Improved model-based estimation through tempered Bayes filter.
problem Improving predictive accuracy in partially-observable stochastic systems.
method Developed tempered Bayes filter combining likelihood and full posterior tempering.
result Tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance over the Bayes filter baseline.
The article applies empirical Bayes to improve initial parameter choices in collaborative filtering models.
problem Improving initial parameter choices in collaborative filtering models.
method Formulated and implemented empirical Bayes to tune hyperparameters in a Bayesian collaborative filtering setup.
result Empirical Bayes can provide good initial parameter choices, especially for datasets where MCMC struggles.
In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli which caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the pr…
The paper connects a proximal method to stochastic filters and Bayes updates.
problem Large-scale optimization and probabilistic methods for regression.
method Explicit form of Bayes updates for linear regression and general sequential setting.
result The incremental proximal method can be realized by the Kalman filter for linear-quadratic cost functions.
Robust Kalman filtering method for outlier detection.
problem Outliers and misspecified measurement models in state-space models.
method Combines generalised Bayesian inference with Kalman filters for robustness and efficiency.
result Matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods at lower computational cost.
Paper uses optimal transport for Bayesian filtering, deriving new EnKF and FPF formulations.
problem Bayesian filtering for nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian observations.
method Optimal transport theory applied to Bayes' law, constructing Brenier maps.
result New variational formulations of EnKF and FPF for non-Gaussian settings.
New sampling-based approach for filtering problems using multiplicative Gaussian functions.
problem Approximate inference in filtering problems.
method Approximates distribution with a weighted sum of continuous functions using sampling for multiplications.
result Preliminary experiments show potential of the new method compared to particle filters.
We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning and identification of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome intractable inference distributions via variational inference. Thus, it can handle …
Improved sigma-point filters reduce quadrature error bias.
problem Quadrature error in sigma-point filters leads to poorly calibrated estimates.
method Bayes-Sard quadrature method for sigma-point filters.
result Better-calibrated state estimates with improved RMSE.
The paper proposes a new method for user-movie recommendation systems.
problem Improving recommendation accuracy in collaborative filtering.
method Uses Empirical Bayes with Reversible Jump Markov Chain in a Bayesian setup.
result Demonstrates improved hyper-parameter tuning and recommendation accuracy.
Defense against spam filter attacks using mixture models.
problem Data poisoning attacks on naive Bayes spam filters.
method Mixture of naive Bayes models to isolate attacks.
result Mixture model isolates attacks in a second component, preserving original spam.
PF-RNNs use particle filtering to model uncertainty in RNNs for better sequential data prediction.
problem Highly variable and noisy sequential data.
method PF-RNNs maintain a latent state distribution as a set of particles, updating with Bayes rule.
result PF-RNNs outperform standard RNNs on various sequence prediction tasks.
GP-SUM filters complex non-Gaussian states using Gaussian Processes.
problem Stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs.
method GP-SUM combines sampling and probabilistic Bayes filters, using Gaussian Processes for dynamic and observation models.
result GP-SUM outperforms other filters on benchmarks and predicts non-Gaussian states accurately.
We compare in this paper several feature selection methods for the Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC) when the data under study are described by a large number of redundant binary indicators. Wrapper approaches guided by the NBC estimation of the classification error probability out-perform filter approaches while retaining …
PSRNNs combine RNN and PSR insights for system filtering and prediction.
problem Modeling dynamical systems efficiently and accurately.
method Combines insights from RNNs and PSRs using bilinear transfer functions and tensor decomposition.
result PSRNNs outperform other models in filtering and prediction tasks across multiple datasets.
Improved Kalman filter for non-linear, non-Gaussian data.
problem Estimating hidden variables with non-linear, non-Gaussian observations.
method Reproduces and extends Burkhart et al.'s discriminative Kalman filter.
result Enhanced filter performance for complex observation models.
Bayes Factor Surprise enables rapid adaptation to changing environments.
problem Learning in volatile, non-stationary stochastic environments.
method Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model with a Bayes Factor Surprise probability ratio.
result Novel surprise-based algorithms improve parameter estimation and performance.
