multi-view learning.
result Efficient optimization algorithms that align with theoretical bounds.
PAC-Bayesian bounds for stochastic LTI systems derived.
problem Error bounds for stochastic LTI systems.
method PAC-Bayesian theory applied to autonomous stochastic LTI models.
result Error bounds for stochastic LTI systems derived.
New bound relaxes uniform gradient norm assumptions for PAC-Bayesian bounds.
problem Generalization bounds with strict assumptions like uniformly bounded loss.
method Relax uniform bounds assumptions to on-average bounded loss and gradient norm.
result Proposes a new generalization bound with a surrogate of model complexity.
New PAC-Bayesian bounds provide practical guarantees for neural networks.
problem Loose derandomization step in PAC-Bayesian bounds for deterministic models.
method Introduce disintegrated PAC-Bayesian bounds for deterministic models.
result Significant practical improvement over state-of-the-art bounds.
Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference improve regret bounds in stochastic linear bandits.
problem Theoretical justification for Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference in stochastic linear bandits.
method Proposed a theoretical framework to analyze approximate inference impact and conducted frequentist regret analysis on LinTS and LinBUCB.
result LinTS and LinBUCB preserve their original regret upper bounds with larger constant terms in approximate inference settings.
We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold . The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2…
Bayesian algorithm improves best-arm identification within fixed budget.
problem Maximizing probability of identifying optimal arm within fixed budget.
method Proposes Bayesian elimination algorithm and derives upper bound on misidentification probability.
result Upper bound on misidentification probability reflects prior quality and matches lower bound.
Paper derives PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI systems learning from empirical data.
problem Characterizing predictive power of LTI systems learned from data.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI stochastic dynamical systems with inputs.
result Finite-sample error bounds for learning algorithms of LTI systems.
The study improves PAC-Bayesian bounds for adversarial generative models.
problem Improving generalization bounds for adversarial generative models.
method Extending PAC-Bayesian theory to generative models, developing bounds for Wasserstein and total variation distances.
result New training objectives for Wasserstein and Energy-Based GANs.
Stochastic Bayesian Neural Network improves scalability and performance.
problem Challenges in calculating posterior distribution in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Maximizes Evidence Lower Bound using Stochastic Evidence Lower Bound objective function.
result Demonstrates improved performance and scalability over previous algorithms.
PAC-Bayesian theory applied to data-dependent hypothesis sets yields uniform generalization bounds.
problem Proving uniform generalization bounds for data-dependent hypothesis sets.
method Applying PAC-Bayesian framework on 'random sets' and considering data-dependent hypothesis sets.
result Data-dependent uniform generalization bounds are proven, providing tighter and unified results.
This work introduces a new data-driven estimator for the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound using score matching.
problem Benchmarking the performance of statistical estimators and providing a principled metric for system design and optimization.
method Score matching technique to estimate the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound from training data.
result Developed novel non-asymptotic bounds on the score matching error and the Bayesian CRB estimator.
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and deterministic predictors often performs well in practice. To fill this gap, we develop…
Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors. PAC-Bayesian methods overcome this problem by providing bounds that hold regardless …
This paper improves Bayesian optimization methods with tighter regret bounds and practical solutions.
problem Improving Bayesian optimization methods with tighter regret bounds and practical solutions.
method The paper analyzes and compares different acquisition functions (GP-UCB, TS, PIMS) to achieve tighter Bayesian cumulative regret bounds and address practical issues.
result PIMS achieves the tighter BCR bound and avoids hyperparameter tuning, unlike GP-UCB and TS.
Improved Bayesian optimisation method using randomised Gaussian process UCB.
problem Improving performance in Bayesian optimisation.
method Developed a modified Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) acquisition function.
result The method achieves better performance than GP-UCB in various problems.
Paper improves regret bounds for Gaussian process upper confidence bound in Bayesian optimization.
problem Minimizing regret in Gaussian process bandit optimization.
method Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm with refined analysis.
result Achieves cumulative regret under squared exponential kernel.
New algorithm minimizes Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits.
problem Minimizing Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits.
method Proposes a new algorithm that directly minimizes upper bounds on Bayesian regret using conic optimization.
result Upper bounds are tight and guarantee superior performance compared to LCB.
This work improves bounds on Bayesian coreset quality.
problem Limitations of existing theoretical analysis of Bayesian coresets.
method Develops general upper and lower bounds on KL divergence.
result Demonstrates flexibility of new theoretical bounds in various models.
The study examines how equivariance in networks affects generalization error using PAC-Bayesian bounds.
problem Understanding how equivariance in networks impacts generalization error.
method Utilized PAC-Bayesian analysis for equivariant networks, deriving norm-based bounds for generalization error.
result The bound indicates that using larger group size in the model improves generalization error.