A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functio…
Efficient GP models with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods.
problem Modeling non-Gaussian likelihoods in Gaussian Process (GP) regression.
method State space formulation for efficient GP models, combining LA, VB, ADF, and EP schemes.
result Efficient inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods in GP models.
A new numerical scheme approximates nonlinear filtering densities for noisy and partial measurements.
problem Approximating nonlinear filtering densities for noisy and partial measurements.
method Deep splitting scheme applied to the Fokker--Planck equation followed by Bayes' formula.
result Convergence rate established for the numerical scheme under parabolic Hörmander condition.
Develops Bayesian filtering for online learning and related problems.
problem Sequential machine learning challenges, especially non-stationarity, model misspecification, and high dimensionality.
method Modular adaptive framework, provably robust filter, and sequential parameter updates.
result Improved performance in dynamic, high-dimensional, and misspecified models.
A new ML-based filter improves data assimilation for nonlinear systems.
problem Improving data assimilation for nonlinear systems using ensemble methods.
method Developed a machine learning-based conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) integrating ANN and linear functions.
result ML-EnCMF outperforms EnKF and likelihood-based EnCMF in nonlinear systems.
Convolutional Bayesian filtering generalizes state estimation by incorporating inequality conditions.
problem Standard Bayesian filtering assumes exact conditional probabilities, limiting its applicability.
method Introducing inequality conditions transforms conditional probabilities into convolutional forms, expanding the filtering framework.
result Convolutional Bayesian filtering encompasses standard Bayesian filtering and allows for more nuanced model consideration.
New algorithms for high-dimensional HMMs reduce complexity by discarding non-local factors.
problem High-dimensional HMMs are computationally expensive to filter and smooth.
method Approximate filtering and smoothing via locality in factor graphs, avoiding exponential cost.
result Error bounds in local total variation norm are dimension-free, improving scalability.
Filtered conformal ellipsoids for graph-native time series
problem Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series
method Filtered conformal ellipsoids
result Sharper at-target ellipsoids than static-covariance and non-filter baselines
Deep learning models need accurate uncertainty quantification for safe use.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models, especially for black box models.
method Model multivariate uncertainty for regression problems using neural networks, incorporating aleatoric and epistemic sources of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Train using direct multivariate Gaussian density loss function and end-to-end Kalman filter training.
result Accurate multivariate uncertainty quantification improves Kalman filter performance for in-domain and out-of-domain evaluation data.
A novel Bayesian computation method using importance weighting improves numerical stability and performance.
problem Bayesian computation stability and performance issues.
method Nonparametric approach via feature means, importance weighting, and kernel Bayes' rule.
result Importance weighted kernel Bayes' rule yields superior numerical stability and performance.
DKF uses nonlinear, Gaussian approximations for better neural decoding.
problem Improving neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces.
method Developed a Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF) for nonlinear, non-Gaussian state estimation.
result DKF successfully enabled quadriplegic users to control devices using mental imagery.
This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowl…
Collaborative filtering (CF) and content-based filtering (CBF) have widely been used in information filtering applications. Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses which is why researchers have developed hybrid systems. This paper proposes a novel approach to unify CF and CBF in a probabilistic framework, n…
Adaptive framework improves NB accuracy by fusing two index categories.
problem Challenges in attribute weighted NB, especially fusion of two indexes.
method Proposes ATFNB framework using switching factor to fuse two index categories.
result ATFNB outperforms basic NB and state-of-the-art models.
Neural Jump ODE improves continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly sampled time series.
problem Theoretical guarantees for continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly observed time series.
method Introducing Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) that models conditional expectation between observations with neural ODEs and jumps.
result Theoretical guarantees for the L2-optimal prediction are provided, showing convergence of model output to optimal prediction. Hidden Markov Neural Networks balance adaptation and forgetting in time-series data.
problem Balancing adaptation to new data and forgetting outdated information in time-series forecasting.
method Modeling weights as hidden states of a Hidden Markov model, using a filtering algorithm for learning a variational approximation of the posterior distribution over weights, and employing sequential Bayes by Backprop with variational DropConnect for regularization.
result Achieves strong predictive performance and effective uncertainty quantification on various tasks.
Generative Bayesian Inference uses GANs for approximate posterior sampling.
problem Bayesian inference without explicit likelihoods.
method Develops Bayesian GAN (B-GAN) for posterior simulation.
result B-GAN achieves highly competitive performance in posterior sampling.
Impute missing events in continuous-time sequences using particle smoothing.
problem Missing events in continuous-time sequences.
method Particle smoothing with trainable bidirectional LSTM proposals.
result Imputed sequences have low Bayes risk compared to ground truth.
BI-EqNO improves Bayesian inference with flexible neural operators.
problem Inaccurate estimation of marginal likelihoods in approximate Bayesian methods.
method Equivariant neural operator framework for generalized approximate Bayesian inference.
result BI-EqNO enhances both deterministic and stochastic approaches to Bayesian inference.
Flexible online learning framework for neural dynamics.
problem Learning latent neural state and dynamics from complex neural recordings.
method Stochastic gradient variational Bayes approach for joint optimization.
result Framework can optimize nonlinear dynamical system, observation model, and recognition model.
The study identifies impactful news articles based on liquidity changes, improving asset return prediction.
problem Evaluating the sentiment of financial news articles for institutional investors.
method Liquidity-driven variables are used to identify impactful news articles, focusing on liquidity mode switches.
result The screened dataset leads to superior performance in short-term asset return prediction.
New uniqueness concept for adversarial Bayes classifier.
problem Understanding adversarial Bayes classifiers in binary classification.
method Developed a new notion of uniqueness and analyzed it for a family of one-dimensional data distributions.
result Improved regularity of adversarial Bayes classifiers as perturbation radius increases.
Empirical Bayes rates via variational approximations and prior decomposition.
problem Nonparametric and high-dimensional inference convergence rates.
method Variational perspective and prior decomposition.
result Empirical Bayes posterior rates derived from variational Bayes.
The study compares clustering risk in Hidden Markov and i.i.d. models, showing the Bayes classifier is nearly optimal.
problem Comparing clustering risk in Hidden Markov and i.i.d. models.
method Analysis of Bayes risk, theoretical bounds, and simulations.
result The Bayes classifier is nearly optimal for clustering in both Hidden Markov and i.i.d. models.
Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes classifier has surprised machine learning researchers by exhibiting good performance on a variety of learning problems. Encouraged by these results, researchers have looked to overcome naive Bayes primary weakness - attribute independence - and improve the performance of the algo…
We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the …
Improved Naive Bayes for text classification with small datasets.
problem Poor performance of Naive Bayes in small training datasets.
method Introducing a correlation factor to Naive Bayes estimator.
result Our method achieves better accuracy than traditional Naive Bayes.
Switching linear dynamics improves model-based reinforcement learning and system identification.
problem Complex and nonlinear systems can be approximated by linear dynamical systems.
method Bayesian inference, Variational Autoencoders, Concrete relaxations.
result Improved accuracy in learning dynamics from partial and high-dimensional observations.
Researchers prove NP-hardness of learning parameter-bounded Bayes nets.
problem Learning parameter-bounded Bayes nets is computationally hard.
method Proved NP-hardness of learning parameter-bounded Bayes nets and a promise search variant.
result Proved NP-hardness of a promise search variant of LEARN.
Universal Bayes consistency proved in metric spaces.
problem Proving universal Bayes consistency in metric spaces.
method Extending a multiclass learning algorithm and proving its Bayes-consistency in all metric spaces.
result First learning algorithm universally strongly Bayes-consistent in all metric spaces.
Deep learning improves Bayes factor computation for likelihood-free models.
problem Computing Bayes factors for likelihood-free models is challenging.
method Proposes a deep learning estimator of Bayes factors using simulated data.
result Establishes consistency of the Deep Bayes Factor estimator.