New PAC-Bayesian bounds for online learning with data streams.
problem Challenges of traditional PAC-Bayesian bounds in dynamic data collection.
method Developed new PAC-Bayesian bounds in online learning framework, using updated regret definition and batch-to-online conversion.
result PAC-Bayesian bounds hold for online learning with dependent data and non-convex losses.
New risk measures control subgroup imbalances, improving PAC-Bayesian bounds.
problem Insufficient risk bounds for subgroup imbalances in data.
method Introduce constrained f-entropic risk measures and derive PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result First disintegrated PAC-Bayesian guarantees beyond standard risks.
PAC-Bayesian-Like Error Bound for a Class of Linear Time-Invariant Stochastic State-Space Modelsstat.ML
Paper derives an error bound for stochastic LTI systems.
problem Stochastic LTI systems with inputs in control engineering and econometrics.
method PAC-Bayesian-Like error bound derivation.
result Derived an error bound for stochastic LTI systems.
Proposes a new generalization bound for Bayesian deep nets without strict assumptions.
problem Lack of generalization bounds for Bayesian deep nets without strict assumptions.
method Exploits contractivity of Log-Sobolev inequalities to add a loss-gradient norm term to the generalization bound.
result Introduces a new generalization bound for Bayesian deep nets that avoids strict assumptions.
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…
Unified framework for deriving generalization bounds in supervised learning.
problem Generalization error bounds in supervised learning.
method Data Processing Inequality PAC-Bayesian framework.
result Unified bounds on binary Kullback-Leibler generalization gap for various divergences.
A new error bound improves safety in Bayesian optimization.
problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models.
method Introducing a novel error bound using Wiener kernel regression for Gaussian processes and noise.
result The new error bound provides larger safety regions than previous methods.
PAC-Bayesian learning bounds are of the utmost interest to the learning community. Their role is to connect the generalization ability of an aggregation distribution to its empirical risk and to its Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to some prior distribution . Unfortunately, most of the available bounds …
We present two alternative ways to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis to sequences of dependent random variables. The first is based on a new lemma that enables to bound expectations of convex functions of certain dependent random variables by expectations of the same functions of independent Bernoulli random variables. This …
Paper introduces new PAC-Bayesian bounds for multi-view domain adaptation.
problem Lack of attention to multi-view learning in domain adaptation.
method Adapted distance measure for multi-view domain adaptation using Pac-Bayesian theory.
result Introduced novel Pac-Bayesian bounds for multi-view domain adaptation.
Sharp bounds for Dirichlet sums lead to improved Bayesian algorithm analysis.
problem Improving Bayesian algorithm performance through precise deviation bounds.
method Novel integral representation of Dirichlet sum density, Gaussian approximation, complex analysis.
result Significantly sharpened regret bounds for Multinomial Thompson Sampling.
Novel mutual information bound improves statistical inference rates.
problem Improving statistical inference rates in Bayesian nonparametrics.
method Introduces a novel mutual information bound.
result Improved contraction rates for fractional posteriors.
We propose an extensive analysis of the behavior of majority votes in binary classification. In particular, we introduce a risk bound for majority votes, called the C-bound, that takes into account the average quality of the voters and their average disagreement. We also propose an extensive PAC-Bayesian analysis that …
Proposes MCBO for causal Bayesian optimization with model learning and regret bounds.
problem Maximizing downstream variables in unknown structural models.
method Model-based causal Bayesian optimization (MCBO) that learns full system models and trades off exploration and exploitation.
result First non-asymptotic bounds for CBO and practical implementation showing superior performance.
New bounds for Bayesian bandits show prior improves performance.
problem Improving regret bounds for Bayesian bandits.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm with finite-time logarithmic regret bounds.
result Derives and upper bounds for Bayesian bandits.
Study on Bayesian reinforcement learning performance bounds.
problem Achieving optimal performance in model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning.
method Defining minimum Bayesian regret, deriving upper bounds using relative entropy and Wasserstein distance, and applying these to specific MDP cases.
result Upper bounds on minimum Bayesian regret for MDPs, including specific cases like MAB and online optimization with partial feedback.
New PAC-Bayesian bounds improve Sliced-Wasserstein distances.
problem Improving statistical properties of Sliced-Wasserstein distances.
method Leveraging PAC-Bayesian theory to provide bounds and learning procedures.
result PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for adaptive SW distances.
Data selection boosts fact memorization in language models.
problem Language models struggle to accurately memorize factual knowledge.
method Formalizes fact memorization, proposes data selection schemes based on training loss.
result Data selection boosts fact accuracy to model capacity and improves performance.
High-dimensional near-optimal experiment design for drug discovery via Bayesian sparse samplingcs.LG
Bayesian methods improve drug discovery experiment design.
problem Optimizing drug screening experiments in high-dimensional data.
method Bayesian inference and optimisation with upper confidence bound algorithms, Thompson sampling, and sparse tree search.
result Sparse tree search techniques outperform other methods in drug toxicity screening.